Is the naphtha resource from local refineries in Shandong actually in short supply?

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Currently, the naphtha resources from local refineries in Shandong can be generally divided into three categories: naphtha for use within the refinery, naphtha supplied directly, and naphtha available for free export. Naphtha used internally by refineries accounts for about 42% of the total refinery naphtha volume; it does not enter the market and is primarily used as a raw material for reforming and gasoline production ； In addition, free-export naphtha accounts for about 41% of the total volume of refinery naphtha; this type of resource has good market liquidity and is primarily used as a raw material for producing trade gasoline and solvent oils ； Direct supply of naphtha falls somewhere in between; it is mostly used as a feedstock for reforming, with the distribution pattern primarily being from Plant A to Plant B. However, such resources are rather special: when the operating rate of the reforming units is high, they are almost entirely used as directly supplied resources. When the reforming units have a insufficient demand for naphtha, they enter the market as resources available for free export. Therefore, although their total volume is relatively small, they still exert a certain impact on the domestic naphtha market. Based on production volume, the available amount of naphtha from local refineries in Shandong is approximately 154,200–187,500 tons per month. In addition, the volume of naphtha from refineries in the Northeast that flows south to Shandong has continued to decline recently, at around 6,000–8,000 tons per month. When this is combined with the coal-based naphtha that reaches Shandong as well, the total amount of naphtha available for use in that region amounts to approximately 175,000–210,000 tons per month. From the demand side, naphtha used in the production of traded gasoline still accounts for a large share of the total available resources. However, since the proportion of naphtha used in producing National V or National IV gasoline varies significantly, and operations related to the production of traded gasoline have become more opaque after the \"3.15\" incident, it is difficult to determine the exact demand for naphtha in this context. Based on Zhuochuang’s monitoring data of naphtha in the Shandong region, it is possible to estimate that approximately 60% of the total amount of naphtha in use there can be used as a rough figure; this would result in a total of around 159,300 tons per month of naphtha used for the production of gasoline for trade purposes. At present, the monthly production volume of non-standard solvent oils by local refineries in Shandong is around 60,000 tons. Since solvent oil results in relatively low losses of raw naphtha during production, the total amount of naphtha consumed is approximately 63,000 tons per month. Currently, the monthly demand for naphtha available for circulation in Shandong is around 222,300 tons, while the supply volume is approximately 175,000–210,000 tons, resulting in a certain supply gap. Therefore, it is reasonable to say that the resources of naphtha available for circulation from local refineries in Shandong are limited.