Summary of urea market conditions across China in July 2016

Urea price trends across China Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2016-07-01 Clicks: 3 The demand for urea in certain agricultural sectors is slightly stronger, which has led to a slight increase in prices by some manufacturers. However, there is no increase in industrial demand, and supply remains ample; as a result, the overall urea market trend remains stable but weak. In the Shandong region, the prevailing ex-factory price of urea remains stable at 1240–1260 yuan per ton (the same unit is used thereafter). Demand from the agricultural sector is somewhat better, and some manufacturers have raised their prices slightly; however, the ex-factory price for lower-quality urea stays at 1210 yuan, with significant discounts available for shipments over long distances ； A few manufacturers in the Hebei region are still able to ship to ports, and the agricultural situation is somewhat better; the standard export price of urea has increased by 10 yuan, reaching 1200–1220 yuan, with discounts available at the time of purchase ； A few manufacturers in the Henan region have raised their prices by 10 yuan, following the example of those in Shandong; meanwhile, the standard factory prices remain stable at 1210–1250 yuan, with considerable room for discounts when selling to external customers ； Although the weather in Jiangsu is currently clear, which facilitates better preparation of agricultural fertilizers, the prevailing ex-factory price of urea in the region remains stable at 1300–1330 yuan, with discounts available at the time of purchase due to the presence of cheaper supplies from other provinces ； The agricultural demand gap in Shaanxi region is very small; the standard factory price for urea has dropped to 1240–1280 yuan, with some exceptions... (The omitted details can be found in the member area; same applies below.) ； Crop growth in the Xinjiang region is average, and agricultural demand is relatively low. Urea manufacturers continue to focus on outbound shipments; however, competition in this area is fierce. As a result, the prevailing ex-factory price of urea locally has dropped to around 1,050 yuan per ton for outbound shipments…… ； Although the production rate in the Chongqing area remains low, there is a slightly greater supply of urea from other provinces; as a result, the mainstream ex-factory price of urea locally has dropped to 1310–1320 yuan, with lower-quality urea being sent to other regions…… ； In the Heilongjiang region, corn growth has been mediocre, and the application of agricultural fertilizers has progressed slowly. The delivered price of urea from Inner Mongolia is merely... Therefore, the prevailing ex-factory price of urea locally has dropped by another 30 yuan, now standing at 1,230–1,290 yuan. This price... In addition, the delivery price for large and small particle urea at Yantai Port is…… ； Market participants expect the Indian Ministry of Fertilizers to make a decision on a new tender for urea purchases at the beginning of July, with the new tender to be held in mid-July. Overall, the situation regarding agricultural fertilizer preparation in certain areas is slightly better; local urea prices have seen a brief increase. In most parts of the country, demand from both industrial and agricultural sectors is average, and some urea manufacturers have some inventory available. Prices are likely to remain stable but on a downward trend in the near future. 　　Regional market prices: Unit: yuan/ton (bolded values in the table refer to large-grain urea) http://www.nmtech.com.cn/sys/sec_zxwz.jpg

Weekly Review on Urea: Prices saw a slight increase in some regions. Author/Source: Date: July 1, 2016. Click-through rate: 13. This week, the domestic urea market showed signs of stabilization, with prices rising slightly in certain areas. Improved sales around major production regions likely served as the main driving force behind this rebound in prices. The overall demand in the downstream agricultural sector remains at the expected level; the fertilizer usage pattern features a high degree of substitution with similar types of fertilizers, which results in a moderate urea market trend with price drops during peak seasons. Given the severe cost inversion, the industry believes that there is limited room for price cuts, but there are also no high expectations for price increases in the future, as the peak season for agriculture is coming to an end. By the end of the weekend, urea producers in North China were quoting prices of 1180–1200 yuan per ton, while the actual transaction prices were 1150–1170 yuan per ton ； The ex-factory price of urea in East China is 1,240–1,300 yuan per ton, while the price for local sales is 1,230–1,260 yuan per ton ； The ex-factory price in Central China is 1,250–1,320 yuan per ton, with industrial use being the main application; the actual transaction price is 1,200–1,250 yuan per ton. The agricultural market in Northeast China shows no signs of improvement; prices remain stable for now. The provisional delivered price of urea from other provinces is set at 1,300 yuan per ton, while local manufacturers are quoting prices between 1,300 and 1,320 yuan per ton ； The market situation in the southern region remains unfavorable; the wholesale price in Guangdong and Guangxi is 1,360–1,380 yuan per ton, with overall demand being weak ； Urea prices remain stable at low levels in the southwest region, with ex-plant prices in Sichuan and Chongqing around 1,350 yuan per ton ； Local sales prices for enterprises in the Northwest region range from 1,200 to 1,250 yuan per ton, while the starting price for exporting urea from Xinjiang is around 850 yuan per ton. 　　Factors affecting the situation: Domestic supply and demand: As the price gap for urea among domestic manufacturers becomes increasingly severe, some companies that had stopped production for maintenance are adopting a cautious attitude toward resuming operations. Some larger companies have chosen to carry out major repairs or reduce production in the near future. As a result, the industry’s operating rate is likely to drop below 60%, thereby allowing market supply to be brought under some control. Recently, the demand for urea in the domestic market has shown no signs of improvement, with high-nitrogen compound fertilizers, ammonium chloride, and ammonium carbonate having a significant impact on urea sales. As a result, urea manufacturers were forced to engage in joint sales or compromise by selling at lower prices; yet even so, urea sales during this peak season still declined significantly ； Fertilizer manufacturers are facing poor sales, high inventory levels, and increased production cuts, leading to a reduced demand for urea. Expectations of an oversupply and oversupply situation still exist. 　　Regarding production capacity: According to the latest statistics from China Business Network, the national urea production capacity currently stands at 78.41 million tons per year (the figures are up-to-date after excluding companies that have withdrawn from the urea market). Based on a 330-day operating period, the national daily production capacity reaches 237,600 tons. This week, the average daily total output of urea producers was 150,100 tons, with an operating rate of 63.2% for the week. 　　Urea International: International prices saw a slight decline in the fourth week of June. Small particle Chinese FOB price: $200–202 per ton (down 3–4) ； Black Sea FOB price: $183–187/ton (down 1) ； Baltic FOB price: $184–189/ton (down 5–6) ； China large particle FOB price: $203–205/ton (stable) ； Egyptian large-grain FOB price: $190–197 (an increase of 4 for high-end grades). 　　Future market forecast: Domestic urea prices are generally stable this week, with slight increases in some areas. Negative factors remain, and the domestic sales situation is uncertain. Downstream manufacturers continue to press for lower prices, and the joint marketing by the federations continues. Demand for industrial compound fertilizers is declining, and domestic demand is seen as weak in the coming period. There have been no recent developments regarding exports. Apart from the volume awaiting shipment at ports, there is roughly 300,000 tons of inventory in port; prices lack competitiveness in the international market. Short-term domestic urea prices remain stable at low levels.

When Will Urea Manufacturers Be Able to Say No to Falling Prices? Author/Source: China Agri-Materials Date: 2016-07-04 Clicks: 5 The \"cost argument\" is a tired old topic. As of the end of June, the ex-plant prices in China’s main urea-producing areas were mostly around 1,200 yuan per ton, representing a 28.6% decline on a year-on-year basis compared to 1,700 yuan per ton in Shandong during the same period last year. Having gone through the trials of the market, although some high-cost urea manufacturers ceased operations or shifted to other products, most of them were still able to reduce costs and continue production by expanding capacity and adjusting their manufacturing processes. In addition, factors taken into account when considering urea costs also include coal prices, electricity prices, etc. To the author’s knowledge, the production costs of urea manufacturers in China currently fall into the following categories: natural gas-based plants, traditional anthracite, and pulverized coal gasification. The traditional anthracite process benefits from low coal prices, allowing the cost of urea to be kept at 1250–1300 yuan per ton, of course under conditions of full capacity operation of the plant ； The advantage of pulverized coal gasification is the low cost of raw materials; the cost of urea is generally around 1,000–1,100 yuan per ton, which also depends on the plant’s operating load ； Natural gas-based plants lose their cost advantage; at full capacity, the cost of urea remains around 1,200 yuan per ton, but when the capacity is less than 70%, the cost rises to as high as 1,400–1,500 yuan per ton. In summary, based on the current domestic factory price of urea at around 1,200 yuan per ton, over 80% of urea manufacturers are operating at a loss. 　　In a buyer’s market, it’s hard to have a say. It is clearly not in the factories’ interest to sell urea at a loss for long periods, and efforts have indeed been made to reverse this situation. Whether it was the previous measures of restricting production to maintain prices, the subsequent attempts to capitalize on domestic demand, or the final resort of invoking cost considerations as a justification, none of these approaches proved effective. The overcapacity urea industry has completely turned into a buyer’s market. Tactics such as limiting production to maintain prices, creating artificial demand, or relying on cost advantages – strategies that factories hope to employ – are likely to be in vain. Urea manufacturers, who no longer have much influence in this market, are more \"aggressive,\" or as some put it, they exhibit a stronger sense of competition. The author regards it as the direct trigger for the continuous bottom-breaking in the successive bidding sales of urea. Looking back at the past two years, some high-cost urea manufacturers chose to cease production or switch to other products. Although the capacity that was phased out exceeded 4 million tons, there are still many companies that managed to survive by expanding their production or adjusting their manufacturing processes ； More recently, new low-cost urea production facilities have entered the market in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. Rough estimates suggest that China’s total urea production capacity is no less than 90 million tons. On the demand side, there are no signs of growth; instead, due to adjustments in the structure of fertilizers used in agriculture, a shrinkage in the industrial market, and the loss of export advantages, the domestic urea market is facing an increasingly severe situation of supply exceeding demand. 　　Bidding, elimination, stopping the decline. At present, the domestic urea market lacks positive factors and is surrounded by both internal and external challenges. After entering July, domestic demand will gradually enter a slow period for consumption, and dealers may continue to wait and see. Even with reduced stockpiles of urea in the fourth quarter, there will be no one willing to take risks as long as the underlying issue of overcapacity remains unresolved ； In terms of foreign trade, the situation is quite passive; as can be seen from the first two rounds of urea tenders in India, although Chinese manufacturers tried their best to offer low prices, this only stimulated foreign suppliers’ desire to negotiate even more aggressively. Following the recent prices of Korean and Taiwanese standards being below $200 per ton FOB, it has been reported that some traders are now trying to find supply at a low price of $190 per ton FOB. Faced with the competition over urea prices in both domestic and international markets, manufacturers tend to choose compromise; after all, the fear of being eliminated drives every urea company that wants to survive to participate in this chaotic bidding process. As a result, some industry insiders predict that the domestic price of urea may drop to 1,050–1,100 yuan per ton. By then, a large number of urea manufacturers will be eliminated from the market due to their inability to cover their losses. Thus, the suspension of production and withdrawal from the market became another form of \"limiting production to maintain prices,\" and it was only the urea manufacturers that persisted that had the leverage to refuse price cuts. The author is not the type to stand by and do nothing; rather, the author prefers to see urea manufacturers that lack advantages transform as soon as possible, so as to avoid becoming victims of market economy regulations.

Low demand and many substitutes – outlook for urea remains negative. Author/Source: China Agri-Materials. Date: 2016-07-04. Clicks: 5. Price cuts cannot resolve the supply-demand imbalance. “At present, the ex-factory price of urea in Xinjiang has dropped to 850–900 yuan per ton, which is undoubtedly the lowest price in the domestic market. However, price cuts do not solve the supply-demand imbalance.” ”Ma Zhenpan, general manager of Beijing Jinghui'er Biotechnology Co., Ltd., told reporters helplessly, \"Initially, the highest factory price for urea in Xinjiang was 1,150 yuan per ton. Recently, the price of urea has continued to drop; compared to the lowest price it reached last year, it is now about 100 yuan per ton lower. Even last year the price wasn’t ideal, remaining between 900 and 1,000 yuan per ton, but this year it has dropped to around 800 yuan per ton.\" ” 　　Faced with the continuous decline in urea prices, and in the absence of any positive factors, even the arrival of the summer fertilization season failed to lift urea prices above a critical level; it remained stagnant in a sluggish market. Regarding the reasons behind such a competitive situation, Ma Zhengpan stated that they mainly stem from five factors: First, it’s the age-old problem of overcapacity in the industry; the supply far exceeds demand. In terms of production, Xinjiang itself has abundant urea resources, and its production capacity has seen significant expansion in recent years. Secondly, due to low export prices, foreign manufacturers increase their production of fertilizers, which in turn leads to a rapid decline in export volumes, placing even greater pressure on domestic fertilizer companies. Thirdly, it is related to the transformation in the use of agricultural fertilizers in the market; for example, farmers’ habits regarding fertilizer use are themselves stage-based. It has evolved from organic manure at first, to urea and diammonium phosphate, to compound fertilizers later on, and now to water-soluble fertilizers – all of these represent different stages in this evolution. As fertilizer usage habits change, the demand for urea will gradually decrease. Moreover, a share exists in the entire fertilizer market; it simply shows a trend of one increasing while the other decreases. Fourth, the instability of agricultural product prices has led to a decrease in farmers’ investments. Whether it comes to field-grown food crops, cash crops, or protected agriculture, prices remain unsatisfactory, all of which dampen farmers’ enthusiasm for farming. Fifthly, it is related to **policies** to some extent; the goal of achieving zero growth in fertilizer use by 2020 will inevitably shift market attention toward high-end products, and changes will gradually occur both in the way farmers use these fertilizers and in the strategies of manufacturers. 　　Additionally, Wang Changli, deputy general manager of Qinhuangdao Wuxian Weiai Technology Development Co., Ltd., also believes that the urea market develops based on resource availability. Most urea is produced from coal and natural gas. Currently, market conditions for both coal and natural gas are unfavorable; the so-called “butterfly effect” will inevitably affect the agricultural inputs industry as well. Resolving this issue isn’t merely a matter of lowering prices. Only by continuously developing new products that align with market trends and by adjusting their marketing strategies can enterprises contribute to an improvement in the market situation. 　　There are still few positive factors to be expected in the future market. Not only has the price of urea in Xinjiang decreased, but the ex-factory price of urea in North China has also dropped to 1,230 yuan per ton, while the price of urea delivered to end-users in Shanxi is only 1,240 yuan per ton. Although it is the period for applying fertilizers in summer, the overall demand for urea is not high; compared to spring wheat, the amount of fertilizer used is less than one-fifth of that required for spring wheat. Additionally, currently manufacturers no longer recommend secondary topdressing; therefore, the number of times urea is applied as a topdressing for summer corn is also decreasing. Wang Changlei said that one reason for the decrease in urea usage is the abundance of alternative products to urea. Ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, phosphoric acid, and **phosphorus, among others, can be used as substitutes for urea in crop fertilization. In terms of price, there are alternatives that are both cheaper and more expensive than urea. 　　“Looking ahead, the sluggish situation for urea is set to continue, with no positive developments expected. Top-dressing for summer corn will not lead to a slight increase in prices, as is the case with wheat; rather, the demand for such top-dressing is low. The top-dressing period occurs in July, and its impact on prices is minimal. After this period, the market enters a slack season, so there will be no upward fluctuations in urea prices in the subsequent period. ”Wang Changlei said. 　　It is precisely because urea experiences little fluctuation in later stages, and since it represents a rigid demand, farmers benefit from this situation as the purchase cost remains low; it is mainly the manufacturers who are affected. “Given the stage of transformation that both the market and products are undergoing, the future outlook for urea in terms of the market is not very pessimistic. During this transition period, it is possible that one day urea will be used as a raw material or as a technical additive, rather than being sold directly to end-users, which could lead to a decline in its market share. ”Ma Zhengpan expressed his opinion: “In the short term, urea prices are on a downward trend. In another month, there will be a situation where demand exists but no supply is available, resulting in a significant drop in demand.” Today’s farmers tend to buy fertilizers when prices are high and avoid buying them when prices drop; therefore, the lower urea prices become in the future, the less they will purchase of this fertilizer. ” 　　According to reporters, the planting structure in the Northeast region is changing; farmers are switching part of their corn cultivation to soybeans in order to reduce costs. On this matter, Ma Zhenpan believes that changes in the planting structure are primarily determined by climate conditions. The Northeast region is suitable for soybean cultivation due to its favorable climate and soil conditions, and there are regional differences between the north and the south. Wang Changlei also believes that farmers in North China still choose to grow corn, but they opt for lower-cost inputs – whether it’s fertilizers, pesticides, or seeds – and there are many farmers who choose the cheaper options. Many salespeople from manufacturers fail to meet their targets when it comes to fertilizer sales during the summer, which is undoubtedly another factor that dampens enthusiasm in the summer market.

Urea price trends across China Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2016-07-05 Clicks: 28 The urea market sees slightly better demand from agricultural sectors in certain areas, leading some manufacturers to raise prices; meanwhile, industrial demand remains steady and low. There is an ample supply of urea, so the overall market trend remains weak but stable. Demand from the agricultural sector is slightly better; since the weekend, some manufacturers in Shandong have raised their prices by 10–30 yuan per ton. The current average ex-factory price is around 1260 yuan, while some high-end products are priced at 1290 yuan. The price upon receipt in Linyi is… (details available in the member area); however, the ex-factory price for shipments over long distances remains below 1200 yuan ； Manufacturers in the Hebei region have newly received orders for shipments via ports, and a medium-sized enterprise has decided to suspend production due to losses. The main selling price of urea has increased by 20 yuan, reaching around 1230 yuan, with discounts available on purchases ； In the Henan region, following the trend in Shandong, the mainstream factory prices for urea have increased by 10 yuan, reaching 1210–1260 yuan. The pace of sales has accelerated slightly; the prices for local sales at the lower end have also risen by 10 yuan. However, there is still very little demand for the higher-end prices. shipments to distant areas remain as before…… ； In Anhui province, the main factory prices for urea have increased by 10 yuan, reaching 1240–1280 yuan; in Jiangsu province, these prices remain stable at 1300–1350 yuan. Both regions have suffered severe floods, which hinders the sales of urea ； The main ex-factory prices of urea in Hubei region have dropped to 1,270–1,300 yuan, mainly due to a slight increase in production rates, as well as the fact that the peak season for agricultural demand has passed ； The agricultural demand gap in the Ningxia region is very small; the prevailing factory price of urea has dropped by 30 yuan, to around 1150 yuan…… ； In the Xinjiang region, both local sales and outbound shipments of urea have performed averagely. Some manufacturers have lowered their local selling prices by 50–100 yuan, while there is more room for negotiation regarding outbound shipments. Overall, the situation regarding agricultural fertilizer preparation in certain areas is slightly better; local urea prices have seen a slight increase, but this trend is unlikely to persist for long. In most parts of the country, demand from both industrial and agricultural sectors is average, with some urea manufacturers having modest inventory levels. Prices are likely to remain stable in the near term. Given the limited domestic demand and the lack of support from exports, prices may once again start to decline after mid-month. 　　Regional market prices: Unit: yuan/ton (bolded in the table refers to large-grain urea) 　　

Has the ultimate showdown among urea manufacturers begun? Author/Source: Date: 2016-07-05 Clicks: 35 As of the end of June, the ex-factory prices of urea in the main production areas were mostly around 1,200 yuan per ton. Compared with the same period last year, when the prices in Shandong were 1,700 yuan, in Hebei 1,720 yuan, in Shanxi 1,680 yuan, and in Henan 1,700 yuan, these ex-factory prices dropped by 28.6% to 30.2% on a year-on-year basis. In the industry’s view, the most problematic aspect of the urea market is not the decline in prices, but rather the situation where the costs for urea manufacturers are higher than their revenues. 　　“The tired talk about \"cost theory\" For a long time, the issue of urea costs has been repeatedly discussed by those in the industry. Whenever urea prices fall, industry insiders step forward to mention the role of costs as a factor supporting prices, only for another group to refute this argument by saying that it is market supply and demand that determine prices. As a result, the urea industry has developed the peculiar habit of considering costs but not using them to determine the lower limit for price drops. However, this year is somewhat special. Since the second half of last year, various negative factors have contributed to a bleak market environment, and the urea industry has witnessed an unprecedented sharp decline in prices. 　　The author has also conducted several analyses of urea costs; in the past, the production cost of urea often exceeded 1,500 yuan, making it difficult to understand how companies managed to survive under such severe unfavorable conditions. Today, after going through the trials of the market, some high-cost urea manufacturers have stopped production or switched to other products, while most companies are still able to continue operating by expanding production and adjusting their manufacturing processes to reduce costs. 　　In addition, the factors affecting urea costs also include coal prices, electricity prices, etc. It is understood that currently, domestic urea manufacturers primarily use three types of production facilities: those powered by natural gas, traditional anthracite, and coal gasification. Among them, the traditional anthracite process benefits from low coal prices, allowing the cost of urea to be kept between 1,250 and 1,300 yuan, of course under full capacity operation ； The advantage of powder coal gasification lies in the low cost of raw materials; the cost of urea is generally between 1,000 and 1,100 yuan, which again depends on the load of the plant ； Natural gas plants have lost their cost advantage; even at full capacity, the cost of urea remains around 1200 yuan, while if the capacity is less than 70%, the cost rises to 1400–1500 yuan. Given the current domestic factory price of urea at around 1,200 yuan, over 80% of urea manufacturers are operating at a loss. 　　Buyers have little bargaining power in a buyer’s market. It is clearly not in companies’ interest to sell urea at a loss for long periods, and they have made efforts to reverse this situation. However, neither production restrictions to maintain prices, nor attempts to capitalize on domestic demand, nor the argument of cost support have proven effective; the overcapacity in the urea industry has now turned it into a pure buyer’s market. Urea manufacturers, having lost their voice in decision-making, have become more \"aggressive\" – or rather, more competitive – and the author views this as the direct cause of the continuous decline in prices resulting from round after round of competitive bidding for urea. 　　Looking back at the past two years, some high-cost urea manufacturers chose to shut down or switch to other production activities. Although the capacity that was phased out exceeded 4 million tons, there are still many companies that managed to survive by expanding their production or adjusting their manufacturing processes ； In recent years, new low-cost urea production facilities have also entered the market in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. Rough estimates suggest that China’s total urea production capacity is no less than 90 million tons. On the demand side, there has been no growth; instead, due to adjustments in the structure of fertilizers used in agriculture, a shrinkage in the industrial market, and the loss of export advantages, the situation of surplus has become even more problematic. 　　Bidding, elimination, and stopping the decline – At present, the urea market is facing challenges both internally and externally. After entering July, domestic demand for urea will gradually enter a slow period of consumption, and distributors will continue to wait and see. Even during the off-season urea storage period in the fourth quarter, not many distributors will be willing to take the risk of participating in such storage until the root problem of overcapacity is resolved. In terms of foreign trade, the situation is quite passive; as can be seen from the first two rounds of urea tenders in India, Chinese manufacturers tried to compromise by offering lower prices, but this only heightened the bargaining desire of foreign suppliers. Following the recent emergence of Korean and Taiwanese standards with an FOB price below $200, it has been reported recently that some traders are attempting to find suppliers who can offer goods at an even lower FOB price of $190. 　　Faced with the competition over urea prices in both domestic and international markets, and driven by the belief that failure to compete means elimination, every urea manufacturer seeking to survive joins the race of chaotic price bidding. Some industry insiders predict that the domestic price of urea could drop to 1,050–1,100 yuan; at that point, many urea manufacturers will be forced out of the market due to their inability to bear the losses. Thus, the discontinuation of production and withdrawal from the market became another form of \"production restriction to maintain prices,\" with only those companies that persisted gaining the ability to resist price drops. The author prefers to see urea manufacturers lacking advantages transform as soon as possible, so as to avoid becoming victims of market economic regulation.

China’s fertilizer price index falls again Author/Source: Agricultural Inputs News Date: 2016-07-05 Clicks: 16 On July 4, the China Urine Wholesale Price Index (CNPI) released by the China Agricultural Inputs Distribution Association was 1396.24 points, down 10.34 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.74%； A decrease of 422.29 points on a year-on-year basis, representing a decline of 23.22% ； It dropped by 467.01 points from the base period, a decline of 25.06%. China’s urea retail price index (CNRI) stood at 1,476.31 points, down 10.94 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.74% ； A decrease of 398.09 points on a year-on-year basis, representing a decline of 21.24% ； It dropped by 428.65 points from the base period, representing a decline of 22.50%. 　　On July 4, China’s Phosphoric Diammonium Wholesale Price Index (CPPI) was 2648.22 points, down 20.29 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.76% ； A decrease of 306.94 points on a year-on-year basis, representing a decline of 10.39% ； It dropped by 573.55 points from the base period, representing a decline of 17.80%. China’s Diammonium Phosphate Retail Price Index (CPRI) stood at 2,826.92 points, down 12.77 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.45% ； It dropped by 548.00 points from the base period, representing a decline of 16.24%. 　　On July 4, China’s Potassium Chloride Wholesale Price Index (CKPI) was 1,958.09 points, down 14.34 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.73% ； A decrease of 77.01 points on a year-on-year basis, representing a decline of 3.78% ； It dropped by 1,332.50 points from the base period, representing a decline of 40.49%. 　　On July 4, the China Fertilizer Wholesale Price Index (CFCI) stood at 1725.31 points, down 12.90 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.74% ； A decrease of 354.71 points on a year-on-year basis, representing a decline of 17.05% ； It dropped by 653.56 points from the base period, representing a decline of 27.47%. China’s Compound Fertilizer Retail Price Index (CCRI) stood at 2311.95 points, down 3.09 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.13% ； It dropped by 134.76 points from the base period, representing a decline of 5.51%.

Bearish outlook for nitrogen fertilizers; contracts in India coming to an end; smooth shipments of phosphate fertilizers. Author/Source: Agricultural Inputs News. Date: 2016-07-05. Clicks: 18. Nitrogen fertilizers: Last week, urea prices continued to fall, with reduced demand and fewer inquiries being the main reasons for this decline; the price trend is expected to remain bearish in July. The CIF price (per ton, the same below) in markets with strong demand remains stable or shows a slight decline. In Brazil, the CIF price for large-grain urea is $202–209, while in the Thai market the CIF price has dropped to $214–215. 　　To compete with urea from Turkey and Egypt, the offshore price of urea in the Black Sea has dropped to around $180. The FOB price for Russian goods from the Baltic Sea is $190–$194, but there is a risk of it dropping to $180 in late July. 　　Producers in Egypt and Algeria still have large quantities of urea waiting to be sold in July; therefore, this region is likely to be the most vulnerable part of the urea market. 　　Egypt has 7 large-scale urea production projects in operation, with output far exceeding that of the same period last year; however, exports have not increased, remaining fixed at 270,000 tons per month. European buyers are waiting for urea prices to drop in the second half of the year, with transaction volumes expected to be higher from September compared to July and August. The FOB price at the port of New Orleans, USA, is $170 per short ton. Since the demand for fertilizers in spring has passed, there is little possibility of a price rebound. 　　Potash fertilizer BPC has achieved \"significant progress\" in the major potash fertilizer contract negotiations in India from July 2016 to June 2017; although official details of the contract have not yet been announced, results are expected soon. Rumors suggest that India rejected another supplier’s offer of $240 FOB (including an 180-day letter of credit). It seems that the prices from any supplier this year will be significantly lower than last year’s $332. Until large-scale contracts are signed in China, Indian prices will serve as the benchmark for the global potash market. It is expected that India’s demand for potash fertilizer this year will remain within normal levels, with the import demand in the next phase ranging from 4 million to 4.2 million tons. 　　An agreement has been reached between Russia and Bangladesh, under which Ural Potash will supply 150,000 tons of potash to the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC). Additionally, a representative of BADC negotiated with Belorusian Potash Company in Minsk last week, and an agreement is expected to be signed soon. 　　There’s no activity in the spot market. In Northwestern Europe, as it is currently the off-season for fertilizer use, the price of large-grained potassium chloride has seen a slight decline. 　　The combination of low overall demand, a decline in palm oil production, and the delayed signing of large contracts by China has led to a bleak situation in Malaysia’s potash fertilizer market. However, none of the potash fertilizer suppliers admit to concluding deals at lower prices in the tenders held in Malaysia. Demand for potash in Brazil remains strong, but the CIF price of large-grained potassium chloride fluctuates only between $210 and $225 due to intense competition among sellers. In the coming weeks, once the new contract prices in India are determined, spot market prices will be adjusted accordingly. Suppliers hope that new contracts in India can be finalized sooner; only then can off-the-shelf buyers make purchases based on Indian prices, and the overall demand for the second half of the year will become clear. 　　With limited supplies of phosphate fertilizers in China, production lines in Russia shut down for maintenance, and growing import demands from Brazil, India, and Pakistan, the global phosphate fertilizer market remained very stable last week. Most producers had sold out their output for June and began selling the output scheduled for July; in particular, most of the July production from Morocco’s OCP and Russia’s PhosAgro had also been sold. Although the phosphate contract has not yet been signed, and OCP has threatened to suspend shipments to India in July, India’s purchases of phosphate fertilizers remain low due to the country’s large stockpiles of diammonium fertilizer. Pakistan concluded three deals last week at the same prices as before. 　　In the Western Hemisphere, Brazil continues to purchase diammonium phosphate at a CIF price of $350. In the near term, the international phosphate fertilizer market is expected to remain stable or see a slight decline.

Ministry of Commerce: Fertilizer prices dropped 0.2% last week Author/Source: Date: 2016-07-05 Clicks: 19 According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce, last week (from June 27 to July 3), the price index for edible agricultural products across the country decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous week, while the price index for means of production increased by 0.4% over the same period. 　　Meat prices declined slightly, with the prices of pork, beef, and mutton falling by 1.3%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively compared to the previous week. Poultry egg prices continued to fall; the prices of chicken eggs and dressed chicken dropped by 0.9% and 0.1% respectively compared to the previous week, while the price of dressed duck remained unchanged from the previous week. The average price of 6 fruits decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous week. The average price of aquatic products decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous week, with the prices of hairtail, large yellow croaker, and small yellow croaker falling by 2%, 1.7%, and 1.5% respectively. Food prices showed slight fluctuations, with rice prices falling by 0.2% compared to the previous week, while flour prices rose by 0.3%. The prices of edible oils remained generally stable; soybean oil prices stayed the same as the previous week, peanut oil prices dropped by 0.2% compared to the previous week, while canola oil prices rose by 0.2%. The average price of 30 types of vegetables increased by 0.9% compared to the previous week, with the prices of cucumbers, spinach, and leeks rising by 18.3%, 13.5%, and 9.4% respectively. 　　The prices of non-ferrous metals rose by 2.1% compared to the previous week; among them, the prices of zinc, nickel, and copper increased by 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.2% respectively, while the prices of aluminum, lead, and tin rose by 0.7%, 0.5%, and 0.2% respectively. Rubber prices rose by 1.4%, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber prices increasing by 2% and 0.6% respectively. Steel prices rose by 0.5%, marking the first increase since the end of April; among them, the prices of high-speed wire rods, deformed steel bars, and ordinary round bars increased by 0.9%, 0.8%, and 0.6% respectively. Coal prices dropped by 0.1%, with thermal coal prices falling by 0.2%; prices of anthracite and coking coal remained stable. Fertilizer prices dropped by 0.2%; the prices of urea, diammonium phosphate, and triple-composite fertilizers decreased by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively, while the price of potassium chloride remained unchanged from the previous week. The prices of basic chemical raw materials dropped by 0.4%; among them, the prices of caustic soda and sulfuric acid fell by 1.1% and 0.5% respectively, while the price of methanol rose by 0.3%. The prices of soda ash and pure benzene remained stable.

Urea price trends across China Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2016-07-07 Clicks: 19 Demand for urea in certain agricultural sectors is slightly stronger, which has led some manufacturers to raise their prices; meanwhile, industrial demand remains steady and low. The supply of urea is sufficient, so the overall market trend remains weak but stable. The prevailing ex-plant price of urea in Shandong region remains stable at around 1,260 yuan per ton (with a downward adjustment). Apart from a few manufacturers that took advantage of reduced production levels to raise their prices by 10 yuan, overall demand for new orders from manufacturers is moderate; a small number of large-scale urea producers have lowered their prices by 10 yuan ； The prevailing ex-plant price of urea in the Hebei region remains around 1,230 yuan, with moderate sales volume……(The omitted part can be found in the member area; the same applies below.) ； In the Henan region, the standard ex-factory price of urea remains stable at 1,210–1,260 yuan; shipments by manufacturers are steady, and there is still considerable room for discounts when selling to external customers ； In the Shanxi region, the standard ex-factory price of urea remains stable at 1150–1160 yuan; sales have increased only slightly, the operating rate has declined a bit, and…… ； In Sichuan, the standard ex-factory price of urea remains stable at 1280–1400 yuan. With a few high-end brands having prices higher than this, most manufacturers sell their product at around that range… The prices for low-end products are those for external distribution; dealers consider the price drop to be significant, so orders for such products are currently somewhat limited ； In Inner Mongolia, although the operating rate of urea plants continues to decline and remains at only..., the demand from agriculture is not significant, so the main export prices for urea remain stable ； The market situation in the Northeast is average; manufacturers in Jilin have just started producing products, and the equipment is not yet operating stably. The main factory prices have dropped to 1260–1280 yuan. As for manufacturers in Liaoning, the main factory prices remain stable for now. Internationally, …… Overall, the overall production rate continues to decline; agricultural fertilizer preparation in some areas is slightly better, local urea prices remain stable or show a slight increase, and there is no significant gap in domestic demand. With no support from exports as well, prices are expected to remain stable but on a downward trend in the near term. 　　Regional market prices: Unit: yuan/ton (bolded values in the table refer to large-grain urea) http://www.nmtech.com.cn/sys/sec_zxwz.jpg