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Global investment in data centers will surpass investment in crude oil supply for the first time

2025-12-02View Original

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  The International Energy Agency recently released the World Energy Outlook 2025 (hereinafter referred to as the “report”), which shows that this year global investment in data centers will exceed global investment in crude oil supply for the first time. This not only marks a shift in the direction of energy investment, but also reveals that the core driver behind global economic growth has shifted from crude oil to electricity, while energy risks are moving from \"barrels\" to \"bytes\".   The growth rate of electricity demand far exceeds that of energy demand. The report makes a consistent prediction under the three scenarios considered: electricity demand will grow at a much faster pace than overall energy demand; energy demands related to data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) will become increasingly significant; renewable energy will grow faster than other major energy sources; and the resurgence of nuclear power is inevitable.   By 2035, 80% of the global increase in energy consumption will occur in regions with high-quality solar resources. Furthermore, investment in both traditional large-scale nuclear power plants and small modular reactors is continuing to rise, and it is expected that global nuclear power capacity will increase by at least one-third by 2035. Meanwhile, the peak in global oil and gas demand may arrive later than expected, and oil and gas supply issues related to geopolitical risks still require close attention.   The era of electricity has given rise to new forms of dependence, and the high level of market concentration increases the risk of disruptions in the supply chains for key mineral metals. Since 2020, the geographical concentration of refining for almost all key minerals has increased, particularly nickel and cobalt. The report shows that among the 20 energy-related minerals, refining of 19 of them is dominated by a single entity, which holds an average market share of up to 70%.   The International Energy Agency points out that with energy demand continuing to surge, diversification and cooperation are more important than ever. “Looking back at the energy history of recent decades, there has never been a period in which energy security tensions involved so many different energy sources and technologies. ”Fatih Birol, Director-General of the International Energy Agency, emphasized.   Investments in data centers now exceed those in crude oil supply. Electricity is the cornerstone of the modern economy; by 2035, electricity demand is set to increase by 40%, based on current policy scenarios and established policy paths ; Based on the net-zero emission scenario, electricity demand will increase by 50%.   The report indicates that currently, investment in electricity supply and end-use electricity has accounted for half of total global energy investment. Electricity accounts for about 20% of global final energy consumption, but it is a crucial energy source for industries and sectors that make up over 40% of the global economy.   Contrary to the trend over the past 10 years, growth in electricity consumption is no longer limited to emerging and developing economies. The rapid growth in demand for data centers and AI has driven a surge in electricity consumption in developed economies. Global investment in data centers is expected to reach $580 billion this year, exceeding the $540 billion invested in the global crude oil sector.   For AI applications, a common trend forecast is made for three scenarios: the widespread use of AI will drive a significant increase in power demand in data centers. Under the current policy scenarios, it is estimated that by 2035, electricity consumption in data centers will more than triple, accounting for 10% of the global increase in electricity demand.   At the same time, the supply chains for key components such as transformers, cables, gas turbines, and critical minerals are under pressure. Among them, the backlog in transformer deliveries has worsened, severely affecting the deployment of infrastructure required for data center construction. It is estimated that by 2030, about 20% of the new capacity added to data centers will face the risk of delayed delivery of key components.   The International Energy Agency points out that in the era of electricity, a key issue regarding energy security is the speed at which new power grids, energy storage, and other resources that enhance the flexibility of power systems are put into use. It is estimated that over 85% of the new data centers worldwide in the next 10 years will be located in the United States, China, and the European Union. Many of these data centers will be situated near existing data center clusters, placing additional strain on already overloaded power grids.   Currently, grid construction lags behind power generation capacity. Since 2015, investment in power generation has increased by nearly 70%, but annual investment in power grids has grown very slowly, accounting for less than half of the increase in power generation investment. Coupled with increasingly frequent extreme weather events and other uncontrollable risks such as cyber threats, the pace of grid modernization has been severely hindered.   Oil and gas demand growth may continue until 2050. According to the report, global demand for crude oil and natural gas is likely to keep rising until 2050. Under current policy scenarios, by 2050 global crude oil demand will increase by about 13% compared to 2024 levels, and carbon dioxide emissions will show no meaningful decline. Based on the established policy scenarios, global crude oil demand is expected to peak around 2030.   Looking at regional demand trends, almost all growth in crude oil demand occurs in emerging markets and developing economies, with India, Southeast Asia, and Africa being among the regions with the highest demand growth. Under the current policy scenarios, India will drive global crude oil demand growth over the next 10 years, with nearly half of all new global crude oil production flowing to this country by 2035. By 2035, Africa’s demand for crude oil will increase by one-third. Meanwhile, crude oil demand in the Middle East is also set to increase by nearly 1 million barrels per day by 2035.   Under the current policy scenarios, the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market size is expected to grow to 880 billion cubic meters by 2035, and reach 1.02 trillion cubic meters by 2050.

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