Thread Content
“During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the production capacity of basic products in China’s petrochemical industry saw a phase of concentrated expansion, after which it gradually entered a stage of low growth in capacity. The Central Economic Work Conference called for the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasized the role of domestic demand, and pushed forward the development of a large domestic market. Meanwhile, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the \"Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025–2026)\"), laying a policy foundation for the sustainable and healthy development of China’s petrochemical industry by 2026. Against this backdrop, various institutions such as Guosen Securities, Everbright Securities, Cinda Securities, and Northeast Securities generally predict that a turning point in the cycle of the petrochemical industry is likely to emerge by 2026, with the industry’s prosperity gradually recovering. At the domestic level, policies continue to play a key role in guiding the optimization of the industry structure. For example, the petrochemical industry can be brought under control to prevent excessive competition by strictly regulating the addition of new refining capacity, scientifically managing the pace of expansion of production capacity for key products such as ethylene and p-xylene, and encouraging the phasing out of outdated refining capacities. This approach also helps to direct the industry’s capacity allocation toward deeper processing and higher-value products, thereby increasing the added value of petrochemical products. On the international front, the Federal Reserve resumed its interest rate cut cycle in 2025, and coupled with OPEC+ continuously adjusting its production increase plans, key member countries have announced multiple pauses in increasing production capacity, reflecting a cautious attitude toward short-term energy demand. In the petrochemical industry, as global crude oil supply remains under pressure, oil prices are expected to remain volatile in 2026 as well. Against this backdrop, the profit flexibility of domestic key petrochemical companies is expected to increase further. CNPC will benefit greatly from the marketization reforms of natural gas, which will help drive steady improvements in its overall performance ； Sinopec focuses on making progress in reducing competition within the domestic refining and chemical industries, continuously working to improve cost control, supply chain management, and market share ； CNOOC continues to work on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs and improving efficiency. Oil service companies will benefit from upstream capital expenditure providing strong support for the industry ； Sub-sectors of the refining and petrochemical industry are likely to see structural opportunities, and the industry may continue to improve. Sub-sectors of the chemical industry are expected to see opportunities for profit restructuring in 2026. Specifically, the prosperity of the fluorine chemicals sector is expected to rise steadily ； The supply and demand in the potassium fertilizer industry will remain tight, with a potential window for periodic price increases ； The new policy of \"one license per product\" in the pesticide industry will reshape the competitive landscape of the agricultural inputs market ； The prosperity of the silicone industry is expected to continue on an upward trend ； In the field of new chemical materials, overcoming key technical challenges is crucial for enhancing the industry’s competitiveness. Advances in catalyst technology, the engineering scaling of polymerization processes, and the development of product applications will directly determine the position of domestic companies in the high-end materials market. At the same time, the bioprocess technology pathway for producing chemicals from bio-based raw materials, as an effective supplement to fossil-based raw materials, deserves attention in terms of its industrialization progress.