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Recently, some market analysts have said that international crude oil prices in 2026 will continue the downward trend seen in 2025. However, the crude oil market in 2026 remains subject to various uncertainties, especially as geopolitical risks could escalate at any time. Among the various predictable trends, the oversupply in the crude oil market, along with the challenges and opportunities faced by international oil giants and other companies, will be at the center of market attention in 2026. Regarding crude oil, the recent volatile fluctuations in international oil prices clearly demonstrate the current oversupply situation in the crude oil market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its latest monthly report for December 2025 that global crude oil supply could exceed demand by as much as 3.84 million barrels per day in 2026, indicating a significant level of surplus. Although various geopolitical events can temporarily drive oil prices up or down, the cycles of fluctuation are short-lived and limited in magnitude. However, many analysts believe that this severe supply surplus in the crude oil market will not persist for long, and it is expected that the market will gradually return to balance in the second half of 2026 through 2027. In its \"Commodities Outlook 2026,\" Goldman Sachs states: \"Our baseline forecast for the crude oil market in 2026 is one of supply surplus, but the risk of supply disruptions in Russia, Venezuela, and Iran cannot be ignored, especially given the ongoing reduction in idle production capacity among OPEC and its partners (OPEC+).\" ”Goldman Sachs notes that in the coming years, an “overabundance of supply” will be the key factor driving oil and gas price trends. The agency believes that unless there are major supply disruptions or OPEC announces production cuts, the crude oil market after 2026 may need to rely on falling oil prices to restore balance between supply and demand. Arland Rizhide, founder and CEO of Rizhide Energy Company, said in his organization’s annual outlook: “The upstream oil and gas sector will see an ample supply in 2026, but the downstream value chain may face potential bottlenecks.” ”The agency also noted that the greater the decline in oil and gas prices in 2026, the stronger the rebound will be in 2027 and 2028. However, low crude oil prices do not mean a downturn in the refining industry. Susan Bell, Senior Vice President of Energy Commodities at Wood Mackenzie, said that they expect refineries in Europe and the U.S. to maintain high utilization rates throughout most of 2026. The crack spreads for refined products are anticipated to remain at elevated levels, with those for diesel being particularly robust. As global oil trade patterns shift, this trend will also boost diesel profits in Asia and the Middle East. The agency added that refineries will also provide support for the gasoline price gap in order to balance the output structure of gasoline and diesel. Regarding shale oil, Matthew Bernstein, vice president of North America’s oil and gas business at Rystad Energy, noted that even if crude oil prices in New York remain around $60 per barrel, U.S. shale oil production will still exhibit strong resilience. Shale oil companies listed on the stock market will make every effort to maintain their current production levels and avoid a sharp drop in output ； At the same time, these companies may choose to reduce shareholder dividends and achieve cost synergies in operations and management through mergers and acquisitions, in order to offset the pressures associated with production costs throughout the entire cycle. Due to low oil prices, the focus of the U.S. oil and gas M&A market will shift toward the natural gas sector. This is partly due to the increasing demand for natural gas resulting from the rise in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports ； On the other hand, the development of the artificial intelligence industry has driven a surge in electricity demand, which in turn has increased natural gas consumption further. However, low oil prices are not good news for oil giants. Tom Elakott, head of corporate research at Wood Mackenzie, and Greg Atkinson noted in their 2026 Corporate Strategy Outlook that in 2026, international oil giants, national oil companies, as well as domestic and international independent oil and gas producers in the United States will all face more severe strategic balance challenges than in 2025. Faced with the dual pressures of low oil prices and oversupply, oil and gas companies are making thorough preparations for an environment of low oil prices in 2026, but they are more optimistic about the medium- to long-term development prospects. Companies are gradually shifting capital away from the renewable energy sector back to the upstream oil and gas industry, while increasing efforts in exploratory activities in the hope of discovering large oil and gas fields. Wood Mackenzie predicts that, in response to the oversupply situation, oil companies will likely be the first to reduce the scale of their stock buybacks. Analysts emphasized: “Low oil prices will force companies to pursue deeper structural cost cuts and further reduce the scale of stock repurchases.” At the same time, the pressure on oil and gas companies will also increase steadily. ”