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According to a recent monthly report released in January by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, oil supply and demand are expected to be in balance by 2026, which is significantly different from the predictions of other agencies that suggest there will be a large surplus in oil supply by that year. Oil demand is expected to grow at a rate roughly similar to that in 2026, while the transition to clean energy sources will proceed more slowly than some forecasts indicate. The monthly report predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027, remaining roughly on par with the 2026 forecast of 1.38 million barrels per day. Analyses suggest that the global economy will maintain strong growth momentum in both 2026 and 2027. The market’s demand for OPEC+ crude oil in 2026 is projected to be 43 million barrels per day, a figure that remains unchanged from the previous month and is close to the actual figures recorded in December 2025. Reuters estimates that if OPEC+ maintains its production levels from December 2025, production in 2026 will be 170,000 barrels per day lower than demand. This is in line with the views of the International Energy Agency (IEA)******. Based on its latest data, the IEA predicts that there will be a surplus of 3.84 million barrels per day in oil supply by 2026, accounting for about 4% of global demand. OPEC, on the other hand, predicts an increase in daily demand of 860,000 barrels, with its forecast for demand growth in 2026 being much higher than that of the IEA. The IEA plans to release the latest data on the 21st of this month, but its monthly report does not yet include projections for 2027. (Wang Yingbin)