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The Composite Index of Wholesale Fertilizer Prices in China saw a slight decline. Author/Source: Central Government-funded Project, China Agricultural Means of Production Circulation Association. Date: September 5, 2019. Page views: 6. Recently (August 26–30), the Composite Index of Wholesale Fertilizer Prices in China experienced a slight decline. On September 2, the China Fertilizer Wholesale Price Index (CFCI) was 2,141.74 points, down 8.51 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.40% ； It dropped by 24.40 points on a year-on-year basis, representing a decline of 1.13% ； It dropped by 237.10 points from the base period, representing a decline of 9.97%. On September 2, China’s Compound Fertilizer Retail Price Index (CCRI) was 2,476.20 points, up 2.40 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a growth rate of 0.10% ； It increased by 19.77 points year-on-year, representing a rise of 0.80% ； It increased by 29.49 points compared to the base period, a rise of 2.51%. Supply situation: In terms of nitrogen fertilizers, some urea-producing plants are undergoing maintenance, resulting in an overall operating rate of around 66% ； The operating rates of both coal-based and gas-based enterprises have declined. In terms of phosphate fertilizers, some diammonium fertilizer manufacturers have resumed production, raising the overall operational rate to 64%. Regarding potassium fertilizers, the arrival price for the 60% powdered crystal version of the salt lake-based product is 2,250 yuan per ton, with a discount of 20 yuan per ton ； Port potassium inventories exceed 2.7 million tons; deliveries under major contracts are nearing completion ； The supply of border-trade potassium still hasn’t been restored. Regarding compound fertilizers, the strict environmental regulations across the country remain in place at present, and there has been no significant improvement in the operating rates of enterprises. Demand Situation Regarding nitrogen fertilizers, the demand for urea is generally weak ； Agricultural demand is in the off-season ； Industrial demand is primarily for small orders; the operating rates of compound fertilizer manufacturers have not shown significant improvement, resulting in limited demand for urea. Regarding phosphate fertilizers, the domestic market for diammonium fertilizers remains stable overall, with demand at the grassroots level yet to emerge ； In terms of export markets, companies continue to cut production to maintain prices; however, DAP inventories in the Indian and Pakistani markets remain high, resulting in sluggish exports of Chinese DAP. Regarding potash fertilizers, the operating rate of compound fertilizer manufacturers is increasing slowly, and the demand for potash fertilizers remains moderate. Regarding compound fertilizers, the market progressed slowly in autumn, with limited new orders; agricultural demand at the grassroots level has not yet been fully realized, so there is still some potential demand in the future. International Market: International nitrogen fertilizer prices have stopped falling and stabilized; in some regions, urea prices have rebounded. The main reason is the uptick in demand in Europe ； The market is expecting India to issue a new round of tenders. International phosphate fertilizer prices remain stable overall, while the export prices of diammonium phosphate in China continue to decline, driven by high inventory levels in the Indian and Pakistani markets. Internationally, potash prices have remained generally stable; prices in Southeast Asia are steady, while prices in the United States have seen an increase. Future outlook: In terms of the nitrogen fertilizer market, the urea market is generally in a stalemate ； The overall operational rate of enterprises has declined, resulting in a slight reduction in market supply ； Demand remains weak; agricultural demand is in the off-season, while industrial demand shows no signs of improvement ； In summary, urea prices are expected to remain stable overall in the short term. In the phosphate fertilizer market, domestic transactions of DAP during the autumn season have been limited, and demand at the grassroots level has yet to pick up ； The export market remains stagnant, with prices continuing to fall ； In summary, it is expected that DAP prices will remain weak in the short term, with a risk of declining. In the potassium fertilizer market, port potassium inventory levels remain high, and there has been no significant improvement in market demand ； No news on the major negotiations for potassium fertilizer contracts ； In summary, potassium chloride prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short term. In terms of the compound fertilizer market, amid ongoing strict environmental regulations, the production capacity of compound fertilizer manufacturers is seeing only limited increases ； On the demand side, the autumn market continues to develop; there is still some underlying demand at the grassroots level, and corporate ordering meetings are being held one after another, which has a positive impact on the compound fertilizer market ； In terms of raw materials, the prices of urea, monoammonium phosphate, and potash fertilizers have remained relatively stable; however, this provides limited support to the cost of compound fertilizers ； In summary, it is expected that the price of compound fertilizers will remain weakly stable in the short term. (Zhou Yuqing)