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Demand for ammonium nitrate rises toward the end of the farming season; prices increase. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: 2020-06-17. Clicks: 7. Recently, some enterprises in Hubei have continued to suspend quoting for ammonium nitrate, focusing instead on supplying customers from previous orders and controlling new orders. However, it is reported that prices for ammonium nitrate in the market have risen significantly. The ex-factory price for 55% powdered ammonium nitrate produced by large factories in Hubei is between 1820–1850 yuan per ton, while smaller factories offer prices ranging from 1780–1800 yuan per ton; actual transaction prices can be negotiated by 20–30 yuan. The price quoted by the large manufacturers in Sichuan has also increased by 50 yuan; currently, the ex-factory price for 55% ammonium phosphate is between 1800 and 1850 yuan. Quotations in other regions remain generally stable for now. Industry experts believe that this phase is still one of negotiation between upstream and downstream parties, and a brief analysis of the specific situation is still required. So, is the rise in the price of monoammonium a sign of real prosperity or false prosperity? It is reported that prices have indeed risen, and the new prices have seen some transactions, though the volume of sales remains low for now. As mentioned earlier, some in the industry believe that the situation will remain a stage of negotiation between the two parties in the short term. However, the autumn procurement needs of downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers are gradually becoming more apparent. Although some large compound fertilizer producers have already started making purchases, there is still a need for certain amounts of ammonium nitrate as raw material in the coming period. Moreover, the overall operating rate of compound fertilizers has been low in recent times, resulting in modest demand for raw materials. As the operating rate of compound fertilizers gradually improves, the demand for monoammonium phosphate will increase accordingly, and some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer manufacturers are beginning to pay more attention to their procurement needs for this raw material. The improvement in demand has increased the amount of ammonium sulfate available for shipment; for a certain period of time, demand exceeds supply, which makes it inevitable for the price of ammonium sulfate to rise. Moreover, during this peak season in autumn, it is also likely that the actual transaction prices of ammonium sulfate will increase accordingly. The situation of ammonium sulfate producers this year is different from that of last year. Last year, these companies faced significant inventory pressures, but due to factors such as the impact of the pandemic, their inventories have been largely cleared out; as a result, they do not face much inventory pressure these days, which gives them a certain degree of flexibility. As a major producer of monoammonium phosphate, Hubei enjoys a favorable geographical location; the transportation distances to places such as Shandong and the two river regions are relatively short. Some large manufacturers take advantage of this situation to accept orders on a limited scale and then control or suspend further order acceptance. It is reported that some of these large manufacturers already have orders scheduled to be shipped by early to mid-July. Downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers will gradually resume operations in the near future, and they will also start formulating new procurement plans for monoammonium phosphate. Overall, the supply side presents certain advantages for monoammonium. Raw materials also have a certain impact on the price of monoammonium sulfate. In recent months, the inventory levels of sulfur at ports have shown a downward trend; however, the port market has begun to recover, with increased trading activity between buyers and sellers. This week, the price of sulfur produced by Puguang at the Wanzhou port and the Dazhou plant was 690 yuan and 590 yuan respectively, while the price of granular sulfur at the Yangtze River port and Fangchenggang port was 665 yuan. All these prices have risen by more than 100 yuan since the beginning of the year, providing some support for the costs associated with monoammonium sulfate. In summary, in addition to the aforementioned positive factors, demand for monoammonium phosphate in the international market has also seen a recovery recently, with prices gradually rising; this provides some impetus for the domestic monoammonium phosphate market as well. However, in the short term, the situation remains one of competition between monoammonium phosphate producers and compound fertilizer manufacturers. It will be necessary to keep an eye on factors such as fertilizer sales during the autumn season and the overall supply of monoammonium phosphate. It is expected that prices of monoammonium phosphate will continue to rise slightly, and sales volumes may also increase modestly. (Zhao Hongye)