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“\"Unique scenic beauty\": When can phosphatic ammonium fertilizer see good performance? Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2020-07-10 Clicks: 4 With the summer fertilization period coming to an end, the autumn market is gradually emerging. However, in the early stages of this autumn market, the overall prices of urea and compound fertilizers have been relatively average. Currently, the price range for urea in Shandong and the two river regions is between 1,590 and 1,630 yuan per ton; in Shanxi, the main ex-factory price for urea is around 1,530 yuan, while in Inner Mongolia it is 1,360–1,370 yuan per ton. In Xinjiang, the main ex-factory price for urea is 1,240–1,400 yuan per ton. The overall performance of the compound fertilizer market is also fairly average. Although some factories have received pre-orders for only 200,000 tons, there has been no significant increase in the overall prices of compound fertilizers； The potassium fertilizer market has also remained relatively calm ； However, overall prices in the phosphate fertilizer market have been on the rise recently. Currently, the standard ex-factory price for 55% ammonium phosphate in Hubei is between 1,850 and 1,900 yuan, while large manufacturers in Sichuan offer it at around 1,800 yuan. In North China, the standard delivery price for 64% diammonium phosphate is between 2,400 and 2,450 yuan. The recent export prices on an FOB basis are 308–310 dollars per ton. Many of the diammonium phosphate manufacturers have orders ready for export that can be fulfilled by the end of this month or early next month. As for monoammonium phosphate, market conditions are fairly good, with a relatively strong willingness to maintain prices at current levels. Although autumn is typically the peak season for phosphate fertilizers, can this positive trend continue? Could the market once again experience a situation where it isn’t sluggish during off-peak periods but also not particularly active during peak periods? Based on the current market conditions, it seems that the peak season will continue for some time. Firstly, demand in the autumn market is still decent. In the autumn market for monoammonium phosphate, although demand was released earlier this year, there is still demand to come. However, since the inventory of monoammonium phosphate held by compound fertilizer manufacturers, along with the amount ready for shipment, is sufficient to sustain production for some time, demand has slowed down slightly in recent times, leading to a wait-and-see attitude. At present, most compound fertilizer manufacturers have announced their pricing policies for autumn fertilizers; yet only a few of them are seeing satisfactory collection rates, while most are experiencing very low revenue. Nevertheless, driven by the recent rise in grain prices, there is increased enthusiasm among downstream buyers to stock up on fertilizers, meaning that potential demand will remain present in the future ； In the past six months, the overall price increase potential for diammonium nitrogen has been modest. Even though compound fertilizers still have room for decline in price, diammonium nitrogen maintains a certain price advantage over compound fertilizers on a year-on-year basis. Demand for diammonium nitrogen in North China remains decent during the autumn period. At present, there is not much difference between the export prices and the domestic factory prices, so companies are quite willing to export and have no intention of reducing prices at this time. Secondly, the supply volume has decreased compared to previous years. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the operating rates of some large phosphamide manufacturers in Yunnan had already dropped to around 40% in the early stages. At present, most phosphamide plants still face certain restrictions; the monthly production volume of phosphamide is less than 2 million tons. Although supply appears excessive in terms of production capacity, the overall supply and demand situation is better compared to the same period last year. There isn’t much excess inventory in the market at the moment, so phosphamide remains at a favorable price level. Considering these two factors, the overall price of phosphatic ammonium is likely to remain high in the near term. However, there are still some concerns regarding raw material costs. According to statistics, the total stock of sulfur at the Sulfur Port is 3.04 million tons, while that at the Yangtze River Port is 1.8 million tons, showing a slight increase compared to earlier levels. The recent appreciation of the RMB also has an impact on the sulfur market. At present, the price of granular sulfur at the Yangtze River Port and Fangchenggang Port has dropped to 640 yuan per ton. With sulfur in a weak market condition, it is expected that even if the price of phosphatic ammonium rises, the overall increase will not be significant.