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Grain prices are soaring; fertilizer prices are rising rapidly. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: 2020-10-20. Clicks: 2. The phrase that colleagues at Grain Information Network have been saying most often lately is that grain prices are rising like a rocket! First it was corn, and now soybeans – grain prices are indeed rising sharply. As a type of food commodity, fertilizers naturally also want to see price increases; in fact, there is even a sense of urgency in this regard. However, aside from potassium chloride, whose price has remained stable for over two months, most other types of fertilizers are still at stable levels, with only slight signs of an impending price increase. So they really were riding a rocket, while our haste to get on the vehicle wasn’t about rushing to board it, but rather about being eager to do so. Urea has been pining after the third party for quite some time now; it’s quite annoying. However, India’s bid this time was truly ambitious; it managed to secure approval for 2.095 million tons of urea at a minimum CIF price of $279.94 per ton on the West Coast, and $279.25 per ton on the East Coast. This figure far exceeds the expectations of the industry regarding the amount of urea that would be bid for, while China is likely to win the contract for around 1 million tons, which is in line with the expected figures. However, it’s not clear whether the calls for price increases were made too early; now that the prices have finally risen, there has been no significant increase in the price of urea. So far, only some companies have raised their prices slightly, and the overall trend and extent of increases are below what the industry expected. Moreover, this is despite a decline in the operating rate of the urea industry. It seems that for urea prices to rise, efforts from various parties are needed, especially to restore domestic demand. The price of ammonium phosphate has increased by 20-50 yuan. Following the postponement of the phosphorus compound fertilizer conference, some compound fertilizer manufacturers began to place orders; the number of orders awaiting fulfillment by ammonium phosphate producers has increased. At present, some manufacturers in Hubei have temporarily stopped selling their products, while manufacturers in the southwest region are also restricting new orders. Coupled with rising raw material prices, manufacturers have generally raised their prices slightly ； Affected by rising raw material prices and maintenance activities at some large manufacturers, several diammonium phosphate producers have raised their prices for winter storage again; the price received at terminals in Heilongjiang province for 64% diammonium phosphate has increased to 2750 yuan. The prices of all three raw materials used in phosphatic ammonium have risen, exports are performing well, and there is no pressure on sales at present... However, in the eyes of most end-users, this only indicates that the risk of a price drop for phosphatic ammonium is low. The downstream players are very shrewd; this year, the price of ammonium has been largely determined by them. If they want prices to rise, they buy in large quantities at low prices, thereby keeping your higher prices in check ； Although diammonium fertilizer manufacturers are not under pressure, on the one hand there is always supply available at low prices in the market, and on the other hand, due to the low prices of compound fertilizers, it is difficult to boost enthusiasm for stockpiling among end-users. It seems that phosphate ammonium wants to raise prices; perhaps it lacks effective measures, and it would be best to find solutions regarding supply. The price of potassium chloride has risen by almost 300 yuan; it has even prevented a decline in the price of potassium sulfate. Although trading volume is not very high at present, the prices remain quite stable. A friend from a large company said jokingly, \"Don’t ask me if there will be a raise next month; instead, ask how much it will be!\" The dominance of potassium chloride is evident. Although it is currently difficult to make deals at the high prices in the port, and although the presale prices for border trade are slightly lower than the current spot prices, the sellers still hold their heads high, continuing with the upward trend seen over these past couple of months without ever feeling the need to give any explanations. It seems that the potassium chloride that was the first to get on board is setting a trend of pulling other substances along as well. In any case, raw material prices are actually on the rise steadily, and compound fertilizers have a relative advantage over diammonium fertilizers. Recently, winter storage policies and prices for compound fertilizer manufacturers across the country have been announced one after another; so far there has been no significant increase in prices. However, many companies are claiming that prices will rise, urging distributors to make payments promptly. The rising costs of raw materials and compound fertilizers are interdependent; this upward trend seems inevitable. It’s easy to get involved in this trend, but it’s not yet clear whether one will end up on a conventional train or a high-speed train. Grain prices have skyrocketed, and fertilizers have seen price increases as well – will distributors continue to wait and see? Be cautious of the risks of price increases during winter storage and price drops in spring; it’s time for everyone to get active! (Adu)