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Fertilizer prices change depending on its quantity; may this truth endure forever. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2020-12-15 Clicks: 3 Urine, which had previously seen a decline in prices, has seen its prices rise again due to reduced production capacity caused by gas restrictions and environmental regulations； AMMONIUM NITRATE, whose price soared due to a shortage in supply, has become less expensive now that the shortage has diminished. Are potassium chloride and potassium sulfate, which remain exceptionally strong in comparison, in short supply? The Sino-Canadian contract expired on October 31, and foreign companies have been claiming that they will not provide China with any alternative quantities to purchase; as of now, there is still no news regarding negotiations for a new contract. Is it scary? No! At least, current customs data show that imports of potassium chloride from January to October have reached 7.41 million tons. The preliminary estimate for November is that imports will still be around 800,000 tons. The average import volume for December over the past ten years was 700,000 tons, with the lowest figure being 230,000 tons. Based on these figures, it is likely that total imports for 2020 will reach a record high of 9 million tons, or at least around 8.4 million tons – again a record level – with the minimum value still representing the third-highest figure in the past decade! According to Zhongfei Net, the current total stock of potassium chloride in domestic ports is around 2.93 million tons, of which 2.72 million tons are stored in regular ports. In the same period last year, the total stock in ports was 3.8 million tons, with 3.07 million tons stored in regular ports. In other words, the stock of potassium chloride in ports has decreased by 10-20% on a year-on-year basis. Is it scary? No! Looking at the same period the year before last, it was 1.57 million tons ； In the same period the year before last, 2 million tons ； **The year before last, 1.9–2 million tons... So, is it scary? Which one is terrifying? Some might say that there are still 1.5 million tons of state reserves in Hong Kong’s storage facilities. If we subtract that amount—never mind, let’s not do that; it sounds as though those 1.5 million tons of state reserves didn’t exist before! The production of domestically produced potassium chloride in Qinghai is indeed unstable; many small factories operate at suboptimal capacity throughout the year. However, the increased production and sales volume by the leading company, Yanhu Company, have ensured that the overall production of domestically produced potassium chloride this year is at least on par with that of last year. In summary, the supply of potassium chloride is actually sufficient, whether at ports, land transport hubs, or in Qinghai. As for potassium sulfate, although the leading companies went through the longest summer maintenance period in history, the overall reduction in production was not significant; overall, the production of potassium sulfate in this year’s water-salt industry remains satisfactory. The average annual operating rate for Mannheim’s potassium sulfate production is expected to reach 70%, up from less than 60% in the previous three years. Therefore, the supply of potassium sulfate is also ample. There is considerable supply capacity, but the available sources of goods may be limited ； There were quite a few ahead and even now, but there might be fewer behind ； Regardless of whether the supply is high or low, demand might be good. This might roughly explain why the market for potassium fertilizers is so good. But in general, if we consider only the supply and demand figures, it is already quite remarkable that potassium chloride and potassium sulfate have been able to achieve their current performance. Recent declines in transaction prices at high levels, along with slight fluctuations in some areas, seem to indicate that future trends will shift from upward movement to stability. In any case, the current market situation for potassium fertilizers is favorable; prices change depending on the amount of fertilizer available. It’s hoped that this situation will endure forever – and this is probably the New Year’s wish of most people in the potassium fertilizer industry. (Adu)