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Urine application doesn’t reduce nitrogen and phosphorus levels; rising potassium prices indicate that fertilizer costs will continue to rise. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2021-03-05 Clicks: 7 With the increase in potassium fertilizer prices over the past two weeks, the situation of soaring fertilizer prices this spring can be considered \"complete\". However, when compared with the same period last year, this is not entirely the case. As of now, the highest price recorded for small-grain urea in the Linyi market was around 2210 yuan per ton, and this was in late February. Last spring, the highest price was only 1860 yuan, in the first half of March. The current price is 350 yuan higher, representing a 19% increase ； At present, the acceptance and warehousing price for 55% powdered monoammonium in Shandong region has reached around 2,500 yuan. In mid-March last spring, the high-end price was around 2,080 yuan; thus the current price is 420 yuan higher, representing a 20% increase. On March 4, Salt Lake Company announced its new prices for March, with an increase of 50 yuan. The price at the first delivery point by the national railway for products containing 60% potassium rose to 2100 yuan. The highest price in the first half of last year was also 2100 yuan in January; by March, however, the market price had dropped to around 2030–2050 yuan ； Currently, the mainstream price for 62% talc at the port is 2,250 yuan. The peak price last spring was in early March, also at 2,250 yuan ； Currently, the price of 60% red granular potash at the port is around 2150–2300 yuan; it reached its highest level of 2200–2400 yuan in March last year ； A few days ago, the transaction price for 62% white potassium in border trade was around 1,900 yuan; in March last year it was above 2,000 yuan, with premium prices reaching 2,100 yuan. Upon returning after the New Year, the price of potassium chloride increased by 50–200 yuan on average, which is a significant increase; however, it was still 0–100 yuan lower than during the same period last year, representing a decrease of around 5%. The latest price comparison for single-component fertilizers shows that urea and monoammonium nitrogen have a price of 45-46, while potassium chloride costs only 37. Although urea prices have dropped significantly recently, this still cannot overshadow the sharp rise in nitrogen and phosphorus prices on a year-on-year basis. Yet the most honest and cheapest potassium chloride has seen a rather painful price increase. In fact, the rise in the price of potassium chloride is mainly driven by increases in the prices of nitrogen and phosphorus, as well as certain human factors; demand, on the other hand, is not very strong. This is because potassium chloride was on an upward trend throughout the second half of last year, and downstream users had already made provisions in advance ； Coupled with the new large-scale contract price of $247 with Belarussian Potash Company, the industry believes that potassium chloride prices are unlikely to rise significantly, so there is no urgency to make purchases ； Not only are the prices of nitrogen and phosphorus high, but they are also rising rapidly; as a result, most of the capital was directed toward nitrogen and phosphorus in the early stages. The summer and autumn seasons are characterized by high demand for nitrogen and phosphorus-rich fertilizers. After spring, the demand for potassium chloride gradually declines, while domestic potassium production is slowly recovering. Although the large-scale contracts for 2021 have not yet been finalized, it is possible that a price of $247 per ton from Belarus could serve as a transitional solution. Currently, there is an ample supply in ports, and as long as imports of potassium fertilizers do not drop significantly, a true shortage is unlikely in the near future. So, in a few months, the high prices in the international fertilizer market will gradually decline; it remains to be seen whether potassium chloride will follow suit, and there is still plenty of time to observe the situation. It is temporarily expected that the upward trend in potassium chloride prices in the first round will gradually weaken; awaiting an increase in transactions, the price of 62% hydrated calcium chloride at ports will remain within the range of 2250–2300 yuan ； Whether there will be a second round of price increases in the future, or whether prices will drop again as they did last year, depends crucially on the arrival of imported potassium, and clarity on this matter may emerge by the end of the month. (Adu)