Apparent nitrogen fertilizer consumption in 2023 exceeded 38 million tons!

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On March 6–7, at the 2024 National Spring Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Situation Analysis Conference held in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, the list of the top 20 nitrogen fertilizer sellers in China for 2023 was released. Gu Zongqin, president of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, said in his speech that the overall characteristics of nitrogen fertilizer production and the market in China in 2023 were as follows: capacity and output increased, market supply was sufficient, imports and exports gradually recovered, coal prices dropped significantly, and nitrogen fertilizer prices returned to normal levels. 　　First, production has increased significantly. According to the quick report from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, the national production of synthetic ammonia in 2023 was 67.654 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.4% ； Nitrogen fertilizer production amounted to 44.867 million tons of pure nitrogen, an increase of 8.6% on a year-on-year basis ； Urea production amounted to 62.915 million tons in terms of physical volume, representing a 9.2% increase year-on-year. 　　Second, exports have increased significantly. According to customs statistics, in 2023 China exported 6.654 million tons of pure nitrogen in the form of nitrogen fertilizers, a year-on-year increase of 31.9% ； 199,000 tons of pure nitrogen were imported, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.0%. In 2023, China exported 4.251 million tons of urea in physical terms, a year-on-year increase of 50.2%. 0.4 million tons of physical goods were imported, a decrease of 23.5% year-on-year. 　　Third, consumption has increased significantly. According to estimates by the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, the apparent consumption of nitrogen fertilizers across the country in 2023 was 38.412 million tons (in pure terms), representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6% ； The apparent consumption of urea was 58.668 million tons, an increase of 7.1% on a year-on-year basis. In 2023, as the central government launched a new initiative to increase grain production by 100 million jin, and took measures to boost the yield per unit area of key crops such as grains and oils, various regions strengthened the shared responsibility of party and government agencies for grain production. Support for grain production was increased further, which boosted farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grains; as a result, the country’s grain sowing area increased by 9.546 million mu. In 2023, the overall supply of nitrogen fertilizers in the country was sufficient; the cost-effectiveness of these fertilizers improved, leading to an increase in the amount of fertilizer used by farmers, which in turn raised consumption of agricultural nitrogen fertilizers. In the non-agricultural sector, the wood-based panels industry overcame the negative impacts of the pandemic in 2023, with production recovering compared to 2022. The replacement of liquid ammonia with urea in denitrification systems for thermal power plants in the electricity sector was advanced at a faster pace, and urea consumption in this non-agricultural sector also saw a slight increase. It is estimated that in 2023, urea consumption in the non-agricultural sector was around 19.5 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons compared to the previous year, representing a growth rate of 7.3%. In the agricultural sector, urea consumption was about 39.1 million tons, with an increase of 2.6 million tons year-on-year, resulting in a growth rate of 6.9%. 　　Fourth is the decline in coal prices. According to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, in 2023 the average delivery price of anthracite coal for nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers was 1,445 yuan per ton, a decrease of 353 yuan per ton compared to the previous year, representing a decline of 19.6% ； The average ex-plant price of bituminous coal was 949 yuan per ton, a decrease of 217 yuan per ton compared to the previous year, representing a decline of 18.6%. 　　Fifth is the decline in nitrogen fertilizer prices. In 2023, the average ex-plant price of urea for the whole year was 2,419 yuan per ton, a decrease of 256 yuan per ton compared to the previous year, representing a decline of 9.6% ； The average ex-plant price of liquid ammonia is 3,450 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12.4% on a year-on-year basis ； The average ex-plant price of ammonium bicarbonate was 925 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4.2% on a year-on-year basis. 　　Gu Zongqin pointed out that overall, domestic nitrogen fertilizer production and sales were both strong in 2023. Affected by changes in the international market, prices experienced significant fluctuations at certain times. Under the guidance of **relevant authorities, key nitrogen fertilizer producers and distributors have taken active steps to fulfill their social responsibilities by increasing nitrogen fertilizer production, reducing exports, and boosting supply to the domestic market, thereby ensuring that domestic nitrogen fertilizer prices remain at reasonable levels.