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There is a rapid growing global consensus on reducing plastic use. A latest report by the financial think tank Carbon Tracker predicts that, amid the increasing number of countries introducing bans on plastic, the global annual growth rate of demand for virgin plastic is likely to slow down to below 1%, reaching a peak by 2027 ； Meanwhile, the oil industry’s overly optimistic outlook on plastic demand may put petrochemical investments worth around $400 billion at risk of being stalled. Petrochemical investments are focused on plastics. Reports show that due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, global consumption of transportation fuels has declined significantly, prompting oil producers to shift their focus to the demand for plastics. In simple terms, plastics are mostly high-molecular polymers formed through polymerization of by-products derived from fossil materials such as oil. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), petrochemical products have thousands of uses, but the majority of these are in the fields of plastics and fertilizers. According to the report, since 2000, the average annual growth rate of global plastic production has been around 4%, with emerging economies being the main driving force behind this growth. Of the approximately 350 million tons of plastic produced globally each year, Asia accounts for about half of that amount, North America for 19%, and Europe for 16%. The report also states that BP and the IEA have previously made scenario predictions regarding the relationship between plastics and oil; their conclusions are that the demand for oil in transportation will face challenges, but demand for plastics will be the main driver of future growth in oil demand, with the IEA predicting that plastics will account for 45% of that growth in oil demand. This has also led the oil industry to increase its investment in production capacity for plastic products. The petrochemical industry is currently facing overcapacity, while the demand for plastic raw materials is at a historic high. At the same time, the petrochemical industry still plans to increase the production capacity of raw plastics by a quarter over the next 5 years, which means at least $400 billion in additional investment. What to do with the plastic ban? However, plastic releases large amounts of carbon dioxide and toxic gases during its production, and there were once very few restrictions on its use. The data in the report shows that 36% of plastics are used only once, 40% of plastics end up polluting the environment, and only 5% of plastic products are actually recycled. It is estimated that at least 8 million tons of plastic end up in the oceans each year. The report suggests that although the oil industry is optimistic about strong growth in global plastic demand, its assessment of this demand is somewhat overly optimistic, given that countries around the world are now paying attention to the issue of plastic pollution. In 2018, the EU introduced the strictest plastic restrictions in history, ordering a ban on the use of 10 of the most common single-use plastic products on European beaches starting in 2021; moreover, EU member states were required to recycle 90% of plastic bottles by 2025. Currently, the EU is also considering imposing a tax of 800 euros per ton on unrecycled plastic waste. In other parts of the world, starting in 2019, New Zealand has been gradually implementing a complete ban on single-use plastic shopping bags ； Chile also officially enacted a plastic ban in 2019, prohibiting all supermarkets and shops across the country from providing plastic bags to customers ； South Korea **also announced a comprehensive strategy for waste recycling management last year, with the goal of reducing the use of disposable cups and plastic bags by 35% by 2022, and cutting plastic waste in half by 2030. According to the scenarios outlined in the report, a global ban on plastics would reduce the annual growth rate of plastic demand from 4% to below 1%. The report states that there are already technical solutions available for reducing plastic use, including emphasizing recycling and using paper as a substitute. Yoni Shiran, a senior analyst and one of the report’s authors, said, “There are huge benefits to emphasizing recycling: we can still enjoy all the functions provided by plastic products, but at half the cost and with half the raw materials required. It would also create 700,000 additional jobs, while reducing plastic pollution by 80%. ” Source: Yicai