In the first 11 months of 2017, the global coal market showed a full-scale recovery

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In 2017, the global coal market showed a full recovery. Firstly, coal prices have risen. The reference price for thermal coal in December, as published by Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, was $94.04 per ton, with an average annual price of $85.9 per ton – a 39% increase compared to the average price of $61.8 in 2016. By the end of 2017 (December 22), the closing price of thermal coal at Port Newcastle, Australia, was $104.34 per ton, once again reaching the level of $100 per ton. The closing price of high-quality coking coal at Cape Town was $258 per ton, and this price continued to rise. Secondly, coal production is increasing; it is estimated that the coal output of the top five coal-producing countries will rise by about 3% compared to the previous year. Third, international coal imports and exports have increased; U.S. coal exports have risen significantly, while the production and exports of major coal-exporting countries such as Russia, Mongolia, Indonesia, and Colombia have all reached record levels. Fourthly, the profits from coal operations of large mining companies have doubled. Bodi Energy’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for the first three quarters of 2017 were $411 million, representing a 316% increase compared to the same period in 2016. Fifthly, investment in coal and mergers and acquisitions of coal assets are becoming more active. Glencore Group and Yankuang Group’s Australian subsidiary are competing to acquire the coal mine assets of United Coal Company in New South Wales, Australia, while India’s Adani Group is making renewed efforts to develop the Carmichael coal mine in Queensland, Australia, with a total production capacity of 60 million tons. 　　Below are the data on **coal production and coal imports and exports in certain countries around the world for the first 11 months of 2017, provided for reference and discussion. 　　Production 　China: According to data from the **Statistical Bureau, from January to November 2017, the country produced a total of 3.136 billion tons of raw coal, representing a 3.7% increase compared to the previous year. Among them, the output of raw coal in November was 300 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% on a year-on-year basis. 　　United States: According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, coal production in the United States from January to November 2017 was 723 million short tons (approximately 657 million tons), representing an 8.7% increase compared to the same period in 2016. 　　India: According to preliminary statistics compiled by agencies such as India’s Coal Ministry, India’s coal production from January to November 2017 was 610 million tons, representing a 3% increase on a year-on-year basis. Among them, coal production in November was 60.3 million tons, a 1% decrease year-on-year. 　　Russia: According to statistics from the Russian Federal Ministry of Energy, coal production from January to November 2017 was 372 million tons, an increase of 23.081 million tons compared to the previous year, representing a growth rate of 6.6%. It is expected that annual coal production will exceed 400 million tons, allowing it to return to levels close to Russia’s highest production figures before the dissolution of the Soviet Union (405 million tons in 1990). In November, Russia’s coal production was 35.399 million tons, an increase of 1.531 million tons compared to the previous year, representing a growth rate of 4.5%. 　　Kazakhstan: According to data from the Statistical Committee of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Economy, coal production from January to November 2017 was 101 million tons, representing a 9.6% increase compared to the same period in 2016. Among them, the production in November was 10.428 million tons, a 0.4% decrease compared to the previous year. 　　Exports Australia: According to data released by the Australian Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, during the fiscal year 2016–2017 (from July 1, 2016, to June 30, 2017), Australia’s production of raw coal was 562 million tons, a 0.95% decrease compared to the previous fiscal year ； The output of commercial coal was 441 million tons, an increase of 0.2% on a year-on-year basis. Coal exports amounted to 379 million tons, a decrease of 9.37 million tons or 2.4% compared to the previous fiscal year. Of this amount, 202 million tons were coal for power generation, representing an increase of 1.69 million tons or 0.8% on a year-on-year basis ； Coking coal exports amounted to 178 million tons, a decrease of 11.06 million tons compared with the previous year, representing a decline of 5.9%. 　　Indonesia: According to statistics released by Indonesia’s **Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2017, Indonesia exported a total of 355 million tons of coal, representing a 5.5% increase compared to the previous year. Among them, coking coal exports amounted to 59.795 million tons, a decrease of 21.8% year on year ； Exports of non-coking bituminous coal amounted to 39.056 million tons, a decrease of 6.3% on a year-on-year basis ； Lignite exports amounted to 63.884 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%. In November, Indonesia exported 34.084 million tons of coal, an increase of 387,000 tons compared to the previous year, representing a growth rate of 1.2%. 　　Russia: From January to November 2017, coal exports amounted to 170 million tons, the highest level on record for the same period, representing an increase of 20.006 million tons or 13.3% compared with the previous year. In November, coal exports amounted to 15.339 million tons, an increase of 1.211 million tons compared to the previous year, representing a growth rate of 8.6%. 　　United States: According to data released by the U.S. **Bureau of Statistics, coal exports from the United States in October 2017 amounted to 8.31 million tons, representing a 88.3% increase year-on-year and reaching a level not seen since March 2014 ； From January to October, the United States exported 70.7 million tons of coal, a 70% increase on a year-on-year basis; it is estimated that total coal exports for the whole year will reach 84.8 million tons, representing a 55.1% increase compared to the previous year. 　　Mongolia: According to statistics released by Mongolia’s **Statistics Office, from January to November 2017, Mongolia’s coal production amounted to 43.5535 million tons, an increase of 13.25 million tons compared to the previous year, representing a growth rate of 43.7% ； Coal exports amounted to 31.329 million tons, an increase of 9.133 million tons compared with the previous year, representing a growth rate of 41.1%. However, both coal production and exports declined significantly in November, falling by 23.8% and 16.3% on a year-on-year basis respectively. 　　Imports China: From January to November 2017, coal imports amounted to 248 million tons, representing an 8.5% increase on a year-on-year basis. In November alone, coal imports were 22.05 million tons, showing a 18.2% decline compared to the previous year. 　　Taiwan, China: According to preliminary statistics from the Taiwan region’s customs, in November 2017, Taiwan imported 4.782 million tons of coal, a decrease of 15.27% on a month-to-month basis and 9.86% on a year-to-year basis. From January to November 2017, a total of 64.128 million tons of coal were imported, representing a 5.65% increase compared with the previous year. 　　Japan: According to the customs import and export trade statistics released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance, from January to November 2017, Japan imported 175.373 million tons of coal, a 0.21% decrease compared to the same period in 2016. Among them, coal imports in November amounted to 16.35 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% on a year-on-year basis. 　　South Korea: According to statistics released by South Korean customs, from January to November 2017, South Korea imported 136 million tons of coal, an increase of 15.376 million tons compared to the previous year, representing a growth rate of 12.8%. Among them, coal imports in November amounted to 11.64 million tons, an increase of 221,000 tons compared with the previous year, representing a growth rate of 1.9%. 　　India: According to the import and export statistics for goods released by India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry, coal imports in November 2017 amounted to 19.18 million tons, representing a 40% increase compared to the same period in 2016. It is estimated that India will import around 200 million tons of coal throughout 2017. 　　Vietnam: According to statistics released by Vietnam’s **Statistics Authority, coal production in Vietnam from January to November 2017 was 34.841 million tons, a 1% decrease compared to the previous year. Among them, coal production in November was 3.439 million tons, a 0.2% increase on a year-on-year basis. According to statistics from the General Department of Customs under Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance, from January to November 2017, Vietnam exported 1.977 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 106% ； Coal imports amounted to 12.959 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Among them, coal exports in November amounted to 338,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 182.4% ； Coal imports amounted to 1.449 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. 　　Thailand: According to Thai customs statistics, from January to November 2017, Thailand imported 20.515 million tons of coal, an increase of 593,000 tons compared to the previous year, representing a growth rate of 2.98%. Among them, coal imports in November amounted to 1.636 million tons, a decrease of 6.8% on a year-on-year basis. 　　Philippines: According to preliminary statistics released by the Customs Bureau of the Philippine Treasury, coal imports from January to October 2017 totaled 20.269 million tons, exceeding the total coal imports for the entire year of 2016. These imports were 3.364 million tons higher than in the previous year, representing a growth rate of 19.9%. Author/Source: China Coal Economics Research Association