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The environment in which the methanol industry develops is severe and complex. On July 20, Gu Zongqin, president of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, stated at the 2022 China Methanol Industry Conference held in Jinan, Shandong, that due to the special properties of methanol products – which serve as both widely used basic chemical raw materials and important energy sources – there are many factors that influence the development of this industry. Various contradictions exist, and both favorable conditions and restrictive factors play a role, resulting in a severe and complex environment for the industry’s growth. Regarding the international environment, Gu Zongqin analyzed that, first, there are fluctuations in international energy prices. The second is the changes in the international methanol market. Since August 2021, driven by both a shortage in supply and strong demand, global natural gas prices have soared, which in turn has led to shortages of coal and oil, resulting in record-high prices for natural gas, coal, and crude oil. Entering 2022, with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Brent crude oil prices rose above $100 per barrel for the first time in seven years, while natural gas prices in Europe also reached record highs. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, international energy prices have risen further driven by geopolitics, thereby introducing greater uncertainty into the international energy market. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the impact of oil and gas on the methanol industry stems primarily from the raw material supply side. There is a competitive relationship of substitution among chemical products derived from oil routes, petroleum products, chemical products produced from domestic coal via methanol, and methanol fuels. The future struggle between international oil supply and demand will continue, and its impact on the methanol industry is inevitable. In terms of natural gas, the ongoing global transition to clean energy and the rapid growth of the world economy will drive up demand for natural gas. This, in turn, will affect the prices of internationally traded methanol derived from natural gas and its competitiveness in the Chinese market, as well as the supply-demand balance in the domestic market. Gu Zongqin pointed out that the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical events have become one of the key factors affecting international markets, triggering sequential changes in trade flows, with Europe being the most affected. In the short term, there are no signs of any relaxation in Europe’s economic sanctions against Russia, and Russian methanol exports to Europe may face obstacles, leading to changes in its direction of shipment. For Europe itself, natural gas prices remain high despite some decline; if these high prices persist, they will further squeeze the profits of European natural gas-based methanol plants, thereby affecting their operating capacity and leading to an increased demand gap. The average price of methanol in Europe has consistently been on the higher side globally, and movements driven by profit-seeking in regions such as the Americas and the Middle East will also become more pronounced. If sanctions on Iran by Europe and the United States are eased, Iranian methanol may also flow to Europe. Regarding new installations, the number of units expected to come online this year is very limited, and there is limited new international supply. Of course, China remains the world’s largest methanol market, and the volume of imported methanol will most likely stay at a high level. Regarding the domestic environment, Gu Zongqin explained that, first, the dual-carbon goals drive the transformation and upgrading of the industry as well as its high-quality development. Second, high coal prices may become the norm. Since our country set the dual-carbon goals, **relevant authorities and various regions** have successively issued corresponding policies, and control measures have been put into effect; in particular, the requirements regarding energy consumption control are very strict. In February this year, four departments including the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Implementation Guidelines for Energy Conservation and Carbon Emission Reduction Upgrades in Key Areas of High-Energy-Consumption Industries (2022 Edition)”. The document requires that by 2025, the proportion of production capacity in the coal-based methanol industry that meets or exceeds the energy efficiency benchmark level should reach 30%, while production capacity below the benchmark level should be virtually eliminated. However, in the \"Benchmark and Baseline Levels of Energy Efficiency for Key Sectors in High-Energy-Consuming Industries (2021 Edition)\\" issued at the end of last year by five departments including the National Development and Reform Commission, the benchmark and baseline levels for coal-based methanol are much higher than the current national standards. Taking methanol production using bituminous coal as a example, according to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, 26.5% of the existing production capacity falls short of the benchmark level, while only 12% meets that standard; there is still a significant gap between this and the **set targets. Merely the task of reducing energy consumption alone will be a huge challenge for the industry. Gu Zongqin pointed out that this year’s national **** work report also mentioned the need to “resolutely curb the blind development of projects with high energy consumption, high emissions, and low standards.” Promote the shift from ‘dual control’ of energy consumption to ‘dual control’ of total carbon emissions and their intensity.” The methanol industry faces severe challenges in achieving green and low-carbon development. At the same time, it should be noted that as our country advances in an orderly manner toward achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the path to these goals is becoming increasingly clear. Gu Zongqin explained that since 2021, driven by rising international energy prices, and also because the growth rate of domestic coal production was lower than that of demand from downstream industries, the supply and demand for coal were in a tight balance. As a result, coal prices showed an upward trend, reaching their highest level on record in October 2021. As regulatory measures took effect and coal supply increased, prices declined somewhat, but they remain at historically high levels. According to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, the price of gasified bituminous coal at the factory at the beginning of July was around 1,350 yuan per ton. Driven by the dual-carbon goals, the number of newly approved coal mining projects across the country has declined significantly in recent years. Since last year, due to rising coal prices, an additional capacity of about 220 million tons has been approved for expansion. However, this additional capacity was approved as a special measure for a particular situation, and given the need to maintain continuity in policies, it remains uncertain how much output will actually be generated from this capacity. There is still potential for growth in national electricity demand; the current increase in new energy installations and their output levels are not sufficient to meet this demand, so the need for thermal power generation continues to rise. At the same time, the \"Guiding Principles for High-Quality Development of the Coal Industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period\" issued by the China Coal Industry Association state that by the end of this period, domestic coal production should be kept at around 4.1 billion tons, while national coal consumption should be around 4.2 billion tons, with an average annual growth rate of about 1%. Overall, given the tight supply of coal, prices are likely to remain high.