In 2024, China’s apparent consumption of methanol exceeded 100 million tons for the first time

Thread Content

China’s apparent consumption of methanol exceeded 100 million tons for the first time. As reported at the 2025 China Methanol Industry Conference held in Qinzhou, Guangxi on April 23, the performance of China’s methanol industry improved in 2024, with apparent consumption surpassing the 100 million tons mark for the first time, reaching 105.149 million tons. 　　Gu Zongqin, president of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, said at the meeting that in 2024, faced with a complex and severe situation, the growth rate of methanol production capacity in China slowed down, while output increased significantly; the market saw some improvement, and green methanol experienced rapid development. 　　The growth rate of methanol production capacity has slowed down. According to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, in 2024 China’s methanol production capacity reached 109.776 million tons per year, an increase of 3.4% compared to the previous year; however, the growth rate declined by 2.4 percentage points, with an actual increase of 4.3 million tons per year. The new methanol production capacity in 2024 will involve only 6 projects; 4 of these use coal as raw material, with a production capacity of 3.5 million tons per year, while 2 use coke oven gas and calcium carbide off-gases as raw materials, with a production capacity of 800,000 tons per year. Both the increase in production capacity and the number of new units put into operation are at their lowest levels in the past five years. 　　As of the end of 2024, China’s coal-to-methanol production capacity reached 85.97 million tons per year, accounting for 78.3% of the total capacity, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. Among this, the capacity of coal-to-methanol plants utilizing new coal gasification technologies was 79.63 million tons per year, making up 72.5% of the total capacity—a rise of 4.6% compared to the previous year. Projects for the comprehensive utilization of waste gases such as coke oven gas to produce methanol have been gradually completed amid the transformation and upgrading of the coking industry, resulting in a significant decrease in the number of such projects. The production capacity associated with these projects amounts to 15.8 million tons per year, accounting for 14.4% of the total capacity, representing a 6% increase on a year-on-year basis. In terms of scale, among the new projects put into operation in 2024, only the Baofeng facility in Inner Mongolia has a capacity of 1 million tons per year or more; the remaining 5 facilities have capacities of less than 60,000 tons per year. 　　Production increased significantly year-on-year. According to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, China’s methanol production in 2024 was 91.822 million tons, an increase of 8.65 million tons compared to the previous year, representing a growth rate of 10.4%. This represents an increase of 6.7 percentage points, and it is the highest level recorded in nearly seven years. 　　In terms of production processes, the output from single-alcohol plants was 87.508 million tons, accounting for 95.3% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4%. The output from dual-alcohol plants was 4.314 million tons, representing only 4.7% of the total, but there was a significant increase of 34.5% in this category. This increase in production was not due to the synthesis of methanol as a by-product of ammonia production, but rather to projects that utilize waste gases such as coke oven gas and carbide furnace off-gases to produce methanol, which have been put into operation over the past two years. 　　Based on an analysis of the raw material structure, the production of methanol from coal amounted to 77.014 million tons, accounting for 83.9% of the total production, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. The production of methanol from sources such as coke oven gas was 10.352 million tons, representing 11.3% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. Methanol production using natural gas as a raw material remained relatively stable, with little change. 　　The methanol market has seen a slight overall improvement. The weak trend in the methanol market in 2024 eased, with production increasing significantly at a rate higher than that of capacity expansion, indicating an improvement in the profits of methanol producers. According to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, the average ex-plant price of methanol in 2024 was 2,421 yuan per ton, which is 83 yuan higher per ton compared to 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. 　　There are mainly three reasons for the improvement in the methanol market. Firstly, it comes to production costs; in China, bituminous coal is the primary raw material used for methanol production. In 2024, the average price of bituminous coal at the factory gate was 973 yuan per ton, a 11.6% decrease compared to the previous year, which reduced the cost pressures associated with methanol production from coal. 　　Next, methanol imports are expected to decline slightly in 2024; last year’s import volume was 13.484 million tons, a decrease of 1.069 million tons compared to the previous year, representing a decline rate of 7.3%. Among imported methanol, the volume coming from the Middle East increased to 10.27 million tons, a 10.5% rise on a year-on-year basis. The decline in imports was mainly due to the shutdown of production facilities in New Zealand and Trinidad and Tobago, as well as rising methanol prices in Europe and the United States, which led to some of the supply flowing to those markets. 　　Third, the supporting force of downstream consumption has increased. The apparent consumption of methanol in 2024 was 105.149 million tons, an increase of 7.8% compared to the previous year. In downstream consumption, coal (methanol)-based olefin production still holds the leading position, but due to the influence of the olefin market, the increase in demand is not significant. Meanwhile, downstream demand for acetic acid, polyoxymethylene, MTBE, BDO, methanol fuel, etc. has seen significant growth, providing some support to the methanol market. 　　The green methanol industry is booming. In recent years, with the rapid development of the new energy industry and the broad application prospects as well as significant demand potential of green methanol in areas such as marine fuels, fuel cells, and green chemical manufacturing, both domestic and international parties are actively planning green methanol projects. 　　According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of June 2024, there were 102 green methanol projects under planning overseas, with a total planned production capacity of around 13.27 million tons per year. Domestically, as of the end of July last year, there were 78 green methanol projects that were in operation, under construction, registered, or in the contract phase. The total planned production capacity exceeded 26 million tons per year, with the cumulative planned capacity reaching over 50 million tons per year. Since last year, a number of green methanol projects have been launched one after another. According to available data, as of the beginning of this year, 16 large-scale green methanol projects have been officially launched in China, with a production capacity of 2.77 million tons per year; the planned capacity is around 5 million tons per year. New green methanol projects are expected to come online this year. 　　Gu Zongqin said that China’s methanol industry has entered a new phase, one that is filled with significant challenges but also presents opportunities for development. The entire industry must actively explore and be bold in innovation, taking the cultivation and development of new forms of productive forces as a key approach to promote the green, low-carbon, and high-quality development of China’s methanol industry.