【Haichuan Hydrogen Energy】A turning point is approaching! ! ! Cost of hydrogen production via water electrolysis to drop by 20%!
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Recently, Guolian Securities released a report stating that the large-scale adoption of new energy sources has brought economic viability to hydrogen power, and this will also greatly contribute to the continued development and growth of the hydrogen industry. Through calculations, the report finds that the cost of hydrogen production connected to the grid in Shanxi Province can be as low as 15.2 yuan/kg. If the cost reduction resulting from the use of high-purity green oxygen is taken into account, the cost of electrically produced hydrogen drops to 9.6 yuan/kg, which is lower than the cost of hydrogen produced from coal at 11.3 yuan/kg, and significantly lower than the cost of hydrogen produced from natural gas at 21.8 yuan/kg. The price of transmission and distribution capacity accounts for a large proportion of electricity cost; in the future, there may be more policies offering electricity price discounts. Considering off-grid hydrogen production using wind and solar power, the current cost in various provinces is around 13–17 yuan/kg (excluding green oxygen), and it already has potential to serve as a substitute. In the future, as electricity consumption, costs, and electricity prices (or the costs of integrated power sources) decline, along with an increase in operating hours, the cost of hydrogen production via water electrolysis could be reduced by more than 20% overall. An economic turning point has been reached for both grid-connected and off-grid hydrogen production. Including hydrogen storage and transportation, and when the fixed investment is allocated based on the amount of hydrogen consumed, the additional cost per unit of hydrogen is approximately 2.5 yuan/kg. When considering the construction of synthetic ammonia plants as part of this setup, the overall cost is around 12.5 yuan/kg, which is already very close to the cost of hydrogen produced from coal. Given that hydrogen produced from coal also has certain transportation limitations, and that the cost of electric hydrogen can still be reduced significantly, the green hydrogen + green ammonia approach may already possess economic viability for industrial use, enabling the development of integrated production capabilities for green hydrogen, green oxygen, and green ammonia.
The report states that as new energy sources develop on a larger scale, the cost of producing hydrogen through water electrolysis is expected to drop by more than 20%; the cost of producing hydrogen for grid connection could fall to 15.2 yuan per kilogram, while the cost for off-grid production is around 13–17 yuan per kilogram. Taking into account the costs of hydrogen storage and transportation, the additional cost per unit of hydrogen is approximately 2.5 yuan/kg, resulting in an overall cost of around 12.5 yuan/kg – a figure close to that of hydrogen produced from coal. Moreover, the green hydrogen + green ammonia approach already possesses economic viability as a substitute in industrial applications. In the future, as electricity consumption, costs, and electricity prices decline while utilization hours increase, there will be even more room for reducing the costs of producing hydrogen through water electrolysis. .