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According to reports from Sinochem New Network, recent forecasts by most investment banks and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) suggest that, due to an ongoing supply surplus, the average oil price in 2026 will be below $60 per barrel. The main reasons for this are weak growth in global demand as well as an increase in production by OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries. The latest short-term energy outlook from EIA predicts that global oil inventories will continue to rise in 2026, with the average price of Brent crude at $54 in the first quarter and $55 for the whole year – an increase of $3 compared to the previous month – due to China’s purchases for strategic reserves and tighter sanctions on Russian oil. However, market fundamentals still lead the agency to be pessimistic about oil prices next year. The Macquarie Group expects oil prices to fall next year, but sanctions on Russia, the situation in Venezuela, and cold winter weather in the United States may slow down the decline in oil prices; as a result, OPEC+ might need to cut production in the second half of 2026 to stabilize the market. ABN AMRO Bank notes that weak demand for crude oil combined with an increase in supply has led to a surplus. Although Chinese stockpiling and geopolitical uncertainties have prevented sharp drops in oil prices, this surplus will persist through 2026. Brent oil prices are expected to be at $58 in the first quarter, $52 by mid-year, $50 by year’s end, with an average annual price of $55. SEB Bank believes that the trend of falling oil prices is evident, and the geopolitical premium resulting from the tense situation in Venezuela cannot counteract the downward pressure posed by increased supply and an oversupply situation. A Reuters survey at the end of November showed that an oversupply situation will be a key factor in the crude oil market in 2026; the U.S. benchmark oil price could fall below $60, with the WTI average at $59 and Brent at $62.23 (down from $63.15 in October). Goldman Sachs predicts an average WTI price of $53, stating that 2026 will be the year when the last wave of excess supply needs to be absorbed, with the market potentially returning to balance by 2027. Furthermore, the situations in Venezuela, Russia, and Iran are considered important geopolitical factors. If U.S. military intervention in Venezuela undermines its production of heavy crude oil, it will have a significant impact on global benchmark oil prices, increasing the gap between the Dubai benchmark price and the Brent price.