How much more can the use of imported crude oil be increased?

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Recently, the Shaanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission submitted a request titled \"Request regarding Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum (Group) Co., Ltd.’s application to use imported crude oil,\" seeking approval for the company’s use of crude oil. It is reported that the company was established in 1905 and is a large state-owned enterprise engaged in the integrated development, conversion, and utilization of resources such as oil, gas, and coal. It currently has a primary processing capacity for crude oil of 17.4 million tons, and its gasoline and diesel products meet the National V standards. The company plans to apply for permission to use 3.6 million tons of imported crude oil per year by phasing out its own outdated production capacity of 3 million tons (two units of 1.5 million tons each). 　　Since the issuance of the \"Notice on Issues Related to the Management of the Use of Imported Crude Oil\" in February 2015, local refineries have submitted applications for the right to import crude oil. To date, 11 local refineries in China have been granted the right to import crude oil, of which 7 have received official approval while 4 are still in the public announcement phase. The specific details are shown in the table below: Table 1: Import crude oil allocation for various enterprises. Unit: 10,000 tons/year. Name, Region, Crude oil quota, Reserved production capacity, Phased-out production capacity, Status: Dongming Petrochemical, Heze – 750, 750, 600; Approved. Panjin Beiran, Liaoning – 700, 700, 600. Hongrun Petrochemical, Weifang – 530, 570, 330. Lijin Petrochemical, Dongying – 350, 350, 250. Manli Petrochemical, Dongying – 252, 300, 210. Baota Petrochemical, Ningxia – 616, 750, 170. Yatong Petrochemical, Dongying – 276, 350, 230. Huifeng Petrochemical, Zibo – 416, 580, 180; Under review. Tianhong Chemical, Dongying – 439.68, 500, 342. Shouguang Luqing, Weifang – 258, 300, 215. Shandong Dongbo, Binzhou – 331.23, 502, 300. However, under optimistic circumstances, if all local refineries that meet the requirements specified in the “Notice” – namely those with a single or more processing units with a capacity of over 200 million tons per year (not including that amount), and which have phased out all refining units with a capacity of 200 million tons per year or less (including that amount) – apply for such rights and succeed in obtaining them, then based on the current statistics provided by Zhuochuang Information regarding the capabilities of local refineries, it is estimated that there will still be 10 local refineries that meet the conditions for applying for import crude oil rights (excluding the refineries owned by the Yanchang Group). Table 2: Remaining local refineries with a crude oil processing capacity of over 2 million tons per year. Company name, total annual capacity: Shandong Changyi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. – 500, 150; CNOOC Asphalt (Binzhou) Co., Ltd. – 250, 100, 100; Shandong Huaxing Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. – 600, 100; Shandong Chenxi Group Co., Ltd. – 350, 30; Dongying Qirun Chemical Co., Ltd. – 300, 60; Shandong Zhenghe Group Co., Ltd. – 350, 200; Shandong Shenchili Petrochemical Co., Ltd. – 250, 100; Shandong Yuhuang Shengshi Chemical Co., Ltd. – 300; Dongying Haikelerin Chemical Co., Ltd. – 300; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical – 500. According to the provisions in the relevant notice, the amount of oil that local refineries can apply for is directly related to the scale of their outdated production capacities that need to be phased out, the progress of oil product upgrading, and the construction of peak-shaving gas storage facilities. Well, if we for now ignore the possibility of local refineries merging or reorganizing their other processing units, and instead only phase out those units with a capacity of 2 million tons per year or less (including that amount), and complete the upgrading of their gasoline and diesel production, then the amount of oil that local refineries will be allowed to use will be 1.2 times the capacity of the units that are phased out. That is, 8.4 million tons * 1.2 = 10.08 million tons.