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In the short term, world development still relies on fossil fuels

2015-12-18View Original

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Despite the ongoing decline in international oil prices, there are continuous reports of an oversupply of crude oil. However, the latest World Energy Outlook report released by the International Energy Agency suggests that developing countries in Asia **will be the main hub for global energy demand in the future. Industrial power still relies on fossil fuels. China is a major energy consumer, and its shift to a development model with lower energy intensity has a significant impact on global energy trends. Throughout the International Energy Agency’s forecast period, China will remain the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal ; By the 2030s, China will surpass the United States to become the largest oil consumer, and its natural gas market will be larger than that of the European Union, despite having a higher capacity for renewable energy generation than any other country. Policy choices are also changing the profile of China’s energy system and its pace of development. In 2005, only 3% of China’s energy consumption was subject to mandatory efficiency standards; today, about half of China’s energy consumption is subject to such standards. Furthermore, ongoing improvements in energy efficiency, along with low-carbon energy sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power, have slowed down China’s emission growth, with emissions reaching a peak around 2030. Natural gas is well-suited for a gradually low-carbon energy system, as it can replace fuels with higher carbon intensity or support the integration of renewable energy sources; its consumption has increased by almost 50%, making it the fastest-growing fossil fuel. China and the Middle East are the main hubs for growing natural gas demand, with both becoming larger consumers than the European Union. Currently, China is continuously developing shale gas to reduce its reliance on coal mines. The pace of growth in unconventional natural gas in China represents a major source of uncertainty in the market. Policies aimed at encouraging the development of unconventional natural gas have been put in place, and production is expected to exceed 250 billion cubic meters by 2040. However, complex geological conditions, limited water resources, high population densities in some key resource-rich areas, as well as regulatory issues related to pricing, access to resources, and domestic pipelines, all pose obstacles to a very rapid increase in production. Therefore, the development of natural gas will not be smooth sailing. Whether it’s coal, oil, or natural gas, it may not be possible to give up fossil fuels in daily life in the short term.

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