The future of energy and methanol
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Crude oil prices have fallen below $30, the price of methanol in Yulin and Ordos has dropped to around 1,200 yuan, while the price of lump coal has fallen below 130 yuan. The import volume of bulk chemicals such as crude oil, olefins, and aromatics is relatively high. Looking at the domestic chemical industry at present, there is a need for discussion regarding whether new olefin and aromatic compounds production facilities should use methanol as the starting material, or crude oil, shale gas condensate, or products derived from refining processes
It’s difficult to use those materials you mentioned for projects in the domestic market; even if crude oil were that cheap, how many people would be able to get their hands on it? There are too many factors that affect the price of crude oil. How much is there of shale gas condensate? Large-scale use still needs to be seen; with refining and extraction, it’s clear that this is something the three major oil companies will handle, and everything that needs to be done has probably already been done. For those who want to enter this field outside the big three oil companies, the simplest approach is to import or purchase methanol for use in those projects you mentioned. A more complicated method involves using coal to produce methanol, which is then used to manufacture olefins; this is a more established approach. There is an overcapacity in coal production, and with no way to sell it, it has once again become a buyer’s market; prices are even lower in areas near the coal-producing regions, making it unattractive to buy from there.
If low-cost and sufficient amounts of crude oil can be obtained, aromatics production can proceed. If located near coal-producing areas in the northwest, coal-based olefins, EVA, and the like could be considered; the coal needs to be cheap enough. Either be close to cheap raw materials or close to the market; you need to have at least one of those advantages.