Summary Post on the Methanol Market Conditions and Prices in March 2016

Analysis of methanol price trends on March 2, 2016: http://www.chemcp.com. On March 2, 2016, China Chemical Products Network reported that in Shandong Province, methanol prices were affected by weak market conditions and poor sales in the northwestern region. The ex-factory prices set by major enterprises in Shandong dropped by 50 yuan per ton, settling at 1,690–1,750 yuan per ton. For enterprises in the central and eastern parts of the province, the typical ex-factory price was around 1,750 yuan per ton. Traders in Zibo and its surrounding areas quoted prices of approximately 1,700 yuan per ton； Retail prices in the south range from 1,690 to 1,700 yuan per ton, while traders offering delivery to Linyi area without invoices quote around 1,690 yuan per ton. The spot prices for major enterprises in northwestern Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have dropped by 60 yuan per ton, to 1460 yuan per ton, while the acceptance prices are at 1630 yuan per ton ； The ex-factory price for enterprises in northern Shaanxi is 1,480–1,520 yuan per ton, while the spot price in central Shaanxi is 1,570 yuan per ton; the price under acceptance is 1,630 yuan per ton ； The ex-factory prices for enterprises along the northern route in Inner Mongolia range from 1,460 to 1,480 yuan per ton, while those for enterprises along the southern route are at 1,520 yuan per ton. The methanol market in the Northeast region remains stable. The ex-plant prices of methanol produced from coal and coke oven gas in Heilongjiang range around 1,950–2,450 yuan per ton, while the prevailing selling prices are around 1,850–1,900 yuan per ton. Supply is tight in the market, and the product is mainly sold locally as well as in Jilin ； Affected by Tangshan, the quotes provided by major traders in Liaoning range from 1,950 to 2,000 yuan per ton. In the southwestern region, the mainstream market price ranges from 1,850 to 2,000 yuan per ton, while the actual transaction price is between 1,750 and 1,800 yuan per ton; manufacturers generally adhere to the terms of their contracts ； The actual transaction prices among the major manufacturers in Sichuan and Chongqing are around 1,800–1,830 yuan per ton; the purchasing atmosphere among end-users is weak, and the actual transaction figures still need to be monitored. The major manufacturers in Anhui region are operating normally, with stable pricing. Today’s prevailing acceptance price is 1770–1780 yuan per ton, while the actual transaction prices are slightly lower; contracts are generally followed. In the Henan region, the prevailing quoted price is 1,800 yuan per ton; actual transactions are conducted at 1,650–1,680 yuan per ton. For traders in Luoyang, the typical quote ranges from 1,630 to 1,770 yuan per ton. Market activity remains moderate. In the southern and southeastern parts of Shanxi province, prices dropped by 20 yuan per ton today; the prices offered by major manufacturers range from 1550 to 1630 yuan per ton. The production facilities in Jincheng are operating steadily, with quoted prices of 1650 yuan per ton ； In Linfen, spot shipments are priced at around 1,550–1,570 yuan per ton ； The export price in Changzhi is 1,630–1,640 yuan per ton; the shipment volume is average. The ex-factory price from the main manufacturers in Hubei region is 1,820 yuan per ton, while traders in Wuhan quote 1,950 yuan per ton ； The ex-factory price from the main manufacturers in Hunan is 1,920 yuan per ton, while traders in Changsha quote 2,020 yuan per ton. Today, the prevailing quotes in Hebei region range from 1,730 to 1,850 yuan per ton; the higher end of this range is seen in the Tangshan area. Market transactions have been sluggish, and a downward trend is expected in the market ； The export price for enterprises in Shijiazhuang and its surrounding areas is around 1,680–1,710 yuan per ton, while the trading price is between 1,650–1,700 yuan per ton ； The ad-hoc price without a formal quote in the Wen’an area is 1,700 yuan per ton ； The prevailing selling price in Tangshan is 1,850 yuan per ton. The methanol market in Fujian remains stable; the ex-plant prices offered by major companies are between 1,850 and 1,900 yuan per ton, with actual transaction prices subject to negotiation. Port prices also range from 1,850 to 1,900 yuan per ton, again with actual prices negotiable. Recent demand for methanol has been weak, resulting in limited trading activity. The methanol market in South China saw a slight increase; the price of methanol at ports in Guangdong was between 1,790 and 1,820 yuan per ton. Some transactions took place in the morning at 1,790–1,800 yuan per ton, with moderate activity in the market.

Methanol quotes on March 3, 2016. http://www.chemcp.com March 3, 2016. China Chemical Products Network. Enterprise/Region, Name, Type, Price, Remarks. Cangzhou Zhongtie Coking: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1740, Ex-factory quote. ENN Group New Energy: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1550, Quoted price for external sales. Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1460, Quote provided. Shaanxi Shenmu Chemical: Methanol, Industrial grade, 0, No quote available. Inner Mongolia Shilin Chemical: Methanol, Industrial grade, 0, Current price not available. Henan Hebi Coal & Electricity: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1750, Quote provided. Hunan Yihua: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1920, Stable quote. Anhui Linquan: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1780, Quote based on acceptance terms. Heilongjiang Jianlong Steel: Methanol, Industrial grade, 0, Ex-factory quote. Jiangsu Yizhou Coal & Coking: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1720, Quote provided. Shandong New Energy Phoenix: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1740, Steady shipments. Jiangsu Hengsheng: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1750, Quote provided. Anhui Haoyuan: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1780, Ex-factory quote based on acceptance terms. Shanxi Jiantao Wanxinda: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1650, Quote provided. Sichuan Chuanwei: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1900, Quote provided. Shandong Linyi Hengchang: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1740, Normal shipment volume. Shandong Linyi LanYue Chemical: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1730, Quoted price for external sales. Shanxi Coking: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1590, Quote provided. Sichuan Dazhou Iron & Steel: Methanol, Industrial grade, 0, No quote available. Guizhou Jinchi Chemical: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1750, Quote provided. Shanxi Jinfeng: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1650, Ex-factory quote for refined methanol based on acceptance terms. Hubei Sanning: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1820, Some products are used internally. Chongqing Wansheng: Methanol – 0, Not currently available for external sale. Shandong Mingshui Dahua: Methanol, Industrial grade, 0, Smooth shipments. Henan Xinlianxin: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1750, Quote provided. Shandong Alliance: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1750, Current quote provided. Hebei Tangshan Zhongrun: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1850, Mainly sold to nearby regions. Hebei Zhengyuan Chemical: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1780, Quote based on acceptance terms. Shandong Yankuang Group: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1700, Normal shipment volume. Shanxi Jiantao Lubao: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1680, Quote provided. Dalian Dahua: Methanol – 1950, Sold only locally. Hebei Shijiazhuang Jinshi: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1700, Cash payment required. Heilongjiang Qitaihe Jiwei: Methanol, Industrial grade, 1950, Quote provided. Heilongjiang Yidaxin: Methanol, Industrial grade, 0, No quote available. Hebei Dingzhou Tianlu New Energy: Methanol, Industrial grade, 0, No quote available. Daqing Oilfield: Methanol, Industrial grade, 2700, Ex-factory price. Heilongjiang China Coal Longhua: Methanol, Industrial grade, 2450, Quote provided. Heilongjiang Baotailong Coal: Methanol, Industrial grade, 2450, Quote provided. Keywords: Methanol, Price database

The methanol market is likely to remain in a weak trend. http://www.chemcp.com March 3, 2016 China Chemical Products Network. [Yesterday’s and Today’s Market Trends] The main 1605 contract for methanol futures opened at 1,825 yuan per ton on the previous trading day; the lowest price during the session was 1,802 yuan per ton, while the highest price was 1,841 yuan per ton. The contract closed at 1,815 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, or 1.11%, compared to the previous day’s closing price. The trading volume was 1.559 million contracts, with an open interest of 567,000 contracts. 【Fundamentals】 1. As of March 2, prices in the Central China region decreased by 10 yuan to 1,825 yuan per ton; in the Northeast region, they rose by 25 yuan to 1,900 yuan per ton. In the Southwest region, prices remained unchanged at 1,790 yuan per ton. In the Northwest region, prices fell by 20 yuan to 1,530 yuan per ton. In the East China region, prices stayed the same at 1,865 yuan per ton. In the South China region, prices increased by 10 yuan to 1,785 yuan per ton. Lastly, in the North China region, prices dropped by 20 yuan to 1,625 yuan per ton ； Additionally, the prices in the Hebei region have dropped by 10 yuan, ranging from 1660 to 1680 yuan per ton. In Inner Mongolia, methanol prices have fallen by 30 yuan, ranging from 1460 to 1540 yuan per ton. In Shaanxi, prices have dropped by 10 yuan, ranging from 1480 to 1600 yuan per ton. In southern Shandong, prices have fallen by 10 yuan, ranging from 1690 to 1700 yuan per ton. In Henan, prices have dropped by 25 yuan, ranging from 1620 to 1680 yuan per ton. In the Jiangsu market, prices have fallen by 8 yuan, ranging from 1805 to 1810 yuan per ton. Overall, there is moderate level of trading in these regions. 2. Foreign methanol spot quotes: As of March 1, the FOB Gulf Coast USA spot price stood at $142.12 per ton, a decrease of $1.67 from the previous trading day ； The CFR main port price in China remained unchanged at $217 per ton ； CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged at $222/ton ； FOB Rotterdam fell by 1 euro to €149/ton. 3. As of February 25, data showed that the weekly total inventory was 613,000 tons, down by about 4,000 tons from the previous week; it has remained around 600,000 tons recently. 4. Basis analysis: As of March 2, the price difference between the market price in Jiangsu and the futures price of the main methanol contract was -7 yuan per ton, compared to -8 yuan per ton on the previous trading day. In the South China region, the price difference between the local market price and the price of the main 1605 contract was -40 yuan per ton, whereas it was -48 yuan per ton on the previous trading day. 5. Position structure: On the previous trading day, for the 1605 contract, the number of long positions at the top tier increased by 9,527, while the number of short positions at the same tier increased by 24,249. Both types of positions saw an increase; the total number of short positions in the top twenty positions was 39,202 more than the number of long positions, indicating that the short side has an advantage in terms of position structure. Trading volume was 1.559 million lots, up by nearly 20,000 lots from the previous trading day. 6. News outlook: The mainland market is under pressure and showing a downward trend; given weak trading activity and a bearish market sentiment, an improvement is unlikely in the short term. The coastal methanol market saw mixed trends. Due to unstable market sentiment and the negative news regarding the shutdown of a major methanol-to-olefins plant in Zhejiang, a few large players in Jiangsu actively offered goods at low prices. Other traders followed suit; as a result, both futures and spot prices saw a significant decline. Businesses remain pessimistic. The South China market saw a slight increase, with the average transaction price rising by 5 yuan per ton. Sellers maintained firm pricing; low prices were hard to find in the afternoon. However, after the price increase, some downstream buyers adopted a wait-and-see attitude. 【Technical Analysis】 Looking at the daily chart of the MA1605 contract, the 5-day moving average is moving downward, while the 10-day, 20-day, and 40-day moving averages are moving upward. The 60-day moving average remains flat. BIAS has declined from its short-term high levels. The MACD has formed a golden cross and is rapidly moving above the zero line, indicating a potential for further rebounds in the short term. 【Operational advice】 Currently, the positive factors in the domestic methanol market have yet to materialize, and it will take some time before downstream production capacity is fully utilized; as a result, the market is likely to remain in a weak trend. In the short term, the methanol market along the coast is dominated by a bearish sentiment; some downstream users are suffering significant losses, and they generally resist purchasing raw materials at high prices, which is why the process of inventory buildup at ports is slow. Regarding the futures market, the author suggests that long positions can be held for now; there has been a certain decline over two consecutive days. However, the range of 1750–1765, which was emphasized by the author earlier on, provides strong support, so long positions can continue to be held. The stop-loss level should follow the previous recommendations, while the take-profit range could be set at 1920–1935.

Port spot prices for methanol remained strong, while prices in the interior areas continued to fall. http://www.chemcp.com March 3, 2016, China Chemical Products Network. Yesterday, port spot prices for methanol stayed firm, whereas prices in the interior regions continued to decline; in northern Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, prices dropped by 40–60 yuan per ton, while in central and northern Shandong, prices fell by 50 yuan per ton. There were little changes in the methanol market in Henan and Shanxi, with spot prices ranging from 1530 to 1900 yuan per ton. The lowest spot price at delivery warehouses increased by 20 yuan to 1785 yuan per ton (after taking into account premiums and discounts). The MA605 contract had a premium of 30 yuan over spot prices. Fundamentally, the support for olefins has weakened; the Xingxing 690,000-ton MTO plant is reducing its operations and is set to shut down in the near future. The 600,000-ton olefins plant at China Coal Mengda, which was supposed to start operating at the end of March, may also see a delay in commencing production. However, inventories among Northwest-based enterprises remain low, and production activity has declined. Meanwhile, port inventories are also low, and there has been a shortage of incoming shipments recently; thus, the support from low overall social inventories persists. In summary, the fundamentals surrounding methanol are mixed; after a rapid increase in prices earlier on, it is now in a period of consolidation, and a cautious approach with regard to price fluctuations is advisable.

It is expected that methanol futures may experience a minor uptrend in the later period. http://www.chemcp.com March 3, 2016, China Chemical Products Network. Internationally: On March 1, the closing price of methanol on an FOB basis at Rotterdam, Europe, was $163.7–164.8 per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the closing price of methanol on an FOB basis at the U.S. Gulf was $149.01–150.68 per ton, also unchanged from the previous trading day. The closing price of methanol under CFR Southeast Asia was $222–224 per ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. In the spot market: On March 2, methanol prices continued to rise in the East China, Central China, South China, and Southwest China regions. The mainstream price at ports in East China was 1,830–1,900 yuan per ton, up by 50–70 yuan per ton compared to the end of last month, while the mainstream price at ports in South China was 1,770–1,790 yuan per ton, an increase of 40 yuan per ton from the end of last month. The mainstream price inland ranged from 1,550–1,800 yuan per ton (with lower prices in Inner Mongolia), representing a rise of 150 yuan per ton at the lower end compared to the end of last month. In February, it coincides with the Lunar New Year holiday. Olefin manufacturers in the northwest regions such as Ningxia and Shaanxi continue to purchase methanol from external sources; however, the volume of such purchases decreased slightly ahead of the holiday. The operating rates of traditional methanol downstream industries such as those producing formaldehyde and dimethyl ether dropped to very low levels, with some companies leaving the market in advance, resulting in little activity in the market. After the holiday, a number of plants in the main production areas in the northwest were undergoing unexpected maintenance, which resulted in low levels of sellable inventory in those areas. Meanwhile, in regions such as Hebei and Shanxi, plant operations were at low levels due to environmental regulations and other factors, leading to reduced supply and thus a significant rise in market prices. Although Yankuang Rongxin’s 900,000 tons per year methanol plant was gradually restarted later on, the overall production volume remained low. Most traders in the market have gradually entered the sector, the number of logistics vehicles has increased, and freight costs have dropped. Meanwhile, traditional downstream industries such as those dealing with formaldehyde and dimethyl ether are recovering slowly, showing average market performance. On the supply side, the 400,000-ton/year methanol production facility in Inner Mongolia’s Boyuan has returned to normal operation; Chongqing Cabele’s 850,000-ton/year facility has been restarted. Yankuang Rongxin’s 900,000-ton/year facility is undergoing temporary maintenance, while Henan Yubei Chemical’s 150,000-ton/year facility has returned to normal operation. Shaanxi Changqing’s 600,000-ton/year facility, Shaanxi Coal Chemical’s clean energy production facility with a capacity of 600,000 tons/year, and Shaanxi Coal Chemical’s coking facility with a capacity of 200,000 tons/year are all under maintenance. CNOOC Jiantao’s 600,000-ton/year facility has returned to normal operation, and Shandong Mingshui Dahuahua’s facility has been restarted. Production activities in regions such as Shanxi and Hebei remain relatively stable, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. Facilities in the northwest region will gradually enter their maintenance period. Operational advice: Methanol saw strong volatility today, with a sharp rise in the afternoon. It encountered resistance at the 1850 level and declined rapidly toward the end of the trading day, closing on a slight decline. Fundamentally, from March to April, some enterprises undergo maintenance of their methanol production facilities during the spring period, resulting in a reduction in market supply. If domestic downstream demand recovers later on, the methanol market in certain areas of the country is likely to remain strong. From a technical perspective, methanol was driven by market trends today: it opened higher in the morning and continued to rise, with an attempt to break through the 1850 level. There was an increase in trading volume as well. With the sales peak approaching in March, the bullish sentiment in the market is strong, and it is expected that methanol futures may see another wave of upward momentum in the future. It is recommended that investors take small long positions above the 5-day moving average, while waiting for the market to gain momentum.

Analysis and forecast of domestic methanol price trends on March 3 http://www.chemcp.com March 3, 2016, China Chemical Products Network: The domestic spot market continued to decline in some areas. The second price adjustment in the northwest region has seen a drop of 40–60 yuan per ton; the current mainstream price is 1460–1600 yuan per ton ； Prices in the Bohai Rim region declined slightly; in Shanxi, they dropped by 20 yuan per ton, reaching 1550–1630 yuan per ton, while in northern Shandong they fell by 50 yuan per ton, settling at 1700–1750 yuan per ton ； Futures prices are rising, while port prices vary; those in East China have dropped by 10 yuan per ton, ranging from 1810 to 1900 yuan per ton, those in South China have risen by 10 yuan per ton, ranging from 1790 to 1810 yuan per ton, and prices in the other regions remain stable for now. 　　Currently, the traditional downstream markets in Hebei and Shandong are recovering slowly, making it difficult to increase demand. Additionally, falling freight costs from northern Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia to the Bohai Rim region have contributed to a continued decline in market conditions, with actual sales remaining weak. In the port area, new downstream maintenance activities have emerged, while traditional downstream recovery remains weak. However, overall sellable inventory levels are not high, leaving little room for industry players to maneuver. Today, prices from manufacturers in the northwest have dropped again; the decline was significant in Inner Mongolia, while overall sales performance was average ； Trading activity in the Central China region was moderate, with prices largely consolidating ； Shipments in the Bohai Rim region are average, with a continued decline ； Traffic in the Huaihai region is average, with stability being the dominant trend ； Futures prices rose, with ports showing mixed trends; Jiangsu in East China saw a slight decline, Zhejiang remained relatively stable, while South China experienced a slight rebound. Under the influence of multiple factors, the domestic methanol market is likely to remain largely range-bound in the near term, with possible localized or regional trends.

Analysis of methanol price trends on March 3, 2016: http://www.chemcp.com. As of March 3, 2016, according to China Chemical Products Network, the ex-factory prices of methanol offered by major manufacturers in Shandong province ranged from 1690 to 1750 yuan per ton. The mainstream ex-plant price in the central and eastern regions is around 1,750 yuan per ton. Quotations from traders in Zibo and its surrounding areas are around 1,700 yuan per ton. Retail prices in the south range from 1,690 to 1,700 yuan per ton, while traders offer prices of around 1,670 to 1,680 yuan per ton for deliveries to Linyi area without invoices. In the Northwest region, major enterprises in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia are quoting prices at 1,460 yuan per ton for spot transactions in foreign currency, while the price for acceptance-based transactions is 1,570 yuan per ton. Enterprises in northern Shaanxi are quoting at 1,480–1,520 yuan per ton. In the Guanzhong region of Shaanxi, major enterprises are offering prices starting from 1,520 yuan per ton for cash transactions, while the price for deferred payment terms is 1,570 yuan per ton ； The ex-factory price for enterprises in the northern region of Inner Mongolia is 1,460–1,480 yuan per ton, while that for enterprises in the southern region is 1,520 yuan per ton. The ex-plant prices of methanol manufacturers in Hebei region range from 1,700 to 1,850 yuan per ton. The export price for enterprises in Shijiazhuang and its surrounding areas has dropped by 30 yuan per ton, ranging between 1650–1680 yuan per ton; trade quotes are also in the range of 1650–1680 yuan per ton. In the Wen’an area, the ad-hoc price without a contract is 1,680–1,700 yuan per ton, while the standard selling price in Tangshan is 1,850 yuan per ton. The methanol market in the Northeast region remains stable. In Heilongjiang, the ex-factory prices for methanol produced from coal or coke oven gas range from 1,950 to 2,450 yuan per ton. The prevailing selling prices are around 1,850–1,900 yuan per ton. Market inventories remain low, with the main sales destinations being the local area and Jilin Province ； Affected by Tangshan, the quotes provided by major traders in Liaoning range from 1,950 to 2,000 yuan per ton. The ex-plant price of major manufacturers in the southern and southeastern parts of Shanxi Province ranges from 1,550 to 1,630 yuan per ton. The plants in Jincheng are operating stably, with quoted prices of 1,650 yuan per ton ； In Linfen, spot shipments are priced at around 1,550–1,570 yuan per ton ； The export price in Changzhi is 1,630–1,640 yuan per ton, with moderate trading activity ； Due to equipment maintenance and load reduction at some manufacturers, the current supply of goods is limited. In the southwestern region, the standard pricing for enterprises is 1,850–2,000 yuan per ton, while the actual delivery price is 1,750–1,800 yuan per ton, mainly for contract customers ； In the Sichuan-Chongqing region, the actual transaction prices for major suppliers are around 1,800–1,830 yuan per ton; the purchasing atmosphere among downstream buyers is weak, and trading activity in the market is moderate. The mainstream price in Fujian is 1,850–1,900 yuan per ton; the actual transaction price can be negotiated. The port price is also 1,850–1,900 yuan per ton, with the actual price subject to negotiation. There is a lack of demand for gas recently, resulting in weak trading activity. The market in Henan region is declining; local companies have reduced their prices by 50 yuan per ton, to 1750 yuan per ton, while the average selling price is around 1650 yuan per ton ； The mainstream quotes from traders in Luoyang are around 1,630–1,700 yuan per ton, with moderate shipment volumes. The low-end prices offered by major manufacturers in Hubei region are 1,820 yuan per ton, while Wuhan traders quote 1,950 yuan per ton ； The factory prices from the main manufacturers in Hunan Province are 1,920 yuan per ton, while traders in Changsha quote 2,020 yuan per ton. The market in Anhui region remains stable, with major enterprises operating their facilities normally. Currently, the prevailing acceptance-based quotes stand at 1,770–1,780 yuan per ton; actual transaction prices are slightly lower. Supplies are primarily directed toward contract customers. The price at Taicang port in Jiangsu is 1,810–1,820 yuan per ton; some transactions in Taicang this morning were made at around 1,810 yuan per ton ； The mainstream pricing in Nantong and Jiangyin is 1,840–1,860 yuan per ton ； Spot quotes at the Ningbo port range from 1,900 to 1,920 yuan per ton, with weak buying interest downstream. The methanol market in South China remained quiet and stable. Quotations at Guangdong ports stood at 1,800–1,820 yuan per ton. In the morning, some transactions were conducted at around 1,800 yuan per ton. Market sales remained mediocre.

Methanol prices as of March 4, 2016: http://www.chemcp.com. As of March 4, 2016, from China Chemical Products Network: Company/Region, Name, Type, Price, Notes. Shanxi Anze Yongxin – Methanol, industrial grade, 1600, quote available. Hebei Shijiazhuang Jinshi – Methanol, industrial grade, 1700, cash payment required. Henan Hebi Coal and Electricity – Methanol, industrial grade, 1750, quote available. New Energy Group of SNOW – Methanol, industrial grade, 1550, external quote. Inner Mongolia Shenhua Mengxi – Methanol, industrial grade, 0, external quote. Sichuan Chuanwei – Methanol, industrial grade, 1900, quote available. Shandong Yankuang Group – Methanol, industrial grade, 1710, regular shipments. Shandong Linyi Hengchang – Methanol, industrial grade, 1740, regular shipments. Shandong Linyi Lan Yue Chemical – Methanol, industrial grade, 1730, external quote. Tangshan Guyu Coal Coking – Methanol, industrial grade, 1750, cash price. Shandong Xinneng Phoenix – Methanol, industrial grade, 1750, stable shipments. Cangzhou China Railway Coking – Methanol, industrial grade, 1740, factory price. Shanxi Jiantao Lubao – Methanol, industrial grade, 1680, quote available. Sichuan Dazhou Iron and Steel – Methanol, industrial grade, 0, quote available. Guizhou Jinchi Chemical – Methanol, industrial grade, 1750, quote available. Hunan Yihua – Methanol, industrial grade, 1920, stable prices. Shandong Tengzhou Shenglong – Methanol, industrial grade, 1710, factory price. Anhui Linhuan Coking – Methanol, industrial grade, 1770, delivery against acceptance. Anhui Linquan – Methanol, industrial grade, 1780, quote based on acceptance. Hebei Zhengyuan Chemical – Methanol, industrial grade, 1780, quote based on acceptance. Anhui Haoyuan – Methanol, industrial grade, 1780, delivery against acceptance. Hebei Jinniu Xuyang – Methanol, price not specified, 1650, factory price. Shandong Union – Methanol, industrial grade, 1750, cash price. Hebei Dingzhou Tianlu New Energy – Methanol, industrial grade, 0, quote available. Shandong Mingshui Dahuahua – Methanol, industrial grade, 0, smooth shipments. Jiangsu Yizhou Coal Coking – Methanol, industrial grade, 1720, quote available. Jiangsu Hengsheng – Methanol, industrial grade, 1740, quote available. Hubei Sanning – Methanol, industrial grade, 1820, some products for internal use. Henan Xinlianxin – Methanol, industrial grade, 1750, quote available. Dalian Dahuahua – Methanol, price not specified, 1950, sold only locally. Heilongjiang China Coal Longhua – Methanol, industrial grade, 2450, quote available. Heilongjiang Baotailong Coal – Methanol, industrial grade, 2450, quote available. Heilongjiang Yidaxin – Methanol, industrial grade, 0, quote available. Daqing Oilfield – Methanol, industrial grade, 2700, factory price. Heilongjiang Qitaihe Jiwei – Methanol, industrial grade, 1950, quote available. Heilongjiang Jianlong Iron and Steel – Methanol, industrial grade, 0, factory price. Hebei Tangshan Zhunrun – Methanol, industrial grade, 1850, accepted by local suppliers. Shanxi Coking – Methanol, industrial grade, 1580, quote available. Shaanxi Shanjiao – Methanol, industrial grade, 1500, quote based on acceptance. Shanxi Yangmei Fengxi – Methanol, industrial grade, 1700, satisfactory shipments. Keywords: Methanol, price database

Driven by multiple positive factors, methanol is expected to regain strength. http://www.chemcp.com March 4, 2016 China Chemical Products Network. Affected by both the disappointment in optimistic expectations regarding olefin purchases and the expiration of central bank reverse repurchase operations ahead of the Spring Festival, domestic methanol futures failed to maintain their upward trend last week, showing a short-term adjustment. The main 1605 contract lost all of the gains made after the holiday, dropping to around 1,760 yuan per ton at one point. With the unexpected introduction of favorable measures to lower reserve requirements and a resurgence in the real estate market, investors have once again become optimistic about the demand prospects for methanol. Although the futures price of the methanol 1605 contract saw a rise followed by a slight decline yesterday, driven by positive factors, it is expected that the futures price will likely rise again in the future. 　　A weak economy still needs a supportive accommodative environment. At present, the domestic economy is still in the process of transformation and the shift from old to new drivers of growth, and this weak economic situation is likely to persist. **Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that China’s official manufacturing PMI was 49.0 in February this year, hitting a new low in over three years and remaining below the threshold separating expansion from contraction for seven consecutive months. Among them, the new orders index was 48.6%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, remaining below the critical level for two consecutive months, indicating that demand in the manufacturing sector is still declining. Therefore, amid the severe economic conditions, **in order to maintain reasonable liquidity in the financial system and create a favorable monetary and financial environment for supply-side structural reforms, a relatively loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented in the future. It can be seen that on Monday this week, the central bank unexpectedly reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points. While this move seemingly aimed to counter the liquidity pressures arising from the bulk maturity of reverse repurchase operations ahead of the Spring Festival, it was actually a signal to the market that monetary conditions would remain relatively loose. This move helps to drive up the price level of industrial products, thereby boosting the prices of methanol futures. 　　Spring maintenance for methanol plants is approaching. By analyzing the historical price trends of methanol, it can be observed that there is a upward trend in methanol prices every April. The underlying reason behind the rise in methanol prices is that after the long Spring Festival holiday, methanol downstream industries resumed production, with their operating rates gradually increasing, which led to a steady rise in demand for raw materials. At the same time, methanol producers’ manufacturing facilities entered spring maintenance mode, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand – supply became tighter while demand continued to rise – and this in turn drove up methanol prices. Based on the current information, most domestic methanol producers are set to carry out periodic maintenance campaigns in March and April this year. It is expected that the national methanol production capacity will decline significantly, supply pressures will gradually ease, market supplies will become tighter, and a seasonal rise in methanol prices is likely to occur again. 　　The recovery in the real estate sector boosts prospects for downstream methanol consumption. Thanks to measures such as lowering the down payment requirements for home purchases and reducing taxes on property transactions, real estate markets in first-tier cities and some second-tier cities have seen an increase in both volume and prices following the Spring Festival holiday. The widespread coverage by major media outlets of the booming real estate market has rekindled optimism in the market regarding rising housing prices, which in turn has indirectly boosted expectations of demand in industries related to real estate. This Wednesday, the building materials sector in China’s A-share market performed exceptionally well; driven by relatively optimistic fundamentals in the short term as well as a loose monetary environment, stocks related to sheet materials saw significant price increases. With the arrival of the peak season for sheet material demand, the usage of formaldehyde, which is a key component in adhesives, is expected to increase. Although the operating rate of formaldehyde production facilities in China remains low at present, it has shown a steady upward trend over the past two weeks; it is expected that demand for the raw material methanol will also increase accordingly in the future. Meanwhile, in terms of dimethyl ether, although the operating rate remains low in the short term, it has improved overall compared to the period before the holiday. The current market is focusing on the operating rates of MTO/MTP plants, which are downstream users of methanol; a sustained high level of operation in these plants is conducive to an improvement in demand for methanol. 　　In summary, amid the relatively loose monetary environment in the country, as the period of centralized maintenance for methanol production facilities approaches, supply pressures are likely to decrease, and a reduction in the supply of methanol will contribute to an increase in its prices. At the same time, traditional downstream demand sectors are entering a peak season, and with the recovery of the real estate market, demand is expected to increase steadily. It is expected that in the future, driven by improvements in the supply and demand balance and optimistic sentiment, methanol futures will regain strength.

Analysis of Key Points in the Methanol Market http://www.chemcp.com March 4, 2016 China Chemical Products Network. Although the methanol market in China showed an overall upward trend after the holiday, demand started to decline in various regions beginning in late February. By tracking the trends in regions such as East China, Shandong, and the Northwest, it is easy to see that since late February, the port market in East China has followed a different trajectory from that of the inland areas. Since February 1, the correlation coefficient between East China and Shandong is 0.49, while that between Shandong and the Northwest is 0.64. Clearly, against the backdrop of regional market trends, ports have experienced several noticeable fluctuations recently; in particular, since March, these fluctuations have been influenced by economic factors, news developments, and capital conditions... Figure 1: Comparison of trends in major domestic methanol markets Data source: Jinyin Island News On March 3, the main contract for Zhengzhou methanol dropped sharply after 10:30, reaching a low of 1776 during the day, a decrease of 2.09% compared to the previous day. The emergence of news regarding new measures to reduce downstream burdens and maintenance work has had a significant negative impact on the market, and the effects of this need to be further assimilated by the market. 　　Regarding the future market, the key factors that will influence it are listed as follows: 　　Positive factors: 　　1. The real estate sector has shown some recovery recently, and the “**” event is approaching ； A reserve requirement ratio cut during the week released liquidity, resulting in a relatively relaxed external environment. 　　2. Domestic methanol manufacturers have maintenance plans for their facilities; some of these are concentrated in the second half of March and April, and further monitoring is required ； Iran’s major methanol plants have not yet been restarted, which has reduced international supply to some extent. 　　3. With another round of price cuts in regions such as Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia during the week, some companies have now stopped selling their products. 　　4. In the traditional downstream applications of methanol, MTBE prices have been rising steadily recently, and the profitability of such products is fairly good. 　　5. Some newly built methanol-to-olefins projects in Shandong have plans to start operations this month, which will boost certain segments of the market ； The operation status of the new olefin plants in the Northwest region requires further monitoring, with market updates likely to come in the second quarter. 　　Negative factors: 1. The recovery of most traditional downstream products for methanol is relatively slow, resulting in limited support for the raw material; moreover, products such as acetic acid and dimethyl ether are operating at a loss. 　　2. Pay attention to the future trends regarding imported shipments at ports; some methanol shipments will arrive in the East China region, mainly in the Taicang area of Jiangsu. 　　3. New downstream demand for methanol is showing a decline. Among them, Zhejiang’s main methanol-to-olefins plants were shut down on the 3rd ； Operation rate of some facilities in Shandong drops to 70% ； In addition, there are still expectations of load reduction or maintenance in some new downstream facilities in ports and other areas. 　　Although there are positive factors in the methanol market, currently markets across various regions are characterized by low inventory levels and low demand. Upstream manufacturers are not operating at full capacity, resulting in relatively low inventory pressures, while downstream demand remains modest. The resumption of activities in traditional downstream sectors is slow; therefore, under this state of weak balance, the frequency and likelihood of market fluctuations increase. On March 3, major olefin producers in Zhejiang announced indefinite shutdowns for maintenance; at the same time, an olefin plant in Shandong reduced its operation capacity to around 70% of normal levels. Additionally, there are plans for further capacity reductions and maintenance activities at olefin plants in the ports of East China as well as in Shandong (further verification is needed). As a result, the news of weaker demand from downstream industries provided an opportunity for bearish forces to exert significant pressure on the market. According to incomplete statistics from Gold and Silver Island, around 180,000 tons of goods were scheduled to arrive at ports in East China during the first half of March. Under the expectations of weakening demand and increasing supply, methanol futures contract MA1605 saw a decline in positions, with daily volume increases reaching as much as 130,000 contracts; the price also dropped sharply from a high of 1839 to around 1780, reflecting a daily decline of 3.26%. 　　As for the future market, the weak supply and demand situation in China’s methanol market is likely to persist. The competition between manufacturing companies regarding maintenance activities and those carried out by new downstream users will continue, and amid conflicting information, demand will remain the key factor determining prices.