Wheat harvest is coming to an end – how much longer can home-refined diesel remain popular?

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Since April, the prices of diesel produced locally in Shandong have risen sharply; within two months, the wholesale price of diesel increased by 14%, while the price of gasoline rose by only 3%. As a result, the price gap between gasoline and diesel narrowed from 1,100 yuan per ton to 650 yuan per ton. Will this upward trend in local diesel prices continue in the future? 　　Recently, the price of domestically produced diesel has risen sharply. The main reasons for this increase are, in addition to the sharp rise in international oil prices, the significant demand for diesel driven by spring plowing and summer sowing activities. 　　China’s main wheat-producing regions include Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hubei, Jiangsu, Sichuan, and other areas. The wheat harvesting in the southern provinces and cities began in May, while it started gradually in the north at the end of May and the beginning of June. Throughout the wheat harvesting season, it is estimated that 303,000 combine harvesters and 440,000 corn seeders will be used, which will exert a strong short-term demand boost on diesel. 　　In addition to the refineries owned by the three major oil companies in the surrounding area, local refineries in Shandong are one of the main sources of oil for agricultural use. Local refineries in Shandong produce nearly 2 million tons of diesel per month in regions such as Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, and Sichuan, accounting for 65% of the total diesel production in the area. 　　Since May, downstream end-users have stocked up in advance, driving strong trading activity in the domestic diesel market, while refinery diesel inventories have remained at a low level of 15%-20%. Given the upward fluctuations in international oil prices and the successive increases by the National Development and Reform Commission in the maximum retail prices for domestic refined oil products, manufacturers are in a positive mood, which encourages local refineries to raise prices repeatedly. 　　However, with the rise in international oil prices coming to a halt and domestic demand for diesel declining, how much longer can the domestic diesel market remain prosperous? 　　It is reported that Henan, as the largest wheat-producing region in the country, accounts for about a quarter of the nation’s total wheat production; at present, 90% of the wheat harvesting has been completed in Henan and Hebei ； Shandong is the second-largest wheat-producing region in the country. The completion rate of wheat harvesting in provinces such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shanxi, and Shaanxi has also exceeded 50%, and it is expected that wheat harvesting in the north will come to an end by next weekend. 　　In the future, the demand for oils used in agricultural machinery will drop to rock bottom ； Additionally, on June 1, the Bohai Sea and related waters north of 35 degrees north latitude entered the summer fishing ban period, which lasts for 3 months; as a result, demand for marine diesel decreases. Starting in the latter part of this month, following a cycle of periodic restocking, the diesel market will gradually enter a slack season for consumption. 　　For local refineries, on the one hand, terminal diesel consumption is declining, increasing the sales pressure for their diesel products ； On the other hand, due to rising raw material costs, the overall refining profits of local refineries have declined compared to earlier periods, which may lead to a reduction in their production enthusiasm. Local refineries will carry out routine maintenance work in June, July, and August.