Thread Content
On June 13, Bloomberg New Energy Finance released the “2016 New Energy Outlook”. Research reports indicate that global investment in power generation will increase by 11.4 trillion dollars over the next 25 years; by 2040, electric vehicles will drive an 8% rise in total electricity demand. Although coal and natural gas prices are likely to remain low, this will not prevent a fundamental transformation of the world’s power systems in the coming decades – a shift toward renewable sources such as wind and solar energy, as well as technologies that help maintain system balance like batteries. Regarding energy development, the report presents forecasts in the following ten areas. Coal and natural gas prices will remain low. Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s projections suggest that coal and natural gas prices will fall by 33% and 30% respectively, indicating an oversupply of these fuels, which in turn will reduce the costs of power generation using coal or natural gas. The costs of wind and solar energy will drop significantly. By 2040, the levelized cost of electricity generated by onshore wind power and solar photovoltaic systems is expected to drop by 41% and 60% respectively. By 2020, these two technologies will become some of the cheapest ways to generate electricity, and by the 2030s they will be the cheapest methods of power generation in most parts of the world. Fossil fuel power generation will attract $2.1 trillion in investment. Investments in coal and gas power generation will continue, especially in emerging economies; approximately $1.2 trillion will be spent on building new coal-fired power plants, while another $892 billion will be used for new gas-fired power plants. Renewable energy will attract the most investment. The green energy sector is set to attract approximately $7.8 trillion in investments, of which $3.1 trillion will go into onshore and offshore wind power, $3.4 trillion into large-scale grid-connected, rooftop, and other small-scale solar power systems, and $911 billion into hydropower. Achieving the “2-degree Celsius target” requires more financial support. In addition to the $7.8 trillion in investments, the world still needs to invest $5.3 trillion in zero-emission power sources by 2040 in order to prevent carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere from exceeding the **\"safe\" limit of 450ppm set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The growth of the electric vehicle market will further drive up electricity demand. By 2040, electric vehicles will increase global electricity demand by 2,701 terawatt-hours, or 8%. Correspondingly, BNEF predicts that electric vehicles will account for 35% of new global light vehicle sales, amounting to 41 million units – 90 times the number from 2015. The widespread use of batteries will optimize the utilization of small-scale photovoltaic systems. The rise of electric vehicles will further reduce battery costs, helping to bring the installed capacity of distributed energy storage batteries to 759 gigawatt-hours by 2040. Such batteries are primarily used to store electricity generated by small solar power systems, which is then released as needed; currently, their installed capacity is only 1.4 gigawatt-hours. The trend of coal-fired power generation in China will be further reduced based on previous projections. China’s economic transformation and shift toward renewable energy mean that coal-based power generation in China will be 1,000 terawatt-hours, or 21%, lower in 10 years than BNEF’s prediction last year. India will be key to the future global carbon emission trends. From 2016 to 2040, India’s electricity demand is expected to increase by a factor of 3.8. Despite planning to invest $611 billion in renewable energy and $115 billion in nuclear energy over the next 24 years, India will continue to rely heavily on coal-fired power plants to meet its growing electricity demand. This will result in tripling of India’s annual carbon emissions from the power sector by 2040. Renewable energy will dominate in Europe and surpass natural gas in the United States. By 2040, 70% of Europe’s electricity will come from wind, solar, hydroelectric, and other renewable energy sources, compared to just 32% in 2015. The share of renewable energy in electricity generation in the United States will rise from 14% in 2015 to 44% by 2040, while the proportion of electricity generated from gas will fall from 33% to 31% during the same period.