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Multiple positive factors support further increases in PVC prices. October 11, 2016 (from China Chemical Products Network) I. Market overview On October 10, the November futures price of U.S. WTI crude oil rose by 1.54% to $51.35 per barrel. December futures for Brent crude rose 1.21 to $53.14 per barrel. Today, the domestic PVC market remained in an upward trend, with futures prices continuing to rise; there was a strong atmosphere of speculation driving up prices ； On the manufacturer’s side, although there is no surge in shipments as before the holiday period, the low inventory pressure means they are firm in their pricing stance, raising prices slightly to encourage downstream buyers to place orders. The market is expected to remain upward tomorrow. II. Upstream raw materials: On October 10, prices of ethylene in Asia remained stable, with CFR Northeast Asia ranging from $1,089.5 to $1,091.5 per ton, and CFR Southeast Asia ranging from $1,039.5 to $1,041.5 per ton. Calcium carbide: After entering October, the production of calcium carbide increased slightly compared to the previous period, and transportation also began to recover. The flow of calcium carbide supplies was relatively normal, with price levels remaining stable in most areas. Local calcium carbide ex-factory prices: 2450–2550 in Wuhai and Ordos areas of Inner Mongolia ； 2400-2500 in the Shizuishan area of Ningxia ； Zhongwei region 2500-2550 ； Shaanxi region 2450-2520 ； Gansu region: 2500-2600. III. Industry updates: PVC manufacturers using the electrocalcium process are holding prices when selling their products. Type 5 ordinary calcium carbide material: the mainstream price at manufacturers in the surrounding areas of Inner Mongolia is 6,300–6,400 yuan per ton ； The mainstream acceptance price in Shandong region is 6,500–6,600 yuan per ton at the factory exit ； The mainstream ex-factory price in Hebei region is around 6,450 yuan per ton on credit ； In the Shanxi region, the standard ex-factory price is 6,600–6,750 yuan per ton, payable upon acceptance. Overall, domestic PVC manufacturers using the ethylene process are currently mostly operating at a stable level. Currently, in the North China region, Qilu Petrochemical, Tianjin Dagu, and LG Dagu offer prices of 7100–7200 yuan per ton at the factory gate; in the East China region, the delivery price is also 7100–7200 yuan per ton. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan has quoted a price of 890 US dollars per ton CFR the main ports in China for October. IV. Market Trends: Domestic PVC market price quotes. Unit: Yuan/ton. Product type, East China price changes, South China price changes, North China price changes, Northwest China price changes. Calcium carbide material SG-5: 50–7150 +50; 7150–7260 +50; 6750–685 +100; 6350–6450 +50. Ethylene-based material: 10,000; 73,000–74,000 +50; 73,500–74,500 +50; 70,000–71,500 +50; --. For ordinary Type 5 calcium carbide material in East China, the prevailing price is 6,930–6,990 yuan/ton. Zhongtai and Beiyuan charge 6,980 yuan/ton, Junzheng charges 6,920 yuan/ton, Hubei Yihua charges 6,900 yuan/ton, Yusheng charges 6,950 yuan/ton, Jinyuyuan charges 6,970 yuan/ton, Tianchen and Tianneng charge 7,030 yuan/ton, while Tianhu Type 3 costs 7,120 yuan/ton ； Qilu material S1000 is priced at 7,050 yuan per ton ex-warehouse, while S700 is priced at 7,200 yuan per ton. In the North China PVC market, at Qilu Chemical Industry City, the price of Qilu S700 is 7,200 yuan per ton, while the price of S1000 is 7,150 yuan per ton, with delivery available upon pickup. Calcium carbide is delivered at around 6,530–6,570 yuan per ton. It is delivered in the Linyi area at around 6,720 yuan per ton. In Hebei, it can be picked up at around 6,630 yuan per ton. Pickup from warehouse in Tianjin area at around 6,670 yuan per ton. The mainstream price for Type 5 calcium carbide process PVC in the South China market is 7,000–7,050 yuan per ton ； Ordos Type 8: 7,120 yuan/ton; Type 5: price fixed ； Junzheng: 7,050 yuan per ton ； China-Thailand: 7,050 yuan/ton ； Hengtong 1000 is priced at 7,020 yuan per ton ； Tianneng: 7,020 yuan per ton, Yili: 7,020 yuan per ton, Dongxing: 7,000 yuan per ton ； Mahatma 7,050 yuan/ton ； Dongfang Hope and Xinfafa: 7,050 yuan/ton ； Dagu 1000 is priced at 7,300 yuan per ton, while 700/800 is priced at 7,250 yuan per ton ； 1300 is quoted at 7,330 yuan per ton. V. Transaction Review: Today, the PVC market on the Plastics Exchange showed an upward trend with prices in most regions closing on an upward note ； During the session, traders were active in trading, engaging in vigorous transactions, and the volume of deals continued to increase, with the overall trading situation on the market showing further improvement. By the close, the South China settlement price for October was 7,042 yuan, up 112 yuan ； The settlement price in East China is 6,970 yuan, up by 100 yuan ； The settlement price in North China is 6,808 yuan, up by 298 yuan ； The settlement price for the ethylene method is 7,150 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan. Fundamentals: Today, the domestic PVC market continued to show an upward trend, with futures prices rising as well; there was a strong atmosphere of speculation driving prices up ； On the manufacturer’s side, although there is no surge in shipments as before the holiday period, the low inventory pressure means they are firm in their pricing stance, raising prices slightly to encourage downstream buyers to place orders. The market is expected to remain upward-trending tomorrow as well. VI. Market outlook: The domestic PVC market is set to see its first significant rise after the holiday, with some prices increasing by more than 100 yuan per ton. Futures prices continued to rise, but the gap with spot prices remained significant. Bullish forces kept pushing prices upward, providing mutual support with the spot market. In terms of transportation, highway freight rates remain high after the holiday. Moreover, a railway document from Xinjiang states that the increase in railway freight rates will remain in effect until October 31; this means that until the end of the month, driven by these rising freight costs as well as factors such as insufficient supply, market prices are unlikely to see any significant drop. It is expected that domestic PVC market prices will see a slight increase again tomorrow