Analysis of domestic soda ash market trends in 2012

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Analysis of domestic soda ash market trends in 2012 January 02, 2013 14:57:05 Business News (Kan Baoxia) The domestic soda ash market showed a downward trend in 2012. According to data monitored by Business News, the mainstream average price of light soda ash at the beginning of the year was 1,726 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the mainstream average price was 1,316 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.78%. As can be seen from the chart above, the price of light pure products is in a state of unilateral decline. Although there has been a slight correction during this period, it is always difficult to reverse the downward trend. Domestic heavy soda ash also showed a downward trend throughout the year. The mainstream average price at the beginning of the year was 1,875 yuan/ton, and the mainstream average price at the end of the year was 1,355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.73%. 　　In 2012, the domestic soda ash market showed a downward trend throughout the year. This trend continued for a year. Analyze the reasons.: 1. The domestic soda ash market has overcapacity. At present, my country’s total annual soda ash production capacity is as high as 28 million tons, and there are more than 100 large-scale enterprises with a production capacity of more than 300,000 tons. China's soda ash output from January to November 2012 was 21.8461 million tons. 2. Domestic capacity expansion is rampant, especially in central Jiangsu and Qinghai, using local abundant resources to expand production capacity. For example, Jiangsu Jingshen Salt Chemical Co., Ltd. rushed to the second phase of 600,000 tons after the first phase of 300,000 tons of production, and Jiangsu Huaerrun Company completed and put into operation 600,000 tons. 3. Affected by overcapacity, the market for homogeneous products is crowded, causing low-price competition. 4. Downstream demand has dropped sharply. The main downstream sources of soda ash are glass, printing and dyeing, phosphates, small chemicals, etc. since * * In the past year since the implementation of the real estate control policy, the real estate industry has rapidly cooled down, and new construction projects have dropped significantly. This has directly led to a sharp drop in the real estate industry's demand for glass. At the same time, the domestic printing and dyeing industry has encountered a downturn, resulting in a substantial reduction in downstream demand for the soda ash industry. 5. In 2012, the total domestic soda ash export volume was 157,517 tons, and the total import volume was 3,092 tons. 　　The domestic soda ash industry has suffered long-term losses, and the pressure on production and operation has increased. The current operating rate of the soda ash industry remains at about 70%, and most companies are producing at low load. Therefore, Kan Baoxia, a soda ash analyst at the Business Society Chemical Branch, believes that the soda ash market price will still fluctuate around the current 1,300 yuan/ton in the first quarter of 2013. With the adjustment of the product structure, it is expected to improve in the second quarter.