Thread Content
The Potassium Salts and Fertilizers Branch of the China Inorganic Salt Industry Association predicts that prices of potassium fertilizers will ** In the first half of this year, the supply of potassium fertilizers in China has fallen short of demand, leading to astonishing price increases; the highest price for potassium chloride reached over 4,200 yuan per ton, marking a 10-year high. “Looking ahead, the overall supply of potash fertilizer will remain tight in the second half of the year, and prices will stay high due to influences from the international market. However, excessively high prices will suppress demand growth; it is expected that the market will ** in the second half of the year. In the future, focus should be placed on potassium fertilizer imports and the progress of large-scale contracts. ”At the Forum on the Development of the Fertilizer Industry and Trade Opportunities, held as part of the 2021 National Petroleum and Chemical Industry Economic and Trade Development Conference recently, Zhou Yue, Executive Deputy Secretary-General of the Potassium Salts and Potassium Fertilizers Branch of the China Inorganic Salt Industry Association, provided the above analysis regarding the future trend of potassium fertilizers. Potash fertilizer is currently the only type of fertilizer in the country that cannot be produced domestically, and its price fluctuations are closely tied to international market conditions. According to Zhou Yue, in May last year, the price of potash fertilizer on the international market was at its second-lowest level in nearly 10 years, after which it began to rise gradually. Especially since February this year, driven by factors such as the global economic recovery, soaring food prices, and extremely tight supply, the international potash fertilizer market has seen a sharp rise in prices. By the end of July, the price of large-grained potash fertilizer arriving in Brazil soared to 650 dollars per ton, providing some support for the domestic market. During the same period, amid a decline in domestic supply and inventory levels at historic lows, domestic potassium chloride prices reached over 4,200 yuan per ton, hitting a 10-year high. “The long-term surplus of potassium fertilizer globally has reversed, so this year the global potassium fertilizer market will continue to experience a supply deficit and high prices. ”Zhou Yue analyzed. From a global supply perspective, Canada’s largest company, Nutrien, plans to increase its actual production by 500,000 tons this year, with sales volume rising from 13.3 million tons to 13.8 million tons. Meisheng Company is expected to experience a production reduction of 1 million tons due to the premature closure of the Esterhazy mine shaft in Saskatchewan, Canada, as a result of water intrusion. However, they said that if the old mines’ inventory can be utilized this year, production will be increased by 500,000 tons as much as possible. Therefore, from a global supply perspective, the total supply of potash this year is not expected to decrease significantly or will remain roughly the same as last year; the biggest variable will be the production level of Belarusian company BPC. Due to the economic sanctions imposed by the EU on Belarus, the volume of products whose exports are restricted accounts for 15% to 20% of its total exports. “If BPC’s potassium fertilizer exports are severely restricted, it will have a certain impact on the supply in the Chinese market. ”Zhou Yue emphasized. From the demand perspective, overall demand for potash fertilizers is on the rise. According to the International Fertilizer Association, demand for potash fertilizer is expected to increase by around 1.7% this year. As Brazil has increased its soybean planting area this year, global food crop cultivation has also expanded, which is likely to drive up demand for potash fertilizer; it is expected that the global supply and demand for potash fertilizer will remain tight in the short term. “Affected by the international market, domestic potash fertilizer prices are expected to remain at relatively high levels in the future. ”Zhou Yue said. It is worth noting that currently, the price of potassium fertilizers is high, which will have a significant impact on farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain, and it is also very detrimental to ensuring **food security. Therefore, industry insiders are calling for market prices to return to a reasonable and normal level as soon as possible. To this end, the Potassium Salts and Fertilizers Branch of the China Inorganic Salt Industry Association has put forward suggestions for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices: first, **implement macro-control by releasing some of the national reserves to stabilize prices ； Strengthen monitoring of maritime imports and increase sources for border trade. Second, domestic enterprises should formulate production plans for next year, increase their operational rates as much as possible, and ensure domestic output. Third, accelerate the development of overseas projects to ensure that the potash products produced by China’s overseas potash projects are transported back to the domestic market. Fourth, when domestic potash fertilizer prices are abnormally low, it is necessary to restore, to a certain extent, the preferential policies for potash fertilizer producers and ensure adequate railway transportation supplies. Fifth, at an appropriate time when international market prices are low, increase the stock of potash fertilizers in **commercial fertilizer reserves, so as to leverage the market-regulating role of these potash fertilizer reserves.