What are the main difficulties currently facing the soda ash industry? Is it the market, raw material prices, or other reasons?

Reply 1# machun* ao The main problems that the soda ash industry currently needs to solve are:: 1. Raw materials, costs and power consumption ； 2. The quality of soda ash products, especially the proportion of low-salt and high-quality heavy ash, increasing product varieties 3. Especially the outlet problem of ammonium chloride 4. The automation level of the soda ash industry, etc. These are the current problems in the soda ash industry.

Overcapacity in the soda ash industry is getting worse http://www.haicent.com/List.asp?ID=6043 time: 2010-5-12 0:01:27 Core Tips: Overcapacity in the soda ash industry is getting worse... Interview with Wang Xiling, vice president and secretary-general of the China Soda Ash Industry Association. In 2009, under the dual pressure of the financial crisis and overcapacity, my country's soda ash industry suffered serious losses - large enterprises suffered losses of hundreds of millions of yuan, medium-sized enterprises suffered losses of tens of millions of yuan, and small businesses also suffered losses of more than one million yuan. With the arrival of the new year, the negative impact of the financial crisis on my country's soda ash industry is gradually receding, but the problem of overcapacity in the entire industry is still getting worse. Therefore, Wang Xiling, vice president and secretary-general of the China Soda Ash Industry Association, said in an interview with reporters that strictly controlling production capacity and maintaining market stability are the primary tasks facing the soda ash industry this year. 　　According to Wang Xiling, in 2009, my country's soda ash production capacity has reached 24 million tons, and the output is expected to exceed 19 million tons. The domestic demand for soda ash is expected to not exceed 17 million tons, and the export volume is more than 2 million tons. There are 5 million tons of idle production capacity throughout the year. “Even if there is no financial crisis, the overcapacity problem in the soda ash industry will be completely exposed in 2009. ”Wang Xiling said that the domestic soda ash industry will add nearly 2 million tons of new production capacity in 2010, and the most optimistic estimate of demand is around 18 million tons, and export volume will also be around 2 million tons. The overcapacity situation in the soda ash industry will further intensify. 　　Wang Xiling analyzed that soda ash exports will be further restricted this year, and exports are expected to decrease by about 300,000 tons. He told reporters that on October 6, 2009, the Indian Ministry of Finance issued a final announcement and decided to impose a 20% special safeguard tax on soda ash originating in China. The tax period is from April 20, 2009 to April 19, 2010. India will also apply for an extension after this round of special safeguard measures expires, which will lead to a significant reduction in my country's soda ash exports to India this year. A trona plant in Türkiye with an annual output of one million tons has also been put into operation. Because it is very close to the Middle East, it poses a great threat to China's soda ash exports to the Middle East. As the world's largest soda ash exporter, after the financial crisis, the United States began to compete comprehensively with China, which ranks second in soda ash exports. The United States has adopted price reduction measures to expand market share, which will also have a greater impact on my country's soda ash exports this year. In addition, the European Solvay Company has also joined the battle for the Asian market and began exporting soda ash to Asia on a large scale in 2009. 　　Wang Xiling said that this year with the comprehensive recovery of the national economy and the continued growth of GDP, domestic soda ash consumption will increase compared with 2009, and the average sales price will also be higher than that in 2009. “If the total amount can be properly controlled, the industry-wide loss situation will be significantly improved. ； And if controls are improper, there is a high possibility that some companies will continue to suffer losses. ” 　　To this end, Wang Xiling proposed: “The working idea of ​​the soda ash industry this year is to control the total volume, reduce losses, and try to maximize production capacity to about 80% to ensure the basic balance of market supply and demand. This requires the support and cooperation of large enterprises in the industry. The association hopes that large-scale backbone enterprises, enterprises with good geographical locations (close to energy and raw material production areas and convenient transportation), and three types of enterprises with high equipment, technology, and management levels can consciously control production capacity, maintain no losses and make a small amount of profit, and stabilize prices at the same time, so as to facilitate the survival of the fittest in the industry. ” 　　According to Wang Xiling, the Soda Ash Industry Entry Conditions (Draft for Comments) drafted by the Soda Ash Association plans to raise standards for new soda ash projects and existing soda ash companies from aspects such as production layout, project scale, energy conservation and emission reduction, and product quality to curb overcapacity and continued expansion in the soda ash industry. At present, the Soda Ash Association is further revising and improving the "Soda Ash Industry Access Conditions" based on opinions collected from all over the country.

Mainly due to overcapacity. Why is there excess capacity? It is profit. Since the real estate industry has been booming for 10 years, it has also created the prosperity of the soda ash market. Therefore, major companies have expanded their production. Ruhai Chemical's production capacity has reached 2.8 million tons. ； Furthermore, downstream companies have also stepped up. For example, major glass companies have added more than 3 million tons of new production capacity in Qinghai, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places. ； .......Sigh, I won’t go into details. There are always more solutions than difficulties. Find ways to reduce costs, survive the fittest, and eliminate high-energy-consuming and high-cost enterprises.

Especially on the issue of the outlet of ammonium chloride, I am doing this and have a deep understanding of it. It cannot be sold at all. Disaster. Moreover, the current sales of soda ash are not very good. Everyone knows about real estate...the downstream is not very full...what can the upstream do?

The soda ash market is very problematic. The market is not good. The price is not high. The level of automation is low. The low level of technology affects some practitioners. This industry is hard work and the wages are not high. This industry is not promising.

The future development will be a very cruel survival of the fittest. Those with low resource costs will be easier to survive. However, the real development is to develop other downstream products and digest soda ash and ammonium chloride into real silver.

The market has its own choice results, so there is no need to worry unfounded! The market may be at a trough now, but the market will eventually get out of the trough, and soda ash plants have a construction cycle and must be built before the market gets out of the trough. What's more, you may be able to think of a new way to make glass now - solar energy. Once this market really starts, it will far exceed the construction market usage.

The oversupply situation in the soda ash industry will not change in the next few years, so cost control* key. Chaotic management in some large state-owned enterprises is one of the fundamental reasons why costs remain high.

This post was last edited by yanshan86 on 2010-6-14 11:17 First of all, overcapacity； Next is the increase in prices of energy and raw materials. ； Third, the export of soda ash is restricted ； Finally, the market for ammonium chloride has narrowed. ”Di Tongli said, “It is generally estimated that the domestic soda ash market situation will be better than last year, but it will continue to be in a situation of oversupply and there are still many uncertain factors. Therefore, we cannot be overly optimistic about this year’s situation. The current central government’s regulation of the real estate industry will definitely affect the demand for soda ash, because an important product downstream of soda ash is flat glass, which accounts for about 30% of soda ash demand. Once there is any disturbance in the real estate market, it will inevitably affect the sales of flat glass, which will also have a negative impact on the demand for soda ash. Zhu Fang, an expert from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, said that it is difficult to judge whether the soda ash market will pick up this year. But what is certain is that since the growth rate of market demand is lower than production capacity, the price increase of downstream products is limited. Considering that basic energy, labor and other prices will put pressure on costs, the profits of salt chemicals represented by soda ash will be at the lowest level in recent years, or even lose money, and the return on investment will not be very high. Therefore, he suggested that new materials and specialized chemical products with higher downstream income should be the investment direction. Qunyi Securities analyst Li Mingxia also pointed out that the downstream glass industry is expected to maintain a high operating rate in the second quarter, with good market demand for soda ash, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly. However, affected by the new real estate policy in the second half of the year, the operating rate may decline, which will cause the growth rate of upstream basic raw material demand to slow down, and there will be limited room for subsequent price increases. Overcapacity has become a huge burden. Among the unfavorable factors listed by Di Tongli, overcapacity was placed first. Obviously, one of the main culprits responsible for the soda ash industry's passive situation since last year is overcapacity. “In recent years, blind investment and repeated construction of soda ash projects have been serious in various places, which has further intensified the overcapacity of low-end products and increased the supply of downstream products too quickly. ”Zhu Fang, an expert from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, told this reporter. Data show that in 2008 alone, there were 11 new or expanded soda ash projects, with a total new production capacity of 4.35 million tons. At the same time, there are still two to three million tons of soda ash projects that have started construction or are planned to be put into production in 2009 and 2010. In fact, * * Since 2005, relevant departments have successively introduced plans to control the expansion of soda ash production capacity. At the end of 2005, * * * The "Interim Regulations on Promoting Industrial Structural Adjustment" were announced, which stipulates that ammonia-alkali units below 1 million tons and combined alkali units below 300,000 tons/year are restricted for development. In early 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Construction Management of the Soda Ash Industry to Promote the Healthy Development of the Industry", requiring relevant subordinate departments to strictly control the new soda ash production capacity. However, these plans failed to curb the soda ash industry expansion frenzy. If in the past, relying on large amounts of exports could solve part of the overcapacity problem, then with the intensification of international competition after the financial crisis, exports are no longer a panacea to save the overcapacity problem in the soda ash industry. “American trona has significant cost, quality and service advantages over my country's soda ash. Even in the Southeast Asian market, the main export area of ​​my country's two soda ash, its competitiveness is not weaker than that of China. ”Zhu Fang said. According to him, after the outbreak of the financial crisis, the United States, the world's largest soda ash exporter, began to compete comprehensively with China, the world's second largest soda ash exporter, and expanded its market share through price cuts. The American ANSAC Company, the world's largest soda ash export consortium, has been protesting against my country's expansion of exports and squeezing its traditional market and warning of dumping in China. In addition, the European Solvay Company has also joined the battle for the Asian market and began exporting soda ash to Asia on a large scale in 2009. “What's more, the RMB is likely to appreciate in the future, which will have a greater impact on the industrial chain. ”Zhu Fang said. http://www.shenguang.com/news/2010-05/907871347232.html