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Reduced resources, potential increase in exports, and upward pressure from downstream sectors: Since late March, the domestic ammonium sulfate market has stopped falling after 20 days of decline and consolidation, and has resumed its upward trend. As of April 9, the mainstream domestic transaction price ranged from 900 to 970 yuan per ton (the same unit is used hereafter); premium prices even exceeded 1,000 yuan. There was an increase of over 9% in just half a month, with some areas reaching their annual highs (at the beginning of March), and there are signs of further price increases. “Since the beginning of this year, the domestic ammonium sulfate market has experienced a period of upward momentum that lasted for over two months, reaching a peak at the beginning of March with an increase of more than 15%. However, the market subsequently entered a period of decline and adjustment, which once led industry experts to be pessimistic about future trends. However, after a short-term adjustment within the month, the market quickly stopped falling and rebounded, resuming its upward trend. The main reasons for this were a series of positive factors such as declining production expectations, potential growth in exports, and support from downstream markets; therefore, it is possible that ammonium sulfate prices could reach new highs again. ”Analysed Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator. Production expectations are declining. According to data from Longzhong Information, as of April 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic coking enterprises was 72.68%, with little change compared to the previous month. However, due to periodic maintenance at some coking plants, there is an expectation of a decline in production. Examples include the shutdown of the Lubaoyu plant in Shanxi, the shutdown for maintenance of Phase 1 in Luxi, the shutdown for maintenance of Phase 1 at Cangzhou Xuyang; recently, there has been a gradual shutdown for maintenance at Dongming Xuyang, as well as the shutdown for maintenance of the Nanjing Dongfang plant. Coupled with the maintenance shutdowns of caprolactam plants in the domestic market, the overall operating rate of caprolactam plants by early April was 87.19%, down 4.47% from late March. “In China, ammonium sulfate mainly comes as a by-product of industries such as coking, caprolactam production, and flue gas desulfurization in power plants. The expected decline in production will support overall domestic prices. Furthermore, many traders took profits during the adjustments in the ammonium sulfate market in March, reducing their inventories to low levels or even clearing them out, which led to a significant decrease in the supply available for circulation in the market. This situation contributed positively to the recovery in the market conditions in April. ”Shao Huiwen said. Potential export growth: A sales manager at a fertilizer company in Shandong said that according to relevant statistics, 2.57 million tons of ammonium sulfate were exported from January to February this year, representing a year-on-year increase of around 39%. As demand for ammonium sulfate in international markets rises, the focus in the second quarter will likely be on preparing for exports. It is expected that preparations for shipments to regions such as Latin America will continue at an accelerated pace this year, and the order volume of ammonium sulfate in the second quarter is likely to increase compared to the first quarter. Furthermore, demand for ammonium sulfate in the international market continues to grow, with strong demand in regions such as North-West Europe, Mexico, and Turkey. This provides a broad market for China’s ammonium sulfate exports, and the potential for further export growth will continue to drive development in this sector. Additionally, after the New Year, urea prices stabilized and recovered, rising from their lowest level of 1,500 yuan during the year to over 1,900 yuan by April, with an increase of more than 26% – providing strong support for the ammonium sulfate market. Support from downstream demand According to Cui Huajie, the sales manager at Henan Ruiyuan New Energy, compound fertilizers, as the main downstream products of ammonium sulfate, play a significant role in determining the trends in the ammonium sulfate market. Data shows that the overall operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer manufacturers increased from 26% at the beginning of February to over 54% by the end of March. Moreover, market prices have been rising continuously, with an increase of 13% from mid-February to mid-March. The significant growth in demand from downstream industries has played a key role in driving the continuous recovery of the ammonium sulfate market. Meanwhile, recent news regarding the lifting of restrictions on rare earths in the southern region has also attracted significant attention within the industry, bringing positive impacts to the market. According to industry insiders, the additional tariffs imposed by the United States could increase the pressure for the RMB to depreciate, which in turn would further boost exports. As a major exporter of ammonium sulfate, our country will surely see this change reflected in its exports. The increased enthusiasm of domestic ammonium sulfate exporters in placing inquiries compared to before also indicates that they are taking precautions. Market experts say that, based on current trading conditions, following the recent rebound in prices, the supply and demand in the ammonium sulfate market have gradually reached equilibrium, leaving little room for further price increases. Additionally, it is currently the period when fertilizer is used for rice cultivation in the south as well as for high-nitrogen fertilizers in compound fertilizers, while consumption in the northern regions has leveled off, leading to a slight decline in the operating rates of compound fertilizer manufacturers. Therefore, whether the ammonium sulfate market can see a significant rise still depends on export orders and demand in the rare earth sector. It is expected that in the near term the market will focus on consolidating the gains from previous rebounds, with room for further price increases in the lower price range.