Decarbonization of the aviation industry focuses on SAF: Surging demand drives technological breakthroughs

With such strong market demand, China’s SAF production capacity has become a focus of attention in the industry. According to Li Mingfeng, oil hydrogenation is currently the only SAF technology that has been implemented on a large scale. Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical’s 100,000-ton-per-year facility uses this technology, and the biojet fuel produced there has not only received Asia’s first RSB sustainability certification but has also passed Airbus’ cross-ocean validation. However, its raw materials rely on food waste oil and animal and plant fats; China’s annual supply amounts to only tens of millions of tons, which is insufficient to support long-term growth. Xia Zuxi, director of the Civil Aviation Fuel and Chemicals Airworthiness Certification Center in China, pointed out that the resulting dilemma is that \"used cooking oil is sold at exorbitant prices, while aviation fuel is sold at rock-bottom prices.\" To overcome resource constraints, the industry is accelerating its transition to non-grain raw materials, thereby developing a technical framework that combines short-, medium-, and long-term approaches along with multiple parallel pathways. The reporter learned from the scene that the fixed-bed FTO synthesis technology developed by Sinopec achieves a kerosene yield of 68%–75%, and the development of a production capacity of 700,000 tons per year has been completed ； In addition, SAF produced from ethanol has been developed, with a carbon transfer efficiency of 60%; the freezing point of the product is below -60°C, fully meeting the specifications for aviation fuel. Beijing Shougang Langze Technology Co., Ltd. uses industrial waste gases (containing CO and CO2) for the biological fermentation of ethanol, with an annual production capacity of 210,000 tons. Its products have obtained RSB/ISCC certification, serving as an example for the diversification of raw materials. At the same time, relevant innovative technologies are also emerging in various areas. Cao Peng, Technical Licensing Manager for Topsoe in China, mentioned that the company plans to put into operation eSAF (electronic fuel) technology based on used cooking oil by 2027, and to enhance carbon utilization by leveraging solid oxide electrolyzer technology ； Guo Liang, Business Development Manager at ExxonMobil (China) Investment Co., Ltd., said that its BIDW series of catalysts can increase the yield of biojet fuel, bringing significant benefits to companies; this technology is already in use commercially in Europe and the United States. The technical approach for producing aviation fuel from non-grain feedstocks is emerging at an accelerated pace.

Policies, regulations, and certification systems: Key drivers for the implementation of the SAF industry. It is policies, regulations, and certification systems that serve as the \"catalyst\" to move SAF from a technically feasible concept to actual commercial application. “It is important to know who sets the rules of the game. ”Guo Jie, director of the China International Center for Sustainable Transport Innovation and Knowledge, pointed out that international rules are forcing domestic industries to transform through rigid constraints. The ICAO CORSIA mechanism requires mandatory controls on aviation carbon emissions starting in 2027 ； The EU’s ReFuelEU law explicitly sets a target of 6% SAF blending ratio by 2030, rising to 65% by 2050. “These rules force the industrial chain to accelerate its transformation, with the EU’s unilateral policies shaping the rules that govern the global market. Taking the green methanol refueling pilot at Shanghai Port as an example, although it has been launched, the raw materials still rely on imports. After the agreement was signed, there was a shortage of green methanol, so it had to be purchased from Europe and transported via South Korea to the Port of Shanghai. This reveals the urgency of aligning domestic industries with international rules. ”Guo Jie emphasized. Today, the domestic policy framework is also being continuously improved amid the drive for industrial development; standard-setting and pilot projects are advancing in tandem to remove obstacles to the large-scale use of SAF.

Guo Jie said that the Civil Aviation Administration has initiated the development of national standards for sustainable aviation fuel, with completion planned for 2025. Xia Zuxi provided a detailed explanation of the three-step process for SAF airworthiness certification: verification at the component and material level, system-level compatibility testing, and flight test validation. \"To date, China has approved 4 companies; the total production capacity for SAF is 800,000 tons, with this figure expected to exceed 1.2 million tons by the end of the year.\" ” The international integration of certification systems is key to market access. Robert, Director of Business Development and Strategy for SCS Global Services in the Greater China region, explained that international certifications such as ISCC and RSB cover various aspects of the entire supply chain, including the sustainability of raw materials and carbon emissions throughout the product’s life cycle. The “Book-claim” mechanism allows companies to declare their carbon reduction achievements without actually transporting the fuel, thereby providing flexibility in cross-border trade. Du Changlei, Director of Strategic Development at Beijing Shougang Langze Technology Co., Ltd., demonstrated this through practice: \"Our ethanol products have obtained RSB and ISCC certifications, which not only opens up access to international markets but also allows us to earn a carbon premium of several hundred yuan per ton.\" ”This confirms that certification is not only a threshold for market access but also a key competitive advantage for increasing product premiums. As one of the most effective approaches recognized in the industry for achieving carbon reduction, the sustainable low-carbon fuel market holds great potential; however, the high cost of its application remains one of the challenges that need to be addressed urgently. “The current cost of green hydrogen is 2 to 3 times that of traditional fuels, while the price of SAF is even higher. ”**Fu Guanyun, deputy director and associate researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that overcoming the \"green premium\" issue lies in policy coordination; it is necessary to rely on mechanisms such as carbon trading and subsidies for green electricity to transform the benefits of emission reductions into economic value. “The EU’s carbon price has reached 180 euros per ton, providing a strong incentive for companies to transform; China’s carbon market also needs to strengthen price signals. ”Fu Guanyun said so.

Opportunities and challenges intertwined: Pathways to breakthrough through collaboration across the SAF value chain. Despite the promising prospects for the SAF industry, it still faces various challenges such as fragmented raw material supply and high costs, thus there is an urgent need for collaboration across the entire value chain to overcome these issues. The scalability and sustainability of raw material supply are the primary bottlenecks. Sun Weishan said that relevant forecasts indicate that, driven by both government incentives and policy requirements, the demand for SAF in the United States, Asia, and Europe will surge from the current level of 400,000 tons per year to over 18 million tons per year. By 2050, the demand for SAF is expected to rise to over 100 million tons per year. “Given the current annual supply of used cooking oil in China, relying on traditional sources alone will make it difficult to meet the demand for 3.1 million tons of SAF by 2030. ”Li Mingfeng pointed out that it is necessary to tap the potential of China’s 3.7 billion tons of biomass resources each year, and to explore non-grain raw materials such as agricultural and forestry waste and CO2. “Raw materials account for over 60% of the production costs at SAF; the current capacity plan calls for more than 5 million tons of production, but whether the market can absorb this volume depends on whether its price is acceptable to consumers. ”Li Mingfeng said. Guo Jie added that if the price of SAF remains between 20,000 and 30,000 yuan per ton, airlines will face considerable pressure. Solving the problem of high costs requires the synergy of technology and policy. Li Mingfeng believes that it is possible to reduce raw material costs through a regional collection system, and he proposes a \"three-chain integration\" approach, which involves establishing a system for the collection, storage, and transportation of agricultural and forestry waste along the raw material chain ； In terms of the technology chain, integrating SAF production into existing refineries allows the use of refinery hydrogen and utility services to reduce investments by over 30% ； In the value chain, efforts should be made to incorporate the benefits of carbon emission reduction into market pricing. ”

“Raw materials account for over 60% of the production costs at SAF; the current capacity plan calls for more than 5 million tons of production, but whether the market can absorb this volume depends on whether its price is acceptable to consumers. ”Li Mingfeng said. Guo Jie added that if the price of SAF remains between 20,000 and 30,000 yuan per ton, airlines will face considerable pressure. Solving the problem of high costs requires the synergy of technology and policy. Li Mingfeng believes that it is possible to reduce raw material costs through a regional collection system, and he proposes a \"three-chain integration\" approach, which involves establishing a system for the collection, storage, and transportation of agricultural and forestry waste along the raw material chain ； In terms of the technology chain, integrating SAF production into existing refineries allows the use of refinery hydrogen and utility services to reduce investments by over 30% ； In the value chain, efforts should be made to incorporate the benefits of carbon emission reduction into market pricing. ” Gan Shaowei, director of the Wuhan Standards Research Institute of China Classification Society, suggested drawing on the experience gained in the development of green ship fuels, and \"establishing an SAF refueling network based on the port clusters in the Bohai Sea region and the Yangtze River Delta to create a closed loop of ‘production–transport–refueling’, thereby reducing logistics costs.\" ”It is understood that the ports in Liaoning, Tianjin, and Qingdao have begun relevant construction work. Intensifying international competition is another major challenge. Guo Jie pointed out that the EU influences global market rules through unilateral policies. As the second-largest country in air transportation, China needs to accelerate the development of its own standard systems to provide institutional support for industrial growth and avoid having to \"follow passively\". Pang Guanglian, member of the Party Committee Standing Committee of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, as well as chairman and secretary-general of the Foreign Investment Committee, emphasized in his summary: “The development of SAF is shifting from ‘individual breakthroughs’ to ‘collective ecosystem construction’, requiring collaboration among the government, enterprises, and research institutions to establish a complete chain that encompasses ‘raw materials – technology – policies – market’. ” Pang Guanglian took Panjin as an example: “This traditional petrochemical city is developing industries related to hydrogen energy, SAF, and green ship fuels, which is a vivid example of energy transition.” ” From technological exploration to industrial implementation, the development of sustainable low-carbon fuels has brought SAF to a unique period marked by both opportunities and challenges. In the future, only by establishing an industrial ecosystem characterized by technological diversity, coordinated policies, and global participation can it truly become the driving force behind deep decarbonization in the aviation sector, contributing to the global energy transition.

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