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With the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical’s 260,000-ton per year acrylonitrile production facility in mid-August, the domestic acrylonitrile industry has once again seen a surge in new production capacity entering the market. The latest statistics show that in 2025, China is expected to see over 1.3 million tons of new acrylonitrile production capacity come online. Should these new projects be commissioned as planned, the industry’s total production capacity will exceed 5.7 million tons. This surge in production capacity resulting from the additional million-tonnage output has also raised concerns about an imbalance between supply and demand, with the industry potentially facing another round of significant adjustments. Further expansion of production capacity By 2025, China’s acrylonitrile industry will enter a new phase of concentrated capacity expansion. According to Jinchuang Data, in just the first half of this year, Yu Long Petrochemical’s 130,000-ton capacity facility, Quanzhou Petrochemical’s 260,000-ton capacity facility, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical’s 400,000-ton capacity facility came online one after another. With the addition of 260,000 tons of new production capacity from Jilin Petrochemical Company, the industry’s total production capacity has increased by nearly a quarter since the end of 2024. Industry experts believe that the acrylonitrile industry is entering its second period of concentrated expansion in nearly 5 years. The first capacity expansion period took place from 2020 to 2023, during which total capacity increased from 2.597 million tons to 4.399 million tons. According to Guanyan Tianxia’s data, the acrylonitrile industry plans to add 1.31 million tons of production capacity this year; if all of this capacity is put into use, the industry’s total production capacity will exceed 5.7 million tons. It is reported that the acrylonitrile production facilities of companies such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Ineos (Tianjin) are scheduled to come online one after another within this year, bringing the number of manufacturers in this industry from 16 to 20. Against this backdrop, the concentration ratio of industry production capacity among the top five companies is set to drop from 63.47% in 2024 to 55.91%, reaching its lowest level in nearly 5 years. The market generally believes that as more players enter the industry, the power dynamics within the acrylonitrile sector will become further dispersed. Demand is basically saturated. From the demand side, the three main downstream products of acrylonitrile are currently at a state of market saturation, which means their impact on the upstream raw materials is limited. Acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene copolymer (ABS) resin has always been the key driver of acrylonitrile consumption, accounting for 50% of its downstream consumption structure. In recent years, China’s ABS production capacity has grown rapidly, rising from 4.425 million tons in 2020 to 9.165 million tons in 2024, with an average annual compound growth rate of 19.97%. However, this did not lead to any improvement in the industry’s profitability. In 2024, the average profit of the ABS industry dropped to -253 yuan per ton, a decrease of 220.3% on a year-on-year basis. The annual production volume fell to 5.488 million tons, representing a 6.83% decline compared to the previous year. “From 2025 to 2026, the ABS industry will remain in a period of high capacity expansion, with 3.8 million tons of new production capacity set to come online, yet the industry’s vitality is clearly declining. ”The analysis team at Longzhong Information notes that the primary demand for ABS comes from household appliances, accounting for over 45% of total demand. Since household appliances are durable goods, and given the weak performance of the real estate market and consumer demand, the impact of increased demand from this sector on ABS production is limited. As a result, the ABS industry will remain in a state of \"high capacity and low output\" for the foreseeable future. The acrylic fiber sector also faces downward pressure on demand. Due to the poor performance of the weaving sector, which is part of the downstream industry in the fiber industry, the operating rate of weaving enterprises has dropped below 60% since 2025, with overseas orders decreasing by 30% on a year-on-year basis. As a result, fiber factories were forced to control production capacity through centralized maintenance efforts in order to balance market supply, which made it difficult for them to provide effective support for the demand for acrylonitrile from upstream sources. Regarding acrylamide, driven by the weak global economy, there is insufficient demand growth in traditional downstream application areas, resulting in low enthusiasm for market purchases. Although there are favorable policies in emerging fields such as environmental protection and water treatment, the demand in these areas has not yet reached a significant level, so they cannot currently fill the gap in demand from traditional application areas. Currently, the operating rates in the three main sectors—ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide—generally remain at low levels of 60%–70%, exerting limited upward pressure on acrylonitrile prices. Against the backdrop of new production capacity entering the market in 2025, the supply and demand issues in the acrylonitrile industry are likely to worsen further. Seizing development opportunities. In the face of these challenges, how can the acrylonitrile industry break through? Industry experts believe that with relevant policies providing strong support for the new materials industry, high-end downstream applications of acrylonitrile—such as carbon fiber and high-performance engineering plastics—will experience rapid growth. It is estimated that from 2025 to 2030, this will drive an average annual increase of 8%–12% in the demand for acrylonitrile. In the carbon fiber industry chain, the cost of precursor fibers accounts for a very high proportion – in 2024, this cost made up 58.71% of the total cost of carbon fiber. Acrylonitrile is the key raw material used in the production of carbon fiber precursors, and its importance in the carbon fiber sector will continue to increase. In recent years, driven by the rapid development in fields such as new energy, China’s carbon fiber industry has continued to expand. Its production volume increased from 18,700 tons in 2020 to 59,000 tons in 2024, with an average annual compound growth rate of 33.28%, demonstrating strong resilience in its development. In the future, with advancements in key carbon fiber manufacturing technologies such as dry spray wet spinning and continuous reductions in production costs, the adoption of carbon fiber in applications such as lightweight components for new energy vehicles and larger-scale components for wind turbine blades is set to increase significantly. Driven by favorable policy measures and the continuous expansion of application scenarios, the scale of the carbon fiber industry will grow at an accelerated pace, creating significant new demand for the acrylonitrile industry. Over the next 5 years, as demand for carbon fiber in emerging fields reaches an explosive level, the acrylonitrile market will also enter a period of rapid growth. The annual output value of this industry is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, making it an important cornerstone for the development of high-end chemical new material industries in China. It is worth noting that the competition in the current acrylonitrile industry has reached a fever pitch, and controlling production costs has become crucial for the survival of enterprises. Looking at the industry development trends, technological innovation will be the core driving force in future market competition. For example, companies with proprietary technologies can reduce production costs by minimizing raw material consumption and energy use, while also producing products that meet the demands of high-end end-users, thereby gaining a competitive advantage in the industry’s restructuring. In the market environment of supply-demand imbalance in the acrylonitrile industry, only those enterprises that manage to become stronger and more competitive first can seize the opportunities available in the high-end downstream markets and truly gain a competitive edge.