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Recently, market experts have said that global LNG supply is continuing to expand, and over the next two years the pace of this growth will accelerate further as large-scale projects in key LNG exporting countries such as the United States and Qatar come online. Analysts predict that the growth rate of LNG supply will far exceed that of global demand, and by the end of 2026 the market will enter a phase of oversupply; this situation could reshape the global LNG pricing structure. According to Kpler’s data, global LNG supply is expected to surge by 10.2% this year and next, reaching 475 million tons; this increase is equivalent to the annual total demand of South Korea, the world’s third-largest LNG importer. The main source of growth in LNG supply will gradually shift: the United States will play a key role until 2027, after which Qatar’s LNG production expansion projects and newly approved projects in the United States will enter the market one after another, further increasing the volume of supply. U.S. LNG exports are on a strong upward trend; according to the latest report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. LNG exports this year will reach 14.9 billion cubic feet per day, representing a 25% increase compared to 2024. The export growth from the Prakines LNG project in Louisiana exceeded expectations, prompting the EIA to raise its export forecast for this quarter by 3%, with exports expected to increase by another 10% by 2026. Industry giants and authoritative agencies are all warning of a risk of LNG surplus. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated that in the future, the supply of LNG will exceed the market’s capacity to absorb it, which is likely to lead to a drop in spot prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also points out in its World Energy Outlook that global LNG supply is set to surge by 50% by 2030, with half of this additional capacity coming from the United States and 20% from Qatar. Despite the IEA raising its gas demand forecasts, the path for absorbing additional LNG remains uncertain. Christy Claramunt, head of LNG strategy at Wood Mackenzie, believes the unprecedented momentum in U.S. LNG development is raising concerns about long-term oversupply, but the additional supply fits well with the strong global fundamentals. European demand is set to rise further as efforts are made to reduce dependence on Russian energy sources. The fundamentals of the Asian market are also strong, and low prices are likely to improve the affordability of LNG, thereby triggering another round of demand growth. In terms of price trends, in the short term, LNG spot prices are expected to rise driven by the peak demand during winter in the Northern Hemisphere. If natural gas reserves are not depleted during the European winter, and no significant replenishment is needed following Russia’s withdrawal from the LNG market in 2027, LNG prices could see a noticeable drop in the second half of 2026. Overall, 2026 will be a critical turning point for the LNG market, and the disruptive impact of the surplus situation on prices deserves close attention.