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The U.S. chemical industry may remain weak in 2026

2025-12-23View Original

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Recently, the American Chemistry Council (ACC) released its annual economic outlook report for 2025, indicating that the weak growth trend in chemical production and the industrial sector in the United States will continue into 2026. It is expected that chemical production will increase by only 0.7% in 2025, with this figure further declining to 0.3% in 2026.   Although economic uncertainty has eased, factors such as trade volatility and high interest rates remain constraints. From the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, the growth momentum in the U.S. manufacturing sector gradually slowed down due to changes in tariff policies and high levels of customer inventory, which led to a decline in output in the chemical consumption sector. However, ACC predicts that by mid-2026, the industry will reach a turning point toward recovery ; The recovery process progressed gradually in the second half of the year ; The delayed effects of industrial capacity expansion plans and interest rate cut policies will provide support for an acceleration in growth from the end of 2026 through 2027.   Performance within different segments varied significantly. In 2025, specialty chemicals benefited from a high growth rate of 8.4% in the coatings sector, resulting in an overall growth rate of 4.3%; however, it is expected that there will be a 0.2% decline overall in 2026, with the growth rate for coatings narrowing to 0.4% ; Output of basic chemicals is expected to see a slight increase of 0.1% in 2025; however, declines in the production of inorganic chemicals and plastic resins offset part of this growth. In 2026, the overall growth rate is projected to rebound to 1.2%, although production of synthetic rubber and synthetic fibers is expected to decline ; Agricultural chemicals and household chemicals continue to face pressure, with declines of 1.0% and 1.5% respectively expected by 2026. In 2025, U.S. production of agricultural chemicals increased by 2.7%, while production of consumer chemicals declined by 2.2%.   The terminal app market also shows uneven performance. In 2025, consumption declined in 11 out of 20 markets under observation; the apparel industry saw a 3% drop, while the semiconductor and electronics industries led with a 12% increase. Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a key driver of growth, contributing to a 4.1% increase in investment by U.S. companies by 2025, and thereby boosting demand for chemical products such as semiconductor materials and data center cooling systems. However, in sectors other than AI, high interest rates and rising raw material costs have led to reduced investment plans, which has offset some of the benefits associated with growth; the growth rate of corporate investment is expected to decline to 2.6% by 2026. The consumer market among residents shows signs of divergence: high-income households see their consumption driven by a robust stock market, with the growth rate of household consumption reaching 2.6% in 2025, before slowing down to 1.8% in 2026.

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