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Against the backdrop of increasingly tense geopolitical tensions, international oil prices surged recently before declining again. Currently, amid an oversupply situation, global crude oil inventory levels are expected to continue rising by 2026. Analysts believe that potential uncertainties in the international oil market will increase in the future, and oil price volatility may intensify. Increased volatility in the crude oil market: According to Reuters, after 2026, the United States’ launch of large-scale military operations against Venezuela along with its threats of intervention have heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The concerns resulting from these situations drove up crude oil prices, with them rising for five consecutive trading days from January 8th to 14th. The price of London Brent crude oil futures exceeded $66 per barrel, reaching its highest level since November 2025. However, recently crude oil prices have stopped rising and started to fall, with significant drops, due to reports that the United States may delay a military response against Iran. Reports say that geopolitical situations remain the biggest source of uncertainty affecting the oil market. On January 17, U.S. President *** announced on social media that, starting from February 1, a 10% tariff would be imposed on goods imported into the United States from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland. He also said that this tariff rate would be increased to 25% starting from June 1, until an agreement is reached between the relevant parties regarding the U.S.’s plan to \"purchase Greenland completely and thoroughly.\" Several European Parliament members said on the 17th that, given the U.S. threats against Greenland, the trade agreement reached between Europe and the U.S. last July will not be approved. They also called for the use of counter-coercion tools in response to the U.S. tariff hikes. This sudden geopolitical tension will significantly disrupt market sentiment and shape the short-term trends of gold, crude oil, and major foreign exchange currencies. Some experts point out that, on the one hand, geopolitical risks themselves contribute to a risk premium for oil prices ； On the other hand, this dispute directly involves several European energy importers and North Sea crude oil producers (such as Norway and the UK). Although current tariff threats do not specify different categories of goods, any measures that hinder cross-Atlantic trade flows could disrupt the global crude oil trade pattern, thereby raising concerns in the market regarding supply stability. According to U.S. media reports, Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at global economic analysis firm BCA Research, said that the recent tensions in Iran have raised the probability of a significant disruption to oil supply on a global scale to around 40%. In a recent report to clients, he noted that if the Iranian regime collapses and regional conflicts intensify, it could lead to a \"significant reduction\" in oil production in the region. Analysts at Deutsche Bank also pointed out that the risk of oil price shocks affecting the market this year cannot be ignored. In a recent report to its clients, Deutsche Bank wrote: “A positive supply shock in oil prices will have a substantial impact on inflation expectations and inflation risks.” ”The bank has listed this scenario as one of the key risks to the economic outlook. Historically, changes in the geopolitical regimes of oil-producing countries have often led to sharp increases in oil prices. ****Studies have shown that since 1979, eight such incidents have caused crude oil prices to rise by 30%, with peaks reaching 76%, often having a lasting impact on the market. Several major Wall Street banks have a more positive outlook on oil prices. Citigroup has raised its near-term benchmark forecast for Brent crude to $70 per barrel, citing an expanding geopolitical risk premium associated with Iran, as well as ongoing export disruptions in countries such as Libya and Algeria. However, other analyses suggest that even if a major **** breaks out in the Middle East and leads to disruptions in supply, the production capacity in other parts of the world is sufficient to fill the gap, thereby significantly reducing the geopolitical risks posed to supply. A report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in December 2025 showed that in 2025, approximately 1.7 million barrels per day of the increase in global crude oil supply came from countries outside the \"OPEC+\" group; Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina together accounted for nearly 30% of this increase. The crude oil market is facing a huge supply surplus. Although geopolitical tensions have driven up oil prices recently, weak fundamentals continue to cast a shadow over the medium-term prospects for the oil industry. Against the backdrop of weak demand growth, the global oil market is facing a severe supply surplus this year as OPEC+ and other oil-producing countries increase production. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its monthly report for December 2025 that the global surplus of crude oil supply in 2026 could reach as much as 3.84 million barrels per day. Rob Tumel, senior portfolio manager at Totus Capital Management, said in a report: “Oil prices have already fallen due to an oversupply in the global oil market.” The current events in Venezuela will not change this trend. ” A Reuters survey of 34 economists and analysts conducted earlier this month further reinforced this bearish sentiment. Surveys indicate that in 2026, the global oil market will remain under pressure, as growing supply and weak demand keep prices in check. The survey predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 will be $61.27 per barrel, lower than the forecast of $62.23 per barrel in November 2025 ； The average price of crude oil in the United States in 2026 is projected to be $58.15 per barrel, lower than the previously estimated $59.00 per barrel. Bridget Payne, head of energy forecasting at the Oxford Institute for Economic Policy Studies, said: “Maintaining stable production through the first quarter of 2026 will help limit recent price fluctuations and provide some support for prices, but it will not substantially change the underlying situation of surplus.” Even if quotas remain unchanged, supply is expected to exceed demand, putting pressure on prices throughout the year. ” On January 14, OPEC released its monthly oil market report, maintaining its previous forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and releasing a forecast for oil demand in 2027 for the first time. The report predicts that global daily oil demand in 2026 will be 1.38 million barrels higher than in 2025, reaching 106.52 million barrels ； In 2027, the world’s average daily oil demand will increase by 1.34 million barrels compared to 2026, reaching 107.86 million barrels. The report states that of the increase in global daily oil demand in 2027, 1.24 million barrels will come from non-OECD countries. The report shows that global daily oil demand in 2025 will remain at 105.14 million barrels, the same as the forecast cited in the report from the previous month. Potential uncertainties in the oil market are increasing. The recent large-scale military action by the United States against Venezuela has drawn criticism from some European financial institutions. Many believe that this move could exacerbate global investors’ concerns over geopolitical uncertainties, and have potential impacts on the supply in the international oil market as well as risk expectations. Marshall Alexandrovich, an analyst at the British salt marsh economic consulting firm, said that the geopolitical risks facing the market today are significantly higher than during previous U.S. administrations. From trade frictions to the situation in the Middle East, and most recently the events in Venezuela, investors must contend with multiple overlapping political risks that are affecting market sentiment and investment decisions. “The major uncertainties that the market must address far exceed historical experience. ”Aleksandrovich said. Tina Fordum, founder of Fordum Global Outlook, pointed out that the United States’ unilateral actions have increased market uncertainty. She believes that investors are optimistic about the situation in Venezuela, but the reality may be more complex and unstable. Political interference may disrupt market sentiment in the short term, while increasing uncertainty regarding supply and investment. The current market generally believes that international oil prices are still primarily driven by global economic growth, the policies of major oil-producing countries, and changes in inventory levels. However, the U.S. military’s large-scale attack on Venezuela once again reminds the market that unilateral actions could exacerbate geopolitical uncertainties, posing potential risks to the global energy market. Some experts believe that the U.S. dollar index will continue to weaken in 2026, with pessimism persisting in the market; as a result, gold prices will remain high. Due to various factors, uncertainty in the crude oil market is increasing, and intensifying geopolitical conflicts will further exacerbate short-term fluctuations in oil prices.