CNPC Research Institute releases two important reports analyzing the \"six changes and eight stabilities\" in the development of the oil and gas industries at home and abroad

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　　On February 3, 2026, **the high-level think tank, China National Petroleum Corporation Economic and Technical Research Institute, held a launch event in Beijing for the \"2025 Report on the Development of the Oil and Gas Industry at Home and Abroad\" and the \"Global Energy Security Report (2025)\”. This marks the 18th consecutive year that the CNPC Economic Research Institute has published a report on the development of the oil and gas industry, as well as the 4th consecutive year it has issued a report on global energy security. For the second year in a row, the institute has also released the \"CNPC Economic Research Institute Energy Data Handbook\" at the same time. Nearly 400 guests from almost 90 organizations including government departments, energy companies, think tanks, and universities, as well as 30 domestic and international media outlets, gathered at the event. Through face-to-face discussions and simultaneous online broadcasts across multiple platforms, they reviewed the evolution of the global energy landscape in 2025 and the achievements of China’s oil and gas industry, while also looking ahead to the development trends for 2026. The number of views for multi-platform live broadcasts reached 21.3 million, setting a new record. 　　At the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the press conference presented the key findings of the report from various perspectives, including the development trends in the energy and oil & gas industries, global energy security governance, domestic and international oil & gas markets, and the development dynamics of domestic and foreign oil companies. The report states that by 2025, the world will enter a period of profound change, with geopolitical conflicts, economic restructuring, and energy transitions interacting with each other. The global oil and gas industry will face complex \"new developments,\" characterized by increased instability, systemic reshaping, and a reconfiguration of existing patterns. China’s oil and gas industry has demonstrated strong strategic confidence and resilience in development; while maintaining stability, it has pursued progress to ensure a successful conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan period. By 2026, the world economy will continue to be characterized by \"low growth, high differentiation, and frequent disruptions.\" Global energy security and market stability will face even greater challenges, while geopolitical tensions will remain a key factor affecting the operation of the oil and gas industry. China’s economy will maintain steady progress, with the effort to build a strong energy nation underway; the energy sector will build on the foundations laid during the 15th Five-Year Plan period to accelerate the development of a new energy system. 　　Zhang Hualin, assistant to the general manager of CNPC, Wei Chihao, secretary of the Party Committee of the Research Center under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, and Qian Xingkun, executive director and secretary of the Party Committee of CNPC’s Economic and Technical Research Institute, delivered speeches at the press conference, which was chaired by Lu Ruquan, director of CNPC’s Economic and Technical Research Institute. The guests agreed that, in the present and for some time to come, the energy sector will remain in a phase of deep adjustment and transformation. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee proposed for the first time the goal of building an \"energy powerhouse,\" thereby setting new benchmarks and laying out new requirements for the development of this sector. State-owned energy enterprises must assume their primary responsibilities, improve coordination mechanisms, and leverage the role of think tanks affiliated with state-owned assets and central enterprises as advisory bodies. By adopting a comprehensive perspective and practical measures, they can actively address risks and challenges and promote high-quality development in the industry. 　　The \"2025 Report on the Development of the Oil and Gas Industry at Home and Abroad\" clearly states that the global oil and gas industry, characterized by chaos and instability, and China’s oil and gas industry, which moves forward while maintaining stability, interact with each other, giving rise to a development trend of \"six changes and eight stabilities.\" This trend brings distinct elements of change as well as a sense of certainty to the global energy market. 　　Changes in the world are driving a reshaping of industry rules. The geopolitical landscape is undergoing dramatic changes, with multiple crises coexisting, an old order giving way to a new one, and the strategic relationships among major powers being profoundly reshaped. By 2026, the world will see an increase in competition, greater risk spillovers, and a faster reshaping of supply chains. The shift in the drivers of economic growth: from cyclical recovery to structural growth. By 2026, the large-scale application of artificial intelligence and investments in green and low-carbon transformation will serve as the two driving forces for growth, with energy demand shifting from pure expansion in volume to a balance between volume expansion and structural optimization. There has been a sudden shift in energy policy directions, leading to significant divergences in the global path toward energy development. The consensus on addressing climate change is weakening, while consumption of both fossil and non-fossil fuels continues to rise. The demand for fossil fuels is expected to increase, delaying the peak usage time for oil and gas. The dominant forces in the oil market have changed; the global oil market is now primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics, shifting from a tight supply-demand balance to a clear surplus. By 2026, the global oil market will be in a dynamic struggle between the reality of supply and demand surplus and the risk of geopolitical conflicts. Driven by fundamental factors, the average price of Brent crude is expected to range from $60 to $65 per barrel; whereas under the influence of geopolitical conflicts, it could rise to $70 to $75 per barrel. The supply and demand dynamics in the natural gas market have changed, shifting from a tight balance to a more relaxed one. By 2025, the global natural gas market is expected to show a pattern of tight conditions in the early stage and more relaxed conditions later on. By 2026, global demand for natural gas is set to increase again, with the increase in supply exceeding that in demand, thus initiating a downward trend in international gas prices. The global refining landscape is changing, with the capacity structure being reshaped at an accelerated pace. In 2025, global refining capacity will experience another net decline, falling by 4.85 million tons per year on a year-on-year basis. By 2026, the refining landscape will show regional differentiation with a shift of centers to the east; ethylene production is in a phase of growth and industrial upgrading, exhibiting significant regional differences. 　　China’s stability brings certainty and growth to an uncertain global landscape. China’s economic growth continues to advance steadily, with ongoing structural optimization. The Chinese economy demonstrates strong resilience in development and determination in transformation. New quality productive forces are systematically reshaping industrial logic, with energy demand showing a stronger connection to industrial upgrading and technological innovation. Energy development is improving while remaining stable, with the transition toward green and low-carbon practices accelerating. By 2025, China’s energy self-sufficiency rate will rise to 84.4%, with non-fossil energy accounting for 21.8% of total energy consumption. Solar and wind power will become the main sources contributing to electricity supply growth, and it is expected that the share of non-fossil energy in energy consumption will exceed 23% by 2026. Oil and gas supply has seen growth while remaining stable, achieving significant results in ensuring oil and gas security. By 2025, the \"Seven-Year Action Plan\" will come to a successful conclusion, with oil and gas production reaching 420 million tons of oil equivalent, both figures setting new historical highs. By 2026, crude oil production is expected to remain stable at 200 million tons, while natural gas will continue to experience rapid growth. Oil consumption is seeing new developments while remaining stable, with the trend toward transformation becoming more evident. By 2025, China’s oil consumption will be 762 million tons, representing a 1.1% increase year-on-year; the energy consumption structure will be characterized by a decline in gasoline and diesel use, an increase in jet fuel use, and a significant rise in the use of light oil for chemical industries. By 2026, total oil consumption will remain relatively stable, with the trend of a decline in oil use and an increase in its alternatives becoming more evident; demand for chemical raw materials will serve as a new driver for growth. Natural gas consumption is growing at a steady pace, with broad prospects in the medium term. By 2025, China’s natural gas consumption will be 432 billion cubic meters, with growth in gas usage for transportation exceeding 10%; gas usage for industrial purposes and power generation is set to increase steadily as well. Natural gas consumption is expected to be between 450 billion and 455 billion cubic meters in 2026, and around 550 billion cubic meters by 2030. The transformation and upgrading of the refining and petrochemical industry are advancing at a steady pace, with integration and high-end development continuing to improve. By 2025, China’s refining industry will undergo transformation through volume control and improvement through structural adjustments; refining capacity will reach a plateau, with the self-sufficiency rate for basic petrochemical products rising to 80%. By 2026, the optimization of the industry structure will continue, with an expected increase in refining capacity of 15 million tons per year and in basic petrochemical production capacity of 19 million tons per year. The substitution of imported materials with domestic alternatives in the field of new materials will yield significant results, driving the industry toward higher levels of sophistication and precision. Oil companies achieve steady development, strengthening their foundations and pursuing innovation for high-quality growth. The oil and gas production of China’s three major petroleum companies has reached new record levels, demonstrating sustained performance resilience and stability. Actively foster a “second growth curve” represented by low-carbon energy, new materials, and digitalization. International cooperation remains robust and strong, with a pattern of multi-party win-win outcomes being further developed. Chinese companies have achieved significant success in expanding their production capacity overseas, with overseas production volume reaching 196 million tons by 2025. By deepening cooperation across the entire industrial chain, acquiring high-quality assets, and accelerating the integration of new energy sources, overseas production is expected to exceed 200 million tons by 2026. 　　The Global Energy Security Report (2025) argues that the strategic importance of energy has become even more prominent, and it are not market factors that are making the energy security situation more complex and unpredictable. Based on the evaluation results, global energy security will face challenges in 2025, with scores in the four dimensions showing two increases and two decreases. Although the shift in U.S. policy has led to a slowdown in the installation of renewable energy systems, efforts to improve global energy efficiency and reduce emissions continue, resulting in an overall improvement in sustainability ； The fundamentals of fossil fuels remain favorable, but soaring prices of key minerals have led to only a slight improvement in their affordability ； Increasing geopolitical instability and strained electricity supply have led to reduced availability ； Despite the recovery in oil reserves, declining spare capacity and increasing concentration in mineral supply have led to a decline in system resilience. China’s energy security situation is improving overall, as the country embarks on a new journey toward becoming a major energy power. By 2025, there will be divergences in concepts, models, and approaches to global energy development. On one hand, the United States is vigorously developing fossil fuels and withdrawing from international climate governance ； There are also many **examples of perseverance**, as countries commit to pursuing a sustainable path of low-carbon transformation and action to address climate change. By 2025, the security of fossil fuels will be relatively under control, while the safety risks associated with power systems will become more prominent. The focus of energy security is shifting from \"high-carbon energy\" to \"low-carbon energy\". Natural gas plays an important role in meeting the growing demand for electricity and ensuring system stability. The security of supply for critical minerals is a matter of great concern; resource competition is intensifying, and there is an urgent need to diversify supply chains. The report calls on all parties to adopt a more inclusive, collaborative, and cooperative approach to energy security, to prioritize development, place safety at the core of their efforts, and uphold multilateralism. It urges them to balance the interests of various parties through consultation and dialogue, to promote the coordinated development of different forms of energy, and to engage in practical cooperation in areas such as energy investment, market development, resilience of supply chains, and climate governance. 　　Qian Xingkun, executive director and party secretary of the Economic and Technical Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation, explained that these two reports are the result of meticulous research conducted by dozens of experts and key researchers within the institute, who have closely monitored the development trends in the domestic and international oil and gas industries. As the decision-support body of China National Petroleum Corporation and one of the first pilot units for the establishment of high-end think tanks, the institute adheres to its \"four priorities\" mission, remains focused on matters of national significance, and concentrates on key issues related to the enterprise. It is committed to providing strategic, forward-looking, and practical research findings to support central government decisions, the reform of the group company, industry development, and social progress. 　　At the meeting, Wu Mouyuan, deputy director of the Economic and Technical Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation, together with key report authors such as Liu Jia, the institute’s chief expert; Yuan Liuyan, director of the Energy Strategy Research Institute; Wang Haibo, director of the Petroleum Market Research Institute; Duan Zhaofang, director of the Natural Gas Market Research Institute; Li Chunxin, director of the Corporate Governance and Enterprise Management Research Institute; Zhang Xiuling, director of the Overseas Investment Environment Research Institute; and Yang Yan, director of the Energy Technology Research Institute, engaged in in-depth discussions on industry-related hot topics with senior industry experts present, conference attendees, media reporters, and online viewers. The atmosphere at the event was lively, and the opinions expressed were highly insightful. 　　It is reported that the \"2025 Report on the Development of the Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industries\" has been published by China Petroleum Industry Press.