Thread Content
In 2025, the Chinese petroleum coke market showed strong upward momentum despite fluctuations, with prices for domestically produced petroleum coke rising by over 60% throughout the year. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand landscape in 2026, industry experts believe that the petroleum coke market will exhibit structural differentiation within a context of relatively strong fluctuations, while the low-sulfur coke market is likely to continue to face a tight supply and demand situation. Strong market rise In 2025, the petroleum coke market followed a trajectory that started with an upward trend, was followed by a downward phase, and then saw another upward movement amid volatility. According to the commodity price analysis system of Business News, the mainstream price of domestically produced petroleum coke on January 1, 2025, was 1,615 yuan per ton; by December 31, it had risen to 2,598.25 yuan per ton, representing an annual increase of 60.88%. The price trend followed an “M” shape, resulting in a strong finish for that year. Specifically, around the Spring Festival in 2025, driven by a contraction in supply and rising demand from downstream industries for inventory building, the price of petroleum coke surged significantly. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some local refining and coking units have ceased operations or reduced production, resulting in a decrease in the overall supply of petroleum coke in the market. At the same time, there was a concentrated increase in demand from aluminum carbon and anode manufacturers to restock their inventory, leading to tighter market supplies; this supply-demand imbalance drove the market price up significantly. From March to June 2025, as imported petroleum coke arrived in large quantities, coupled with a cautious attitude on the demand side, prices fluctuated and declined. On the one hand, imported coke is set to arrive in large quantities in the second quarter of 2025, leading to an accumulation of inventory at ports. On the other hand, demand from downstream industries has declined due to the high prices of petroleum coke in previous periods; market transactions are primarily driven by essential needs. Meanwhile, the benchmark price for pre-baked anodes in Shandong continues to fall, further contributing to a cautious attitude in the market. In the second half of 2025, refineries carried out centralized maintenance on their coking units, and coupled with an increase in demand for anodes in downstream industries, these factors combined to drive up oil coke prices in an upward trend. During this period, an increasing number of domestic refineries halted operations for equipment maintenance, resulting in a continuous decline in the supply of petroleum coke. At the same time, the purchasing benchmark price for pre-baked anodes in Shandong has continued to rise, and downstream anode material manufacturers are active in making purchases, which has driven a significant upward trend in the market for domestically produced petroleum coke. The petroleum coke market has continued to perform well this year. Data shows that as of February 10, the mainstream price for petroleum coke was 2,605 yuan per ton. Slowing growth in supply Industry experts believe that by 2026, the growth rate of new capacity for petroleum coke will slow down, resulting in limited increases on the supply side. Zhang Yangyang, an analyst at Longzhong Information, noted that the period of rapid capacity expansion for delayed coking units came to an end in 2022. The pace of capacity growth during the new cycle from 2026 to 2030 is significantly slower than that during the cycle from 2021 to 2025, with new capacity additions mainly coming from refinery upgrading projects. As domestic consumption of refined oil reaches its peak, the proportion of delayed coking units among new production capacities will decline in the future, with more new capacity coming from residue hydrogenation units. Zhang Yangyang predicts that between 2026 and 2030, the total new capacity of delayed coking units in China will be 9.5 million tons, with most of this capacity located in the East China region. However, as the progress of project construction remains uncertain, the commissioning of the capacity of these delayed coking units is likely to take place primarily between 2027 and 2028. It is worth noting that Huajin Sinopec Petrochemical Co., Ltd.’s 1.6 million tons per year delayed coking unit is likely to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2026. Additionally, Hebei Lunte’s 2 million tons per year residue deep processing project may also be completed, but both units are expected to be finished by the end of 2026, and thus they are not expected to make a significant contribution to the petroleum coke production capacity in that year. Strong demand growth: The driving forces behind the increase in demand for petroleum coke are clear. Demand in the aluminum carbon industry remains stable, and orders for anode materials used in energy storage and power applications continue to rise. This is expected to provide strong support for demand for petroleum coke. In particular, emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and energy storage will contribute to an increase in demand for petroleum coke. It is reported that the calcination process remains the most important intermediate step in the distribution of petroleum coke to downstream industries. Downstream sectors such as pre-baked anodes, carbonizers, and graphite electrodes all require this calcination process, making the calcination industry the largest and most dominant sector in the petroleum coke value chain. Zhang Yangyang believes that in terms of calcined coke, rapid growth is expected to continue from 2026 to 2027, with the new production capacity added over these two years accounting for 81% of the total production capacity to be established over the next five years. In terms of the pre-baked anode market, there are still many new projects planned for implementation between 2026 and 2030, and demand will continue to increase; it is estimated that the production capacity for pre-baked anodes will reach 36.5 million tons by 2030. In terms of anode materials, by 2025, the domestic lithium battery anode material market is set to experience simultaneous growth in scale and industrial transformation. Analysts at Business Society for Petroleum Coke believe that the main driving force behind market growth is the strong demand from two key application areas: power batteries and energy storage. Among them, the energy storage sector has performed particularly well, becoming the main driver of demand growth in the downstream market for anodes. By 2025, the annual production of anode materials is expected to be around 2.95 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 77.6%. The dependence on imported petroleum coke for anode materials remains as high as 45%. As domestic production capacity for needle coke increases, the process of import substitution will accelerate, with the localization rate expected to rise above 75% by 2030. Therefore, the market for anode materials will continue to see growing demand in 2026. In addition, demand for graphite electrodes, carbon electrodes, and metallic silicon is also expected to increase slightly. Based on an analysis of the structure of petroleum coke products, analysts at Business Society believe that tight supply of low-sulfur coke is driving up prices, and these prices will remain high due to the demand from lithium battery anodes. Medium-sulfur coke will be driven primarily by demand from traditional industries, while high-sulfur coke will continue to see its prices stay low owing to the fuel substitution effect. Therefore, it is expected that oil coke prices will show a generally strong fluctuating trend in 2026, with structural differences likely to widen further.