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On March 12, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its latest monthly report that, due to the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the global oil market is facing the most severe supply disruptions in history. Due to nearly halted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and saturated oil storage facilities, the Gulf **has had to cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, with over 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity forced to shut down. Before the conflict, the volume of crude oil and petroleum products transported through the Strait of Hormuz was around 20 million barrels per day, while today this figure has dropped to a negligible level. The report states that if shipping cannot recover soon, the global gap in crude oil supply will widen further. The report predicts that global oil supply will decrease by 8 million barrels per day in March, with refining capacity of over 4 million barrels per day at risk; the diesel and aviation kerosene markets are particularly vulnerable due to obstacles in exports. The report indicates that production in other regions will also be restricted due to a shortage of available raw materials, which could lead to a supply shortage in 2026. By 2025, producers in the Gulf region will export 3.3 million barrels per day of refined oil products, as well as 1.5 million barrels per day of liquefied petroleum gas. The International Energy Agency said, “The sharp decline in the supply of liquefied petroleum gas and naphtha forced petrochemical plants to reduce their polymer production, further exacerbating the shortage of petrochemical products in the Gulf region.” ” The report states that although production in non-OPEC+ countries such as Kazakhstan and Russia has increased, easing the supply constraints, this improvement is not sufficient to fully offset the pressures facing the global market. The International Energy Agency predicts that global oil supply will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day by 2026. This increase is mainly driven by higher production from non-OPEC+ countries. It should be noted, however, that the extent of the reduction in oil supply depends on the duration of the conflict and the degree to which trade flows are disrupted. The report predicts that flight cancellations in the Middle East and disruptions to liquefied petroleum gas supplies will result in oil demand in March and April being 1 million barrels per day lower than previously estimated. The International Energy Agency emphasizes that the ultimate impact of this conflict on the oil and gas markets and the overall economy depends not only on the intensity of military actions and the extent of damage to energy facilities, but more importantly on the duration of disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.