Summary Post on the Market Conditions and Prices of Compound Fertilizers in March 2017

In the diammonium phosphate market, there is demand but no supply; new orders show stability on the surface while prices are actually declining. Author/Source: Date: 2017-03-01 Clicks: 16. Demand for diammonium phosphate is low, yet companies maintain firm pricing; however, actual transaction prices are decreasing subtly. On February 27, China’s Phosphoric Acid Diammonium Wholesale Price Index (CPPI) was 2659.80 points, down 2.37 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.09% ； A decrease of 206.07 points on a year-on-year basis, representing a decline of 7.19% ； It dropped by 561.97 points from the base period, representing a decline of 17.44%. On February 27, China’s Phosphoric Acid Diammonium Retail Price Index (CPRI) was 2833.57 points, down 1.96 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.07% ； A decrease of 237.26 points on a year-on-year basis, representing a decline of 7.73% ； It dropped by 541.35 points from the base period, representing a decline of 16.04%. 　　Supply situation: Recently, the trading atmosphere in the diammonium phosphate market has been sluggish, with companies offering high prices. At present, efforts are focused on fulfilling orders received in advance, and the supply in the market is mainly in the hands of large distributors. Recently, large manufacturing enterprises have continued to reduce production, with some supplies gradually arriving at the ports; as a result, market supply has decreased, and companies tend to maintain high prices. In the raw material market, sulfur prices saw slight adjustments, with ports adopting a cautious attitude ； The sulfuric acid market remains stable with only minor fluctuations; manufacturers are inclined to raise prices ； Synthetic ammonia prices remain stable at higher levels, with fluctuations in both upward and downward directions ； The phosphate rock market is generally **, with increasing transactions at the downstream level. The average operational rate of enterprises is around 57%, up by 4 percentage points week-on-week. 　　Demand situation: Spring plowing and fertilizer preparation in the Northeast region begin after April. Given the currently high prices of diammonium phosphate, there is no visible demand at the retail level, with few buyers. In terms of export markets, due to rising international prices, the FOB price for Chinese exports stands at $360–370 per ton, with several small orders having been concluded. 　　International market: Last week, international diammonium phosphate prices remained stable with slight increases. Among them, the FOB price in China is $361–371 per ton, remaining stable ； The FOB price in Port Tampa, USA is $371 per ton, with increases of $3 per ton at both the lower and higher end ranges ； The FOB price in Tunisia is $356–376 per ton, remaining stable ； In Morocco, the FOB price is $353–359 per ton, remaining stable ； Baltic/Black Sea FOB: $371-$381 per ton; both the lower and upper ends increased by $33 per ton. 　　Domestic market: Data from 21 provinces monitored by the association show that the wholesale prices of diammonium phosphate in China remain stable overall, with slight increases or decreases in some areas. Among them, prices in Liaoning Province showed an upward trend, with an increase of 100 yuan per ton ； In the provinces of Shandong and Shanxi, prices declined by 11 yuan per ton and 38 yuan per ton respectively, while prices in the other provinces remained stable. 　　At present, high prices of raw materials and continuous rises in international prices are providing support; the orders received by companies in advance are sufficient to meet the needs of the spring planting season, leaving little room for another market upturn. It is expected that prices will remain stable in the coming period, though a slight decline cannot be ruled out. 　　(A project supported by central government funding; provided by Qiao Liying from the China Agricultural Inputs Distribution Association)

Weekly Report on the Compound Fertilizer Market for the Fourth Week of February – Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network – Date: 2017-02-27 – Clicks: 34. This week, the pricing offered by compound fertilizer manufacturers remained generally stable; a few high-end products came with promotional discounts of around 30–50 yuan per ton. Currently, the tentative ex-factory prices for 45% NCl (15:15:15) compound fertilizers are around 1800–2000 yuan per ton, while those for 45% S (15:15:15) compound fertilizers are around 2050–2250 yuan per ton. High-end products have prices in the range of 2350–2400 yuan per ton. Some manufacturers in the Northeast region have offered short-term winter storage prices, with the delivery price for 45% S (12-18-15) fertilizers being around 2230–2260 yuan per ton. 　　This week, demand for compound fertilizers remains slow to pick up, especially in the Northeast region. First-level distributors have stocked up on a small amount of fertilizers, but procurement at the grassroots level has almost come to a halt; as a result, it is difficult for compound fertilizer manufacturers to get their products sold ； The demand for rice fertilizers in southern regions such as Jiangsu and Anhui is gradually increasing, and sales for companies have improved slightly. However, they continue to mainly fulfill the orders placed at lower prices earlier on; the new prices that have risen recently are not accepted by downstream customers. As a result, a few companies have introduced preferential policies this week in an effort to secure new orders. Some companies have also raised their prices slightly in an attempt to encourage customers who made payments earlier to place further orders, but the results have not been satisfactory. **With environmental regulations becoming increasingly stringent, production rates have declined slightly only among enterprises in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; in most other areas, production rates are still slowly recovering as companies stock up to meet future market demands. By the end of the weekend, the overall production rate of large-scale compound fertilizer manufacturers had risen to around 80%. 　　In terms of raw material costs: the mainstream ex-factory price of urea in Shandong region has risen slightly to 1620–1630 yuan, while the actual transaction prices at the factory are around 1590–1620 yuan. As urea from other provinces continues to arrive, the purchase price in Linyi has dropped to 1630–1650 yuan ； The ammonium chloride market remains relatively stable. In some areas, certain manufacturers have lower operation rates of their ammonium chloride production facilities due to environmental inspections, resulting in insufficient output; therefore, orders for dry ammonium chloride need to be controlled. Currently, the standard outlet price for wet ammonium chloride in Jiangsu is around 550–600 yuan, while the actual transaction price ranges between 530–560 yuan ； The price of monoammonium phosphate remains weak; companies have few orders pending, and inventory pressure is increasing. Some premium prices have been reduced, with the mainstream ex-plant price for 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in Hubei being around 1950 yuan ； Production at the major potassium chloride plants in Qinghai region is recovering, with prices remaining stable; the price for 60% potassium available for delivery to agents is 1970 yuan ； The price of potassium sulfate remains relatively stable for now; manufacturers are hoping for an increase in demand, with the mainstream price for 50% powder being around 2500 yuan. 　　Overall, the support provided by raw material costs has declined, with a significant drop in the price of urea. Demand in the southern regions is starting to recover slowly, while demand in the northern regions for fertilizer preparation has practically come to a standstill. A few companies have introduced favorable policies to encourage sales; it is expected that prices of compound fertilizers will remain stable or slightly decline in the short term, with only minor adjustments at both the high and low end.

Compound Fertilizers: A Moderate Calm After the Boom Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2017-02-27 Clicks: 26 Those in the industry surely still remember the \"century-long downturn\" in the compound fertilizer market from November 2015 to the first three quarters of 2016. After this prolonged period of weakness, driven by a sharp rise in raw material prices, compound fertilizer prices finally started to rise again. However, the market for compound fertilizers has recently shown signs of weakness; although prices have not been lowered yet, some companies have introduced certain favorable policies. It seems that the compound fertilizer market has once again entered a situation of tentative stability, similar to the early spring when temperatures are still mild. 　　I. Examine the raw materials: The price of urea continues to decline, while the market conditions for ammonium and potassium fertilizers are somewhat weak. 　　Since mid-February, urea prices have continued to decline steadily. Taking the Shandong region as an example, the price of small-grain urea dropped from 1,730 yuan per ton after the Spring Festival holiday to 1,610 yuan per ton, representing a total decrease of 120 yuan. According to feedback from downstream users, the actual transaction price in the market is likely around 1,590 yuan per ton, which illustrates the weak market conditions. In terms of raw materials, not only is the price of urea falling, but the market prices for monoammonium and potassium fertilizers are also weak since the return of the Spring Festival. In Hubei region, the mainstream ex-factory price for 55% powdered monoammonium nitrogen is around 1,950 yuan; some large manufacturers are now offering prices below 1,900 yuan, while certain smaller manufacturers are providing ex-factory prices as low as 1,800–1,830 yuan. This represents a drop of 50–100 yuan compared to the previous mainstream price of around 2,000 yuan. The market situation for potassium chloride at ports is poor; the price for 60% red powder, delivered at the buyer’s location, is around 1930–1980. Demand is growing slowly while supply is relatively abundant. It is expected that prices of potassium chloride will decline gradually in the short term. Currently, only the price of potassium sulfate remains stable. 　　II. Assessing demand: Demand is beginning to rise in various regions, with purchasing volumes increasing slowly. 　　By the end of February, crops such as wheat, fruits, vegetables, tea, and medicinal herbs enter the stage of topdressing. Market demand begins to emerge in various regions, with demand in the southern areas being slightly stronger than that in the northern areas. However, it is still too early for the high demand for fertilizers in food crops such as corn and rice to arise; some areas may see this demand start around the end of March, while those in more remote areas might not begin using large amounts of fertilizer until April or May. As a result, market demand is currently in a brief period of lull. It is also understood that the compound fertilizers available on the market are mostly those purchased at low prices in the earlier stages, and high-priced versions have not yet been fully accepted by the market. 　　III. Fertilizer prices fluctuate frequently, leading to cautious purchasing attitudes among distributors and end-users. 　　During the initial winter fertilizer stockpiling phase, some distributors stocked up on fertilizers when their prices were low, but after the prices rose sharply, they adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Recently, raw material prices have declined, and some distributors have also reported that downstream customers are less inclined to make purchases, waiting for composite fertilizers to become cheaper. Fertilizer prices fluctuate frequently, often varying by dozens or even hundreds of yuan. In some regions, distributors are forced to sell urea at a loss. Meanwhile, the profit margins on compound fertilizers continue to shrink. Additionally, end-users have developed the habit of refraining from purchasing fertilizers until the fertilization season arrives; as a result, overall purchasing sentiment in the market remains very cautious. 　　“\"When things reach their extreme, they reverse; excess leads to deficiency.\" Sustained upward trends over a long period of time are not necessarily beneficial for the overall development of the compound fertilizer market in 2017. The market is currently in a period of stability and consolidation. It is hoped that, after experiencing the downturns in 2015–2016, the compound fertilizer market will see positive developments in 2017. 　　(Li Qingling)

The weakness in the monoammonium phosphate market has intensified. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: February 27, 2017. Page views: 30. This week, the situation in the monoammonium phosphate market deteriorated further, much like the “late spring cold snap” in the weather. New orders for enterprises are not performing well; the orders accumulated earlier have been mostly fulfilled, and inventory pressure is increasing gradually. It is reported that large factories in Hubei have an inventory of 20,000–30,000 tons, while smaller factories also have an inventory close to 10,000 tons. It is understood that major monoammonium phosphate producers in Hubei, the Southwest, and other regions have lowered their inflated quotation levels. Currently, the prevailing ex-factory price for 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in Hubei ranges from 1,900 to 1,950 yuan per ton. For large-scale producers, the actual ex-factory price has dropped below 1,900 yuan; meanwhile, some small-scale producers have also secured orders at prices below 1,800 yuan per ton ； Recently, I also heard that some companies have introduced promotional policies offering a minimum guarantee until the end of March or April. Industry experts agree that the price of monoammonium phosphate is currently in a state of chaos, and they are generally pessimistic about its future trend. 　　Slow downstream demand is the main reason. Previous articles also mentioned that downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers stocked up on ammonium sulfate as a raw material before the Spring Festival; the amount of stockpiled was actually not very large. Why was the quantity added in such small amounts, and why are these compound fertilizer companies not in a hurry to make purchases at the moment? The main reason is that the operating rate of ammonium nitrogen fertilizer dropped significantly in the fourth quarter of last year, leading to a sharp rise in prices. At that time, many compound fertilizer manufacturers stocked up large quantities of ammonium nitrogen fertilizer, and some of this stock still hadn’t reached those manufacturers by the time of the Spring Festival. The current inventory held by compound fertilizer manufacturers will suffice for some time. The author spoke with purchasing officers from large compound fertilizer companies in Shandong, Hebei, and other regions, who said that the existing inventory of ammonium nitrogen fertilizer will be enough to support production until mid-March or even April. Additionally, sales of compound fertilizers have not improved recently, and these companies also have substantial inventories of their own. Currently, the focus is on using up the existing stocks of compound fertilizers and raw materials, so there is no urgency to purchase more ammonium nitrogen fertilizer at the moment. Moreover, the demand for compound fertilizers in spring is mainly for high-nitrogen fertilizers; the production of compound fertilizers requires less ammonium nitrate compared to autumn. In short, when domestic supply is relatively high, weak demand is the main factor directly causing the chaos in ammonium prices. 　　There are few chances of turning things around in the short term. Although raw material costs and export demand have a positive impact on the overall market situation for monoammonium phosphate, the main factors affecting its market are domestic demand and supply, which exert a negative influence. It is expected that sales of compound fertilizers will improve once demand really picks up in the spring, and the demand from compound fertilizer manufacturers for monoammonium phosphate may also see an improvement. However, it is unlikely that the price of monoammonium phosphate will see a significant increase. Industry experts believe that prices of this substance will only continue to rise if environmental inspections lead to another sharp drop in production rates, and to a greater extent than last year. Recently, in an effort to alleviate their financial and inventory pressures, ammonium sulfate producers may be forced to make continuous compromises, and some larger companies will also gradually join in these compromises, leading to a further decline in prices. 　　Finally, it is hoped that during periods of poor market conditions, ammonium sulfate manufacturers can also work together to overcome difficulties; there should be no situation where everyone abandons each other in times of trouble. It is important to unite during these difficult times and strive to get through the off-season challenges. (Zhao Hongye)

Good-quality diammonium products are hard to ship; if this situation continues, the market will decline! Author/Source: China Agri-Media Date: 2017-02-28 Clicks: 22 At the end of February, the arrival of spring snow prompted those in the agri-supplies industry to pay more attention to the developments in the spring plowing market. It also increases the concern of dealers who are already worried about the slow delivery times. 　　Manufacturers have accumulated too many orders from earlier periods; whether fertilizers for spring plowing will arrive on time and whether transportation can be ensured are several major issues that concern distributors, in addition to fluctuations in market prices. In terms of prices, aside from a slight decrease of 50–100 yuan per ton in the price of monoammonium phosphate after the New Year, the market prices of phosphate fertilizers remain generally stable at present. The international export situation is also performing well, with relatively high prices and abundant orders. Affected by the weak support from rising prices, the mindset of dealers and manufacturers in the market has shifted from expecting price increases to striving to maintain stability, with a strong willingness to hold prices steady. 　　Delays in shipments have led to a large backlog of goods waiting to be sent out. Wang Lihui, sales manager at the Hebei Province Agricultural Materials Production and Distribution Company, said, “This year, the volume of diammonium phosphate shipped is much lower than in previous years. Moreover, factories will not be able to overcome these shipping difficulties in the next 10 days. Additionally, due to the cold weather this year, the grassroots markets are starting to recover slowly. It is expected that this situation will improve only after March.” At present, the company’s delivery volume is only over 20,000 tons, which is less than 30% of the levels seen in previous years. Also influenced by the habit of stockpiling supplies*, the timing of stockpiling and shipment in the Northeast and Northwest regions is slightly earlier than that in the North China and East China regions. It is expected that after March, the volume of goods shipped to the Northeast and Northwest regions will decrease, with manufacturers shifting their shipments toward North China and East China. However, if delivery is disrupted later on, it is possible that there will be shortages of fertilizers and a lack of certain types of fertilizers during the spring fertilization period in North and East China. Currently, the amount of goods waiting to be shipped from factories is at least over 100,000 tons; in some cases, it can even reach 300,000–400,000 tons. ” 　　It is understood that due to industry-related conferences, the operating rate of diammonium fertilizers has not seen a significant increase at present. Manufacturers focus on placing orders at low prices in the early stages of production; market prices are high, resulting in few new orders being placed, and thus a situation of inverted market conditions. “Due to high pre-order volumes and a backlog of orders, shipments from the company are currently delayed, and there is a shortage of available stock in the North China market. ”Wang Lihui said, “There are mainly three reasons for this phenomenon: First, before the phosphorus compound fertilizer production and sales conference last year, dealers, influenced by past experience, had low expectations for diammonium fertilizers. The winter stockpiling markets in the Northeast and Northwest, which should have started procurement in October, saw almost no purchases at all. The delay in stockpiling led to delays in shipments.” ； Secondly, environmental regulations restricting production, along with the production cut agreements reached by enterprises following industry meetings, caused the operating rate of phosphate fertilizer plants to drop to 50-60% last winter ； Third, there is a shortage of freight cars for transporting fertilizers around the Spring Festival, which makes it difficult for manufacturing companies to fulfill their orders. ” 　　“**”Becoming a goal for the fertilizer market during spring plowing: Compared to previous years, there was no sharp decline in prices for either monoammonium phosphate or diammonium phosphate in this year’s fertilizer market. Even though the price of monoammonium phosphate saw a slight drop after the New Year, this did not affect the relatively stable market conditions that persisted thereafter. Sun Liang, sales manager at Hubei Ezhong Chemicals, said, “The decline in the price of monoammonium is a temporary drop.” First, at present, downstream companies mainly rely on using the high-priced inventory stockpiled in previous periods, resulting in a decrease in new orders ； Secondly, the fertilizer application season is yet to arrive, and market demand is low; this snowfall might help some areas enter the fertilizer application season ； Third, logistics were disrupted during the Spring Festival; some small factories in Hubei increased their shipments, leading to inventory buildup. To convert these assets into cash, they reduced prices. However, dealers tend to buy more when prices rise and less when they fall. Initially, the price for 55% ammonium sulfate was 1950–2000 yuan per ton, but now it is 1850–1900 yuan per ton; despite a decrease of 100 yuan per ton, orders have actually decreased. Furthermore, influenced and driven by factors such as transportation, costs, and exports, the price of monoammonium phosphate is expected to remain stable in March, with possible fluctuations but no significant swings. ” 　　Since the price increase last year, the diammonium market has remained at high levels. However, it is expected that there will be no further factors supporting price increases for diammonium in the future. Wang Lihui said, “There is little possibility of another significant price rise in the market this spring; for dealers and manufacturers, this represents a fairly favorable situation for development.” Current concerns in the spring market include: first, whether manufacturers will lower prices later on, as distributors usually purchase goods at a fixed price; if prices drop, the agrochemical industry will suffer huge losses ； Secondly, it is uncertain whether a large volume of goods will arrive in the North China market after March; there is currently no possibility of making a profit from future orders. The earlier and in larger quantities the early orders are delivered, the higher the profit potential will be. ”However, Wang Lihui currently says it is impossible to predict. A representative from a manufacturing company said that, considering the timing of fertilizer use and the advantages in transportation within the region, the manufacturers should be able to ensure timely delivery, thus facilitating the smooth progress of spring plowing. 　　Strong export advantages drive up domestic market prices. Recently, influenced by zero tariffs and production restrictions, the phosphate fertilizer export market has shown strong performance, with ample orders and rising prices. Although it is not yet the export season, the relatively high export prices have given manufacturers considerable confidence. According to relevant statistics, prices of both monoammonium and diammonium fertilizers are currently rising. The FOB price for diammonium fertilizer exports is 360–370 dollars per ton, while the FOB price for 55% monoammonium fertilizer in pellet form is 285–290 dollars per ton; the price for 60% pellets is 335–340 dollars per ton, and that for 63% pellets is 350–357 dollars per ton. 　　Sun Liang said, “Currently, the export price of monoammonium is about 100 yuan per ton higher than the price for domestic sales. This higher export price will also have a positive effect on the domestic market. Manufacturers can adjust the volumes of products sold domestically and for export based on actual conditions, thereby stabilizing market prices.” ” (Niu Liting)

Three main reasons for the decline in the price of monoammonium nitrate. Author/Source: Date: 2017-03-02. Clicks: 16. After late February, the market for monoammonium nitrate weakened, with prices dropping slightly. In the early stage, the mainstream ex-plant price for 55% powdered monoammonium was around 2,000 yuan per ton; currently, it is mostly between 1,900 and 1,950 yuan. Some large manufacturers are now offering prices below 1,900 yuan, while some smaller manufacturers have even seen transaction prices drop below 1,800 yuan for their lower-quality products. According to dealers in Hunan, the current price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate delivered to compound fertilizer factories is around 2,060 yuan; the price was once as high as 2,200 yuan, dropping by 140 yuan within two weeks. 　　There are three main reasons for the decline in the price of monoammonium: first, market demand is weak. Monoammonium is mainly used by compound fertilizer manufacturers, and its demand is greatly influenced by the purchasing patterns of these companies. Although we are now in the pre-phase for preparing fertilizers for spring plowing, the compound fertilizer market has started to develop slowly, and the sales pace is not as expected. Additionally, compound fertilizer manufacturers already have a considerable stock of low-cost ammonium nitrogen fertilizers that is sufficient for production, so there is no urgency to purchase new ones. 　　Second, the operating rate of diammonium enterprises has increased. At the end of last year, environmental inspections affected the production of monoammonium nitrogen; some small-scale plants for its production stopped operating altogether, and larger companies were also impacted to some extent. After the Spring Festival, production capacity was greatly released, with the production rate in Hubei rising to 60%, compared to around 35% at its lowest point earlier on. The increase in production has led to a surge in supply, while demand has not kept up, resulting in growing inventory pressure for companies. The market indicates that some large ammonium nitrate producers have inventory levels of 20,000 to 30,000 tons, while smaller companies also have inventory amounts approaching 10,000 tons. As a result, these companies are forced to reduce prices to sell their products; some have even introduced promotional measures offering guaranteed prices until the end of March or April. 　　Third, export conditions are average. Recently, international prices for monoammonium phosphate have risen; the CIF price for 55% granular monoammonium phosphate in Brazil is between $320 and $320, while the CIF price for 63% granular monoammonium phosphate is between $387 and $395. Faced with a sluggish domestic market, some companies have turned to the international market to increase exports. However, overall, international demand is fairly modest, and export prices do not offer much of a advantage over domestic prices; therefore, they will have little impact on the domestic market in the short term. (Report Team)

Internal reasons for the drop in prices of diammonium compounds: Pressure on some companies forces them to sell their stock quickly. Author/Source: China Agri-Media. Date: 2017-03-06. Clicks: 17. As February comes to an end and temperatures rise in various regions, the momentum in the spring plowing market begins to show, and the market trend will become clearer in March. This week, the price of diammonium remained stable at high levels, with neither upward nor downward movements showing sufficient momentum. It is expected that the diammonium market will remain at high levels throughout March, with market changes possibly occurring in late April. At present, the grassroots markets are starting to stock up, but due to lower deliveries this year compared to previous years, there is a temporary shortage of supplies in the market. On the export front, monoammonium and diammonium fertilizers are performing well. The high export prices and zero-tariff policies enable companies to achieve reasonable profit margins, and there is a sufficient supply of export orders. Monoammonium fertilizers, with their excellent cost-performance ratio, are very popular in the market; some manufacturers already have export orders scheduled until May. 　　Diammonium phosphate: Tight supply in the grassroots market. Throughout February, the diammonium phosphate market remained at high prices**, but transaction activity was low. Entering March, the grassroots markets in the northeast and northwest regions were the first to show signs of improvement. However, due to factors such as delayed stockpiling last year and low production rates resulting from environmental regulations, manufacturers have a large number of orders waiting to be fulfilled, which currently results in a shortage of supplies in the market. As more supplies arrive in the coming days, this situation will ease by the end of March. However, with so many uncertainties in the market, there is a possibility of supply shortages in this year’s spring plowing season. 　　In the spring, the demand for DAP in the market is mainly concentrated in the Northeast and Northwest regions. Prices are relatively high; in the Northeast region, the typical delivered price for 64% DAP is 2,650–2,800 yuan per ton. In Gansu, the typical delivered price ranges from 2,500 to 2,600 yuan per ton, while in Xinjiang it is 2,600–2,800 yuan per ton. 　　At present, although manufacturers are inclined to raise prices, demand has not yet fully recovered, and large orders placed by companies will gradually arrive in the future, resulting in insufficient support for price increases. Currently, the market supply and demand situation is more tight compared to last year, with shortages prevailing in the market; therefore, the possibility of a decline is low. 　　Yet, behind the stable market, turmoil lurks, with some companies reducing their prices. Zha Rihui, deputy general manager of Anhui Liuguo Chemical Marketing Company, believes: “This is an abnormal price drop in the market; it is certain large enterprises that, due to excessive inventory levels and an overemphasis on sales volume, adjust prices in advance in order to get rid of their stock and gain a competitive edge in the market.” Although this phenomenon occurs every year, rushing to sell goods at low prices at the beginning of March is too early and irrational. ” 　　Monoammonium phosphate: A contrast between granular and powdered forms. Since February, the powdered monoammonium phosphate market has shown weakness; high production levels and low transaction volumes have led to a slight decline in prices in this market. Regarding the reasons for the decline in the price of monoammonium phosphate this time, Shen Jungang, sales manager at Hebei Yiqun Fertilizer Industry, said, “It is the traders and manufacturers who have voluntarily reduced prices in an effort to stimulate the market.” Firstly, manufacturers had large inventories before the New Year, and production of ammonium nitrate did not stop after the New Year, resulting in an accumulation of inventory. To quickly clear inventory, secure working capital, and gain a market share, manufacturers sell products at low prices ； Secondly, downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers face poor sales, which results in large inventory levels of such fertilizers; this suppresses their enthusiasm for stockpiling and production, leading to reduced purchases of monoammonium fertilizers ； Once again, fertilizer manufacturers are operating at a slow pace due to environmental regulations ； Furthermore, low prices for agricultural products also dampen farmers’ enthusiasm for production. The adjustment of the planting structure has led to uncertainty regarding the quantity and type of fertilizers needed by the market, making it difficult to sell compound fertilizers. Although prices have dropped, orders for monoammonium continue to be placed; as larger manufacturers acquired large quantities earlier on, it is now mainly smaller manufacturers that place orders in smaller quantities. ” 　　However, driven by exports, the market for granular ammonium nitrate performed exceptionally well. Especially since the export season for diammonium compounds has not yet arrived, the export volume of ammonium phosphate granules is high and the prices are favorable; some larger companies already have export orders scheduled until the end of May. Shen Jungang said, “Under these circumstances, the prospects for ammonium monophosphate in the future remain positive.” ” 　　The capital chain has become a factor triggering market fluctuations. Although purchases have already begun at the grassroots level in the Northeast, and it is expected that diammonium nitrogen will remain stable in the short term, there are still many uncertainties in the market. A responsible official from a distribution and trading company in the northeast said, “The main obstacle affecting the sales in the fertilizer market remains the issue of funding. Firstly, the prices of agricultural products are low, resulting in a shortage of funds among farmers. Although fertilizers are essential, this situation affects their willingness to use them.” Secondly, dealers face difficulties in collecting payments; under the pressure from banks to repay debts, they are forced to sell products at low prices to obtain cash, which affects market stability. ” 　　The relevant person in charge of the enterprise believes that fluctuations in fertilizer prices affect distributors the most, as they are heavily influenced by costs and market conditions; farmers, on the other hand, are subject to relatively little impact and risk. As a vital requirement for the spring plowing season, the amount of chemical fertilizers used depends on the type of crops. From any perspective, it is unwise to avoid using fertilizers or to use them in insufficient amounts. Fertilization is an essential part for farmers to achieve high yields, and the resistance shown by farmers in the market seems to be exaggerated. 　　Exports: Both volume and price on the rise. In terms of the export market, improved international demand and reduced supply have led to rising prices. The FOB price for Chinese diammonium phosphate exports is 360–370 dollars per ton. Pakistan and India have both issued tenders; the CIF price in Pakistan is 375 dollars per ton, while the bid prices in India are around 380 dollars per ton. 　　In the monoammonium market, in China on FOB terms: 55% granules at $285–290 per ton, 60% granules at $335–340 per ton, and 63% granules at $350–357 per ton. Next month, international demand will remain decent, and coupled with the effect of zero tariffs on phosphate fertilizers in China, exports are expected to increase on a month-on-month basis. The international supply and demand situation is unlikely to improve, so prices will rise slightly. (Niu Liting)

Multiple factors at play drive growth in the compound fertilizer market Author/Source: JLCC Fertilizers Date: 2017-03-06 Clicks: 19 March has arrived, and spring plowing and sowing activities across the country are set to begin in full force. However, due to factors such as the continuous rise in winter storage prices and relatively low grain prices, dealers and end-users have limited capacity to stock up on fertilizers in advance. It is expected that in the near term, driven by the following factors, market sales may increase significantly. 　　On the one hand, demand from downstream sectors increases due to rigid needs. As the weather warms up, winter wheat in the north begins to turn green, while spring plowing starts gradually in the south. According to statistics, winter wheat in the southeastern part of the Northwest region, southern North China, and the Huanghuai area has entered the greening stage, resulting in an increased demand for fertilizers for this purpose. It is also a period when companies try to sell out their stock of such fertilizers. Recently, some companies have reported a noticeable increase in sales of these fertilizers. Additionally, the early rice along the coast of southeastern South China is in the sowing and sprouting stage, while the early rice in Hainan is in the sprouting to tillering stage ； Tobacco in the southwest region is in the sowing and sprouting stage, in the Jiangnan region it is in the stage from the fourth true leaf to the seventh true leaf, and in South China it is in the stage of transplanting and survival. As spring plowing begins and demand from downstream areas increases, it will drive significant sales in the market. 　　However, influenced by factors such as grain prices, the planting structure continues to adjust. Gansu entered the phase of preparing for spring plowing in late February, and it is estimated that the area devoted to spring sowing of crops across the province this year will reach 46.4 million mu, of which 31.15 million mu will be used for the sowing of grain crops. According to the survey on intentions for spring sowing, this year the province will further optimize the layout and structure of crops sown in spring. The area dedicated to corn cultivation is expected to decline, while the area for spring wheat will remain roughly the same as last year; the area devoted to potato cultivation is expected to increase. Among cash crops, vegetables, oilseeds, and medicinal herbs have increased, cotton and sugar beets have remained stable, while melons have decreased slightly. 　　On the other hand, as production enterprise policies were gradually adjusted, prices fell reasonably. Starting from late February, due to ongoing difficulties in making sales, companies began to lower their prices. Initially, pricing was determined on a case-by-case basis. By the end of the month, some companies tried out new pre-payment policies, including guaranteed interest rates, payment discounts, and promotional offers. The usual discount amounts ranged from 30 to 100 yuan per ton, which in turn contributed to a decrease in the ex-factory prices offered by these companies. Although many companies are still waiting and keeping prices stable, there is room for negotiation on actual orders, and some have plans to offer discounts in the near future. Overall, the introduction of new policies by manufacturing enterprises has contributed to a rational decline in prices, laying the foundation for smooth market turnover. 　　Third, as the earlier low-end inventory is cleared, dealers are actively increasing their stock levels. Affected by the high prices of fertilizers during the preparation period in recent years and the subsequent drop in prices at the time of use, dealers’ enthusiasm for winter stockpiling has declined, resulting in reduced levels of winter stock. This is especially true this year, as rising market prices have increased the pressure on dealers to accept higher prices. However, after the New Year, as the inventory of low-priced products from earlier periods is cleared, dealers will have a strong need to restock. Recently, with the adjustment of corporate policy prices, it is expected that there will be a significant increase in the amount of stock that distributors order. 　　Overall, it is expected that enthusiasm for market participation will increase in the near term, the trading atmosphere in the market will improve, and there may be concentrated increases in volume in certain areas. (Xu Shuxian)

Weekly Report on the Compound Fertilizer Market for the First Week of March – Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network – Date: 2017-03-06 – Clicks: 17. This week, the pricing offered by compound fertilizer manufacturers remained generally stable; a few high-end products came with promotional discounts of around 30–50 yuan per ton. Currently, the tentative ex-factory prices for 45% NCl (15:15:15) compound fertilizers are around 1800–2000 yuan per ton, while those for 45% S (15:15:15) compound fertilizers are around 2050–2250 yuan per ton. High-end products have prices in the range of 2350–2400 yuan per ton. Some manufacturers in the Northeast region have offered short-term winter storage prices, with the arrival price for 45% S (12-18-15) compound fertilizers being around 2230–2260 yuan per ton. This week, demand for compound fertilizers has seen a recovery. In the southern regions, work on preparing fertilizers for rice cultivation and economic crops is progressing rapidly; most companies have nearly completed their prior orders, and there is an increase in new orders. As a result, the operating rates of most compound fertilizer manufacturers remain high ； The demand for top-dressing wheat in the Central Plains region is nearing completion, while demand for fertilizer for corn is starting slowly. In Jilin and Liaoning provinces in the Eastern Three Provinces, about 50% of the market supply has been delivered; demand in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia has just begun to rise, with only around 20% of the market supply available at present. There are signs of a recovery in demand for compound fertilizers, with the operating rates of most large compound fertilizer manufacturers remaining around 80%. Although demand is gradually entering its peak season, prices of compound fertilizer raw materials remain low, especially the price of urea, which has dropped. This has led to a lack of confidence among some downstream users in making purchases, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm. As a result, a few companies have introduced preferential policies this week to encourage downstream buyers to make purchases. Regarding raw material costs: It is reported that the price of coal, one of the raw materials, has increased by 30–50 yuan. However, demand is weak; the urea market remains dominated by local supply. In Shandong province, the standard ex-factory price remains around 1650 yuan, while the price for lower-quality products is around 1610 yuan ； The prevailing ex-plant price for dry ammonium in the Tianjin area remains around 650 yuan; the production capacity of one factory has increased, allowing it to accept orders as usual ； In Hubei region, the mainstream ex-plant prices for 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate and 58% powdered monoammonium phosphate are around 1,900 yuan and 2,100 yuan respectively. New orders are performing very poorly, with most transactions being for small orders ； Starting from March 1, Yanchi Lake’s pricing has been increased by 30 yuan; the price for 60% potassium supplied to agents at the delivery site is 2,000 yuan, with downstream clients offering a rebate of around 70–80 yuan per ton for large orders that meet the required requirements ； Rumors suggest that SDIC Luojiu will raise its price by another 50 yuan in the near future; as a result, the delivery price for the 52% powder to agents will reach 2600 yuan. However, it is understood that sales among agents have been slow recently, with most still fulfilling the old orders at prices of 2500 yuan or less. Overall, demand for compound fertilizers has shown a slight improvement. Companies are finishing up existing orders, and new orders are increasing slowly; as a result, the operating rate remains high. However, declining raw material prices are dampening downstream manufacturers’ confidence in stocking up on fertilizers. The outlook for compound fertilizers in the coming period remains uncertain, with there still a possibility of further drops in prices for high-end products. In the future, some companies will introduce policies related to summer fertilizers, with discount amounts expected to be around 50-100 yuan.

Weekly Report on the Compound Fertilizer Market for the First Week of March
Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network
Date: 2017-03-06
Clicks: 17

This week, the pricing offered by compound fertilizer manufacturers remained generally stable. A few high-end products came with promotional offers, with price reductions of around 30–50 yuan per ton. Currently, the tentative ex-factory prices for 45%N Cl (15:15:15) compound fertilizers are around 1800–2000 yuan per ton, while those for 45%S (15:15:15) compound fertilizers are around 2050–2250 yuan per ton. High-end products have prices in the range of 2350–2400 yuan per ton. Some manufacturers in the Northeast region have offered short-term prices for winter storage; the arrival prices for 45%S (12-18-15) compound fertilizers are around 2230–2260 yuan per ton. This week, demand for compound fertilizers has seen a recovery. In the southern regions, work on preparing fertilizers for rice cultivation and economic crops is progressing rapidly; most companies have nearly completed their prior orders, and there is an increase in new orders. As a result, the operating rates of most compound fertilizer manufacturers remain high ； The demand for top-dressing wheat in the Central Plains region is nearing completion, while demand for fertilizer for corn is starting slowly. In Jilin and Liaoning provinces in the Eastern Three Provinces, about 50% of the market supply has been delivered; demand in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia has just begun to rise, with only around 20% of the market supply available at present. There are signs of a recovery in demand for compound fertilizers, with the operating rates of most large compound fertilizer manufacturers remaining around 80%. Although demand is gradually entering its peak season, prices of compound fertilizer raw materials remain low, especially the price of urea, which has dropped. This has led to a lack of confidence among some downstream users in making purchases, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm. As a result, a few companies have introduced preferential policies this week to encourage downstream buyers to make purchases. Regarding raw material costs: It is reported that the price of coal, one of the raw materials, has increased by 30–50 yuan. However, demand is weak; the urea market remains dominated by local supply. In Shandong province, the standard ex-factory price remains around 1650 yuan, while the price for lower-quality products is around 1610 yuan ； The prevailing ex-plant price for dry ammonium in the Tianjin area remains around 650 yuan; the production capacity of one factory has increased, allowing it to accept orders as usual ； In Hubei region, the mainstream ex-plant prices for 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate and 58% powdered monoammonium phosphate are around 1,900 yuan and 2,100 yuan respectively. New orders are performing very poorly, with most transactions being for small orders ； Starting from March 1, Yanchi Lake’s pricing has been increased by 30 yuan; the price for 60% potassium supplied to agents at the delivery site is 2,000 yuan, with downstream clients offering a rebate of around 70–80 yuan per ton for large orders that meet the required requirements ； Rumors suggest that SDIC Luojiu will raise its price by another 50 yuan in the near future; as a result, the delivery price for the 52% powder to agents will reach 2600 yuan. However, it is understood that sales among agents have been slow recently, with most still fulfilling the old orders at prices of 2500 yuan or less. Overall, demand for compound fertilizers has shown a slight improvement. Companies are finishing up existing orders, and new orders are increasing slowly; as a result, the operating rate remains high. However, declining raw material prices are dampening downstream manufacturers’ confidence in stocking up on fertilizers. The outlook for compound fertilizers in the coming period remains uncertain, with there still a possibility of further drops in prices for high-end products. In the future, some companies will introduce policies related to summer fertilizers, with discount amounts expected to be around 50-100 yuan.