Weekly Report on the Urea Market for the Third Week of November

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Over the weekend last week, a few companies in Shandong and other regions saw reduced sales pressure as they were able to collect payments at lower prices. Moreover, with the phosphorus-based fertilizer conference coming to an end, fertilizer manufacturers expected to be able to purchase urea as raw material based on the amount of money they had received. As a result, urea producers in Shandong and other areas decided to raise their prices; some of them increased their prices by 20–40 yuan per ton (the same unit is used throughout)； However, since the beginning of this week, the purchasing activity by compound fertilizer manufacturers has been moderate. The enterprises in Shanxi that have resumed production have been accepting payments at low prices (the price of some low-quality products is only around 1,620 yuan). The overall market situation for urea remains weak; since the start of this week, urea manufacturers in areas such as Shandong’s Lianghe region have again lowered their prices. Only today did a few enterprises in Henan raise their prices by 10–20 yuan (mainly due to a slight rebound in prices following the low-price payments from enterprises in Shanxi). Compared to last weekend, the main ex-factory prices of urea in the Lianghe area of Shandong have dropped by 5-15 yuan, while the purchase prices in Linyi... (the omitted details can be found in the Zhongfei Net member area; the same applies hereafter). Recent purchasing conditions have improved slightly compared to earlier periods ； The mainstream ex-factory prices in the Shanxi region have dropped to 1,640–1,750 yuan; high-end prices are not useful for reference. During this period, some companies accepted a large number of orders for external delivery at low prices in advance ； The mainstream ex-factory prices in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions remain stable, while those of some smaller enterprises show slight fluctuations; overall transaction volumes remain average ； The mainstream ex-factory prices in Hubei region remain stable for now, with one major manufacturer having resumed normal production ； In the markets of the southeast region, the wholesale prices of urea remain relatively stable; due to a lack of agricultural demand, most agrochemical companies have no plans to purchase urea ； In the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region, the mainstream ex-factory prices remain stable. Affected by competition from low-priced urea supplied from Shanxi, the ex-factory price of a major factory in Shaanxi dropped by 30 yuan. Meanwhile, a major factory in Gansu has a stock of over 10,000 tons ready for shipment, and its ex-factory price has seen a slight increase ； After the increase in the main factory prices in Sichuan and Chongqing, although there is limited enthusiasm for purchases on the downstream side, urea sales remain satisfactory due to tight natural gas supplies and the fact that some manufacturing enterprises are operating at reduced capacity ； The markets in Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangdong, and Guangxi have seen little change; this week, the arrival prices of urea from other provinces in the Guangdong and Guangxi markets rebounded slightly after a decline. In the Xinjiang region, the mainstream ex-factory prices have increased by 50 yuan at the lower end; today, an enterprise in southern Xinjiang raised its ex-factory price by 50 yuan. This enterprise continues to control the number of orders it accepts, while another company belonging to the Yihua Group has resumed production, with an ex-factory price of 1400 yuan ； After the price increases imposed by enterprises in northern Xinjiang, new orders have been average; most of them continue to focus on fulfilling previous orders from local farmers. Some enterprises say they may send products to other markets in the future to alleviate sales pressure and thus maintain stable prices for domestic sales within Xinjiang. The mainstream ex-factory prices in Inner Mongolia remain stable, while the urea market in other provinces is weak, which has also had a certain impact on the sales of some companies ； The mainstream ex-factory prices in the Northeast region remain stable, while the progress of winter storage downstream is slow. Regarding large-grain products, the mainstream ex-factory prices in Shandong, Hebei, and Shanxi have dropped by 10–50 yuan. International urea prices continue to fall across the board. ……. Data from China Fertilizer Network shows that the total weekly inventory of urea at major ports in China, including Yantai, decreased by approximately 19,200 tons. Overall, the operating rate of compound fertilizers continued to rise slightly (the operating rate of large manufacturers increased by about 1.4 percentage points to around 54.5%). The raw materials purchased at low prices earlier by these companies have been mostly used in production; going forward, they may purchase urea and other materials depending on their cash flow. However, the operating rate in the urea industry has seen a rebound (the operating rate for urea increased by about 2 percentage points to…) ； International urea prices continue to fall significantly, increasing the export pressure on urea in our country ； With strict environmental regulations becoming the norm in the country, downstream industrial production has been severely restricted in many areas; the agricultural sector continues to adopt a wait-and-see approach. It is expected that overall urea prices will remain stable but on a downward trend, with some companies possibly being forced to lower their prices ； In the long term, attention will still need to be paid to changes in the operating capacity of the urea industry, trends in coal prices, and further developments in environmental inspections.