Potassium Fertilizers from The Lion King: Who doesn’t want to relive a classic?

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Potassium Fertilizers from The Lion King: Who doesn’t want to relive a classic? Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2019-07-17 Clicks: 22 These days, \"The Lion King\" has become popular again; this film is a remake of the classic animation from over 20 years ago. I was completely fascinated by it when I was a child. I have to say, classics are truly classics! Who doesn’t want to relive the classics? Potassium chloride wants to too! 　　When it comes to the \"classic\" periods for potassium chloride, they are the \"peak performance\" in 2007-2008, the \"further ascent\" in 2010-2011, and the \"return to glory\" in 2016-2018. 　　Reaching its peak: From the second half of 2007 until the end of the third quarter of 2008, over a period of just over a year, the price of potassium chloride at ports soared from slightly over 2,000 yuan per ton to around 5,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 150%! The reason for this is closely related to the financial tsunami that swept across the world at that time. At that time, in 2008, the price of large-scale contracts for potassium chloride imports soared by $400 compared to 2007! Yes, you read that right – just this increase alone is much higher than the current contract price of $290! 　　Reaching new heights: From the second half of 2010 until August 2011, over a period of just over a year, the price of potassium chloride at ports rose from around 2,300 yuan to about 3,300 yuan, an increase of over 40%! This round of sharp rise is the result of a combination of factors, including a significant increase in international potash prices, tight production and transportation of domestic potash, as well as market speculation. 　　Regaining its glory: From after the National Day holiday in 2016 until the end of 2018, during this prolonged upward trend that lasted just over two years, the price of potassium chloride at ports rose from around 1,700 yuan to about 2,500 yuan, an increase of 47%! There are mainly two reasons for this round of repeated yet persistent long-term upward trend: first, the five-year period of weakness that preceded it, and second, the significant improvement in the selling capabilities under intense pressure. 　　It’s a pity that the above can only be considered “memories,” not truly “revisits.” Since the beginning of 2019, port prices for potassium chloride have continued to drop by around 300 units, and the current lowest prices are now slightly below the import cost. Do people who use potassium chloride have a chance to \"relive\" the classics? It can’t be said that it doesn’t exist; it’s just that the chances seem low for now. Believe me, this isn’t nonsense; whether it can be achieved depends mainly on two factors. One is the issue of delays in negotiating large-scale contracts and the extent to which imports will decrease before that happens, and the other is the problem of reduced production of domestic potassium and its ability to recover. As for demand, I believe that as long as the above two factors do not escalate, this key factor that affects the market will not have much impact in the near future. But once the first two factors occur, demand will naturally arise; and when all three factors occur at the same time, it becomes quite possible to \"revisit\" the classics. 　　The long-winded words above are merely to prove that that statement isn’t nonsense; please remember that the important part is the second half, “It seems unlikely for now.” If the market improves in the future, the likely sequence of events will be: a decline in import volumes, with further reductions; a decrease in stock levels at ports, with even further declines; delays in large-scale contracts, with additional delays; eventually, the impact of reduced domestic potassium production begins to show itself; followed by speculation about possible price increases for large-scale contracts, then speculation driven by reluctance to sell, subsequent price increases domestically, and finally the signing of large-scale contracts. But setting aside the possibility of further changes in the subsequent stages, even the initial reduction in import volumes – if that reduction isn’t very significant, or even if it is significant – is unlikely to have a major impact in the first one or two months, after all, demand for potassium chloride in autumn isn’t high, and inventory levels at the ports remain quite high. 　　Therefore, this article does not discuss the specific current situation of the market nor does it predict a definite future. The author simply wants to say that anything is possible in the future, but it’s best for us to focus on the present: there’s no need to rush; everything is still within reach. The situation regarding potassium chloride prices is unlikely to improve in July, so let’s wait and observe in August and September! 　　(Adu)