China’s comprehensive index for wholesale fertilizer prices declined slightly

Thread Content

The comprehensive index of wholesale fertilizer prices in China declined slightly. Author/Source: China Agricultural Means of Production Distribution Association. Date: 2019-08-01. Clicks: 5. http://my.fert.cn/attached/image/20190801/20190801142453_30.jpg. Recently (from July 22 to July 26), the comprehensive index of wholesale fertilizer prices in China saw a slight decline. On July 29, the China Fertilizer Wholesale Price Index (CFCI) stood at 2198.03 points, down 10.86 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.49% ； An increase of 39.90 points year-on-year, representing a growth rate of 1.85% ； It dropped by 180.81 points from the base period, representing a decline of 7.60%. http://my.fert.cn/attached/image/20190801/20190801142517_952.jpg On July 29, the China Compound Fertilizer Retail Price Index (CCRI) was 2465.94 points, down by 6.03 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.24% ； An increase of 35.26 points on a year-on-year basis, representing a growth rate of 1.45% ； It rose by 19.23 points compared to the base period, representing a growth rate of 2.51%. 　　Supply situation: In terms of nitrogen fertilizers, the overall operating rate of urea manufacturers remains above 70%, with companies alternating between shutting down and resuming production, the latter being more common. In terms of phosphate fertilizers, the overall operating rate of diammonium fertilizer manufacturers declined slightly to around 58%, mainly due to companies reducing production in order to maintain prices, which kept the overall operating rate at a low level. Regarding potassium fertilizers, the delivery price for the 60% powder crystal grade of the salt lake-based product is 2,350 yuan per ton, with a discount of 20 yuan per ton ； Port potassium inventories continue to rise, currently staying above 2.5 million tons, while prices are falling ； Trade in potassium for border trade is sluggish; market supply is tight, and prices remain strong. Regarding compound fertilizers, the pre-collection phase for autumn shipments of these fertilizers is now coming to an end. Companies that were shut down for maintenance will gradually resume operations, but due to environmental regulations and weak demand, the overall operating rate of compound fertilizer manufacturers remains low. 　　Demand situation: Regarding nitrogen fertilizers, demand for urea has decreased, with agricultural demand being at a low level during this period ； Industrial demand has declined, mainly due to the closure of rubber sheet factories in the Linyi area. Additionally, the low operating rates of compound fertilizer manufacturers have further reduced the demand for urea. Regarding phosphate fertilizers, demand in the domestic market for diammonium fertilizers is weak, so companies focus their sales efforts on export markets ； In terms of export markets, companies are primarily reducing production to maintain prices, which has led to a stabilization of prices. Regarding potassium fertilizers, market demand increased in the autumn, but the operating rates of compound fertilizer manufacturers remained low, resulting in limited demand for potassium fertilizers. Regarding compound fertilizers, the advance orders in the autumn market have largely been completed, and downstream distributors remain fairly active in making purchases. 　　International Market Overall, international nitrogen fertilizer prices have declined slightly, with weak market demand. Demand in Asia and Europe is moderate, the Brazilian market has not yet entered its peak fertilizer usage period, and export prices for urea from China have dropped slightly. International phosphate fertilizer prices have generally declined, while China’s export prices for diammonium phosphate remain stable. International potassium fertilizer prices have seen slight declines; prices for granular potassium in Brazil have dropped, while prices in Southeast Asia and Europe remain stable. There is no news yet regarding any large-scale contracts for potassium fertilizer in China. 　　Future outlook: In terms of the nitrogen fertilizer market, the operating rate of urea manufacturers is expected to remain high ； On the demand side, agricultural demand is in a low season, while industrial demand is likely to increase as fertilizer manufacturers see improved sales and higher production levels ； In summary, urea prices are expected to remain largely stable in the short term. 　　In terms of the phosphate fertilizer market, demand for diammonium phosphate in the domestic market is limited during the autumn season ； In terms of export markets, the export prices of diammonium phosphate in China have tended to stabilize, with market confidence having increased to some extent ； Raw material prices remain weak and stable ； In summary, ammonium diammonium prices are expected to remain generally stable in the short term. 　　In terms of the potassium fertilizer market, current port inventory levels of potassium are high, demand is relatively weak, and there is considerable pressure to consume these inventories. It is expected that potassium chloride prices will remain stable at low levels in the short term. 　　In terms of the compound fertilizer market, as the pre-sales in the autumn season come to an end and companies begin to ship their products, the overall operational rate of compound fertilizer manufacturers is set to increase ； In terms of raw materials, urea prices have declined, the price of monoammonium nitrate remains stable, and potassium fertilizer prices continue to show a slight stability, which has reduced the support for the cost of compound fertilizers ； In summary, compound fertilizer prices are expected to remain weak in the short term. (Zhou Yuqing)