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China’s comprehensive index of fertilizer wholesale prices declined slightly _ Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 11-07-2019 Clicks: 232 Recently (from October 28 to November 1), China’s comprehensive index of fertilizer wholesale prices dropped slightly. On November 4, the China Fertilizer Wholesale Price Index (CFCI) was 2,078.81 points, down 5.30 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.25% ； A decrease of 245.98 points on a year-on-year basis, representing a decline of 10.58% ； It dropped by 300.03 points from the base period, representing a decline of 12.61%. On November 4, the China Compound Fertilizer Retail Price Index (CCRI) was 2,459.79 points, down 11.72 points on a month-on-month basis, representing a decline of 0.47% ； A decrease of 30.12 points on a year-on-year basis, representing a decline of 1.21% ； It rose by 13.08 points compared to the base period, representing a growth rate of 2.51%. Supply situation: In terms of nitrogen fertilizers, the overall operating rate of urea manufacturers has increased slightly, to around 63% ； The operating rate of coal-based enterprises has increased, while that of gas-based enterprises has declined slightly. In terms of phosphate fertilizers, the overall operating rate of diammonium fertilizer manufacturers has declined to around 62%. Regarding potassium fertilizers, the arrival price for 60% powdery crystals of the salt lake-based product is 2200 yuan per ton ； Port potassium inventory remains above 3 million tons, resulting in significant inventory pressure; sales are mainly handled through small orders ； Supply of potassium for border trade has not yet resumed, and there is virtually no spot inventory available in the market. In terms of compound fertilizers, affected by weak market demand, there has been an increase in shutdowns for maintenance among these companies recently, leading to a decline in their operational rates. Demand situation: Regarding nitrogen fertilizers, the market demand for urea remains weak ； Agricultural demand is weak ； In terms of industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizer manufacturers has declined, purchases by plywood factories are limited, and overall demand for urea remains weak. Regarding phosphate fertilizers, the autumn market for diammonium fertilizers has ended, and the winter storage market has not yet started; demand is low and there is a strong atmosphere of caution among buyers ； The export market is in off-season, with only a few new orders being placed. Regarding potassium fertilizers, demand in the Northeast market has seen a slight recovery ； Compound fertilizer manufacturers are operating at low levels, resulting in weak demand for potassium fertilizers. Regarding compound fertilizers, the autumn market has closed and winter storage has not yet begun, so market demand is relatively weak. International Market International nitrogen fertilizer prices are on the decline, mainly due to weak demand for urea in the international market ； India is about to issue tenders, which could provide some support for urea prices. International phosphate fertilizer prices remain weak, market demand remains low, and China’s exports of diammonium phosphate are minimal. The international potash market remains in a state of supply exceeding demand, with prices declining slightly. Future outlook: In terms of the nitrogen fertilizer market, with the arrival of the heating season and increased environmental regulations, the operation of urea production plants may be restricted, leading to a reduction in market supply and thus favorable conditions for urea prices ； On the demand side, domestic demand for urea is generally weak; agricultural demand is at a low level during this period. As for industrial demand, compound fertilizer manufacturers and plywood factories, affected by environmental regulations restricting production, have limited demand for urea ； Indian tenders may benefit Chinese urea exports ； In summary, urea prices are expected to remain weak in the short term. In the phosphate fertilizer market, the supply of diammonium phosphate has decreased slightly, while demand remains weak ； In terms of raw materials, the price of sulfur has declined, while the prices of synthetic ammonia and phosphate rock remain stable; overall, this has led to a slight reduction in the support provided for the cost of diammonium fertilizers ； Prices of diammonium fertilizers are expected to remain weak in the short term. In terms of the potassium fertilizer market, there remains an oversupply situation in the domestic market at present, with weak demand. It is expected that potassium chloride prices will remain stable but at a low level in the short term, and there is still some room for decline. In terms of the compound fertilizer market, it is currently in the transition period between autumn and winter, with weak market demand ； The price of raw material urea continues to decline, while the prices of ammonium and potassium fertilizers remain relatively stable, reducing the support for the cost of compound fertilizers ； It is expected that the price of compound fertilizers will remain weak in the short term.