Thread Content
At present, spring plowing and farming have entered a critical period, and the supply and price of fertilizers are directly related to the vital interests of farmers and **food security. Recently, international geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to severe fluctuations in the global fertilizer market and soaring prices. Against this backdrop, can the fertilizer supply for spring plowing in our country be ensured? What is the current status of the domestic nitrogen fertilizer industry? In response to industry concerns, \"Agricultural Inputs Herald\" conducted an exclusive interview with the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association under the theme of \"Ensuring Supply for Spring Plowing: China’s Strength\", analyzing in detail the current international market situation, the solid foundation of China’s nitrogen fertilizer industry, and the various effective measures taken to ensure an adequate supply of fertilizers for spring plowing. International urea prices may continue to rise. Internationally, the Middle East is the largest exporter of urea in the world, with annual exports amounting to around 25 million tons. Of these, Iran accounts for 40% to 45% of Middle East exports. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas shipments and around 30% of its fertilizer shipments. The outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict has had a severe impact on urea production and logistics trade in Middle Eastern countries such as Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, leading to a reconfiguration of international urea prices and trade patterns. Before the US-Israel-Iran war, international urea prices were generally between $400 and $450 per ton (the same applies below). Recently, international urea prices have risen significantly. Reportedly, the current international price of urea has reached $700–750 per ton. If the fighting continues, international urea prices could keep rising. Domestic supply can fully meet consumer demand. China is the world’s largest producer of nitrogen fertilizers, accounting for about one-third of the global production. According to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, in 2025, the national production of nitrogen fertilizers was 52.563 million tons (in terms of pure nitrogen), representing a year-on-year increase of 6.8% ； The national urea production amounted to 72.013 million tons in terms of physical volume, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. According to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, 2026 will remain a period of significant new project development in the nitrogen fertilizer sector. It is expected that 5.07 million tons per year of urea production capacity will come online, raising the total urea supply capacity to 77.5 million tons per year. Based on the current average production rate and daily output in China, urea production is set to reach a new high of 76.5 million tons by 2026, while nitrogen fertilizer production is expected to amount to 54 million tons of pure nitrogen. Whether it is nitrogen fertilizer or urea, the domestic supply can fully meet consumer demand. It is worth noting that the raw materials used for nitrogen fertilizer production abroad are mostly natural gas, while in China the main raw material is coal; nitrogen fertilizers produced from coal account for about 80%, whereas those produced from natural gas account for about 20%. China’s coal supply mainly comes from domestic sources, so it is less affected by the international market. Moreover, coal used in fertilizer production accounts for only about 2% of the country’s total coal consumption. Although natural gas relies heavily on imports, the volume of offshore natural gas imports from the Middle East is around 30 billion cubic meters, which is less than 10% of the country’s total natural gas consumption. At the same time, natural gas consumed in nitrogen fertilizer production in our country accounts for no more than 3% of the total domestic natural gas consumption. Even if natural gas imports decrease, the impact on China’s overall natural gas supply will be limited. Our country is fully capable of ensuring a stable supply of coal and natural gas for fertilizer production. **Historically, great emphasis has been placed on ensuring an adequate supply of fertilizers for spring plowing. Recently, Premier Li Qiang issued important directives regarding the need to ensure a proper supply of fertilizers and stabilize prices during the spring plowing season. The relevant departments issued the \"Notice on Ensuring the Supply and Stabilizing Prices of Fertilizers for Spring Plowing in 2026 and Throughout the Year\" as well as the \"Minimum Production Plans for Key Fertilizer Manufacturers in 2026\", urging efforts to ensure the availability of raw materials such as coal and natural gas needed for fertilizer production, in order to maintain a stable supply and prices of fertilizers for spring plowing. To ensure a stable supply and prices of nitrogen fertilizers, the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association has recently strictly followed **relevant directives, implementing various policies aimed at maintaining a stable supply and prices. There are mainly the following aspects: First, to urge key urea producers to meet the annual minimum urea production target for 2026 ； Secondly, a guideline price for urea at the factory level during the spring plowing season in 2026 was issued. Key urea producers were urged to send out a notice to urea distributors and traders titled \"Notice on Further Implementing Measures to Ensure an Adequate Supply and Stable Prices of Fertilizers during the Spring Plowing Season,\" calling on these distributors to sell at fair prices, accelerate the delivery of goods, avoid hoarding and withholding sales, and ensure that domestically produced fertilizers are supplied first to the domestic market. These measures received positive responses from numerous urea producers and distributors. At present, the supply of urea is sufficient, and prices remain relatively stable. According to statistics from the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, last week the average ex-factory price of urea across the country was 1,777 yuan, a decrease of 0.06% on a year-on-year basis. Overall, during this year’s spring plowing season, there will be an adequate supply of nitrogen fertilizer resources in the country, so there is no need to worry about a shortage of such fertilizers throughout the year. If raw material prices remain stable and logistics are smooth, urea prices will tend to stay stable during the spring plowing period. Implementing measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices for spring plowing in three areas. Going forward, to ensure a stable supply of fertilizers and steady prices for spring plowing, the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association will focus its efforts on the following three areas. First, fully leverage the role of a bridge and link. Actively seek support from **the relevant departments to ensure a stable supply of raw materials for nitrogen fertilizer production, thereby enabling nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers to operate normally. Second, organize the transportation and distribution of nitrogen fertilizers properly. The distribution of nitrogen fertilizer production enterprises in our country does not match exactly with the consumption pattern; production is concentrated in regions rich in coal resources such as Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Shanxi. However, fertilizer use is primarily concentrated in regions like the Northeast, North China, and East China. It is therefore necessary to transport the products produced in these areas to the places where they are consumed in a timely manner. The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association will actively bring up the issues related to transportation to the relevant authorities, and ensure proper logistics for the transport of fertilizer. Third, strengthen industry self-discipline. Since 2025, the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association has been strengthening industry self-discipline by establishing a urea self-regulation mechanism, guiding enterprises to ensure domestic supply first before exporting in appropriate amounts, and requiring that domestic market prices remain stable during export periods. Thanks to these efforts, despite China exporting 9.43 million tons of nitrogen fertilizers and 4.89 million tons of urea in 2025, domestic market prices did not rise as a result of these exports. Since the beginning of this year, the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association has called on the industry to ensure that domestically produced fertilizers are given priority in supplying the domestic market during the spring plowing season. Regarding the use of fertilizers for spring plowing by farmers, the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association recommends: act calmly and without haste, and purchase only what is needed. With an ample supply of nitrogen fertilizers and stable prices, it is recommended to purchase them in appropriate amounts as the crops approach their peak growth stage. Choose legitimate channels. Go to reputable agricultural supply stores and purchase products from legitimate manufacturers for better quality assurance. Beware of the \"scam groups\". Be extra cautious of those who give lectures under the guise of being \"agricultural technology experts\" and promote products on-site, to avoid buying fake or low-quality fertilizers.