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Numerous fertilizer prices have been raised; urea prices may rise again. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network. Date: March 9, 2020. Click-through rate: 7. As the epidemic gradually comes under control, transportation restrictions have also been eased to some extent, and the supply of agricultural supplies for spring plowing has gradually increased. Although industry insiders had anticipated a delay in demand, unexpectedly, since early March, fertilizer prices have seen successive rounds of increases. Compared to pre-Chinese New Year levels, urea prices have risen by 150 yuan per ton. In particular, large-particle urea has seen particularly strong price growth. The price difference between large- and small-particle urea produced by the same manufacturer now exceeds 200 yuan per ton, which clearly indicates just how robust the demand for large-particle urea is in the market. At present, the standard ex-factory price of urea in Shandong is between 1,790 and 1,800 yuan. In Linyi, fertilizer manufacturers are willing to purchase urea at around 1,860 yuan per unit. In Hebei, the standard ex-factory price of urea is 1,770–1,790 yuan, while in Henan it is 1,780–1,810 yuan. In Shanxi, the standard ex-factory price of urea is 1,720 yuan, with larger-grained urea costing 1,920 yuan. In some areas where transportation is hindered, prices have also risen. It is reported that transportation restrictions in Xinjiang remain severe at present, yet prices there have still increased somewhat; the current standard ex-factory price of urea there is 1,460–1,600 yuan. Some industry experts believe that urea prices may continue to rise in the near future, for several reasons. Firstly, there is still demand from the market. Affected by this wave of the epidemic, compound fertilizer manufacturers had relatively low production rates in the early stages. However, due to prolonged shortages of raw materials, and with many of these companies resuming operations in recent times, inventory levels remain low. Even though urea manufacturers are producing over 154,000 tons per day at present, the onset of spring season and the resulting demand for fertilizer mean that their supply capacity is somewhat insufficient. As a result, some companies are now controlling payments for urea orders pending shipment ； Recently, with the entry of large traders into the market, the already high prices of urea have seen further increases ； The operation of industrial board factories is also gradually resuming. Given current market demand, there is still support for urea demand in the short term; even if production rates increase in the future, companies will face relatively low sales pressure, and prices may rise. Secondly, the overall situation for fertilizers is relatively good. Both the phosphate ammonium market and the potash fertilizer market this year, as well as the compound fertilizer market, are showing an upward trend at present: phosphate ammonium, which was neglected just a year ago, has now become a highly sought-after product that companies compete to purchase. Due to limited supply in the Hubei region, it is not unusual for the factory price of 55% phosphate ammonium to reach 2000 yuan. Although the demand in the secondary phosphate ammonium market is not as high as that for primary phosphate ammonium, the prices upon arrival in various areas in the Northeast have risen by around 100 yuan since before the Spring Festival, and these prices are likely to continue to increase as settlements proceed ； Both the market prices of potassium fertilizers and compound fertilizers have seen a significant increase compared to the levels before the Spring Festival. With the start of spring plowing in China, the fertilizer market is likely to remain stable in the short term, although urea prices might see further increases. In summary, since it will take some time for urea supplies to reach various markets, while demand is releasing in large volumes, the intensity of demand in the large-grain market is likely to remain high in the short term. However, after late March, the daily production of urea could exceed 160,000 tons; moreover, as supplies arrive gradually from different locations, the intensity of demand for urea should ease somewhat. It is expected that urea prices may continue to rise before late March. (Wu Wenchao)