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The long holiday is coming to an end! Will fertilizer prices rise? Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2020-10-09 Clicks: 3 Over the past two years, long holidays have remained long holidays; although many professionals continue to work hard in the fertilizer industry, the market trends generally follow those of the majority who take time off for holidays. Writing articles during the holidays is truly a nightmare! Messages were sent out early to inquire about the working schedule, but the replies indicated that work would resume on the 9th or that things would remain as they were before the holiday. What am I supposed to do now? Sigh… I heard that the urea market in India is set to play a significant role again; there might be a demand for nearly 4 million tons of imports by the end of the year. Customs data show that China’s total urea exports from January to August were only 2.1 million tons, a significant 22% decline on a year-on-year basis. So this must be the most delightful news during the holidays for those urea manufacturers who have recently been particularly fond of sticking close to their competitors Of those 4 million tons, how much will come from our country, and what impact will it have on the domestic market? Let’s wait and see at our own pace. Among those who replied today, one again asked about diammonium. Actually, not many people have been asking about diammonium nitrate recently. A long time ago, when I talked with some large-scale traders in the Northeast market, they said that the price of diammonium nitrate hasn’t changed much over the past few years, and there are no obvious signs of shortages at the moment; so it’s better to wait before making a decision. Some in the industry believe that diammonium fertilizer manufacturers have been quite strong recently; thanks to good export volumes and prices, they keep calling for price increases. Customs data show that from January to August, China’s total exports of diammonium phosphate amounted to about 3.6 million tons, a decrease of nearly 13% on a year-on-year basis. Perhaps, ‘good’ is just good, that’s all? Regarding potassium chloride, some colleagues brought up the rumor that the price of 62% powder from Port Damao could reach 2100. Others said they had sufficient stock and were waiting for prices to rise further, while there were also some unscrupulous individuals claiming that there was a shortage and price drops in certain markets ahead of the holiday. The issues reported by the latter are factual and relate to border trade; however, it should be just a temporary issue before the holidays. For now, the strong upward trend in potassium chloride prices will likely remain the dominant factor in the market in the near term. At present, the sellers in the potassium chloride market are essentially in an unbeatable position, which could lead to two outcomes: first, strong price increases as is already happening; second, significant fluctuations in prices later on. Therefore, the author has always advised that those involved in transactions related to potassium chloride should try to take action as early as possible. This holiday was almost unaffected by the pandemic; if not everything is set to pick up again, at least there is a sense of economic recovery, and it seems that things are moving in a positive direction. With these three major fertilizer types – one aiming to raise prices, another calling for price increases, and the third already driving up prices continuously – does this indicate that prices in the winter storage fertilizer market are about to soar? Short-term price increases will surely be the dominant trend, but even though the future looks promising, the path ahead is always full of difficulties. Amidst all the misleading claims, we should decide whether to get involved or not; after all, our minds aren’t at their best during holidays. Let’s discuss this again after the holidays, as the phosphorus fertilizer conference is approaching – yet another important moment for waiting and observing. (Adu)