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Urea price trends across China on May 13 Author/Source: Yuege Agri-Materials Website Date: 2020-05-13 Clicks: 44 The domestic urea market remains weak, with a poor trading atmosphere; downstream buyers are relatively pessimistic, showing little enthusiasm for stockpiling. Manufacturers face difficulties in securing new orders, and some of them continue to reduce prices in an attempt to attract customers. On the demand side, domestic demand has not shown any improvement yet. Fertilizer manufacturers producing high-nitrogen fertilizers are gradually reducing such production, which leads to a decrease in the demand for urea as a raw material. The operating capacity of panel manufacturing plants is low, with production being carried out on an as-needed basis. In the agricultural sector, demand is low during the off-season in many areas, and purchases are scattered, resulting in limited support for the market. On the international front, the bidding results in India were announced on May 8; 14 companies submitted bids, with a total bidding volume of 2.393 million tons. The price on the east coast was 231.90 USD per ton CFR, which translates to approximately 1,530 yuan per ton when adjusted for delivery costs at the port. The possibility of supply from within India is low. The domestic urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term. Shandong Hualu Hengsheng: medium-sized particles at 1570 (stable), large-sized particles at 1650 (a 50% reduction); Hebei Dongguang: small-sized particles at 1600 (a 10% reduction), large-sized particles at 1680 (a 50% reduction); Henan Xinxianxin: 1620 (stable); Shanxi Fengxi: 1520 (a 20% reduction); Jiangsu Linggu: 1730 (stable); Anhui Haoyuan: 1700 (stable); Inner Mongolia Boda: 1450 (stable); Shaanxi Shanhua’s direct sales: 1626 (stable); Xinjiang Yankuang: 1360 (stable). In the Shandong region, the ex-factory price for small and medium-sized particles is 1,560–1,620 yuan per ton; the prevailing transaction price is around 1,550–1,600 yuan per ton. In the Linyi area, the market price for small and medium-sized particles is 1,630 yuan per ton, while in the Heze area it ranges from 1,630 to 1,640 yuan per ton. Some companies offer prices 10 yuan per ton lower. In the Hebei region, the ex-factory price for small particles is around 1,600–1,650 yuan per ton, with the prevailing transaction price at around 1,580–1,600 yuan per ton. The ex-factory price for large particles is around 1,680 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable for now. The large-particle production facility of Henan Jin Kai Urine has been shut down for maintenance due to equipment issues; it is expected to be offline for about ten days. The reference prices for large and medium-sized particles have dropped by another 20 yuan per ton, to 1,610 yuan per ton, with the final price to be determined upon further negotiation. Orders are placed in the early stage, with downstream industries making purchases as needed; new orders are moderate in volume, and shipments remain steady. Recently, the mainstream ex-factory prices of surrounding enterprises are around 1,570–1,590 yuan per ton. In the Henan region, the mainstream ex-factory price for small and medium-sized particles is 1,620–1,650 yuan per ton, with typical transaction prices ranging from 1,570–1,620 yuan per ton. Some companies have reduced their prices by 20–30 yuan per ton. In the Anhui region, the mainstream ex-factory price for small particles is around 1,680–1,720 yuan per ton, with a few companies offering prices 20 yuan lower. In the Jiangsu region, the mainstream prices for small and medium-sized particles are around 1,660–1,740 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable for now. In the Shanxi region, the price for small particles for external delivery is around 1,510–1,550 yuan per ton, while the price for large particles for new orders is around 1,550 yuan per ton; prices remain stable as well. In the Inner Mongolia region, the mainstream price for small and medium-sized particles for external delivery is around 1,440–1,520 yuan per ton, with the price for large particles being around 1,570 yuan per ton. Some manufacturers have reduced their prices by 10–20 yuan per ton. In the Hubei region, the mainstream ex-factory price for small particles is around 1,700 yuan per ton, with a reduction of 20 yuan per ton. In the Shaanxi region, the mainstream local sales price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,540–1,620 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In the Guangxi region, the mainstream wholesale price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,800 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In the Sichuan region, the mainstream ex-factory price for small and medium-sized particles is around 1,690–1,740 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In the Guangdong region, the mainstream wholesale price for small particles is around 1,800–1,820 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In the Xinjiang region, the typical transaction price is around 1,380–1,470 yuan per ton, with prices remaining stable. In the Jilin region, the transaction price for small particle urea is around 1,700–1,740 yuan per ton. Quotations remain stable. The transaction price for small-grained urea in Heilongjiang is around 1,660 yuan per ton; quotations remain stable as well. The freight-cost-based price for small-grained urea in Liaoning ranges from 1,660 to 1,720 yuan per ton, with the actual transaction price subject to negotiation. Quotations remain stable; the situation regarding factories’ willingness to purchase urea has not improved, and some traders in the market have begun to sell their inventory or take short positions. On the demand side, there is still no significant improvement. The two lake regions are currently in the fertilizer usage season; local factories are seeing relatively good sales, and there are signs of activity emerging in the markets along the rivers. It is hoped that this will create some opportunities in an otherwise sluggish market. Most of the country is in the off-season for fertilizer use; demand for agricultural urea is weak, with industrial users mainly making purchases to meet their essential needs. There is no significant change in the production capacity of urea manufacturers; the market supply is ample while demand remains weak. Downstream buyers are cautious in their purchasing decisions. Yuege Agri-Resources Network predicts that there will be no positive factors in the domestic urea market in the short term, and the market will continue to show a downward trend. However, at present, the downturn in the industry has significantly exacerbated the situation of supply exceeding demand. On the supply side, as June arrives, factories enter their maintenance period, resulting in a significant drop in daily production. Additionally, the need for fertilizer application in the north will coincide with market demand in the south; it is expected that the market will start to show reactions by late May.