Thread Content
If the prices of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium don’t rise, that would be good enough; compound fertilizers are on the verge of crying. Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2020-11-02 Clicks: 5 Recently, the prices of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers have all risen, and this has happened amid widespread skepticism. With such a situation, it’s inevitable to worry about the nightmare of a slow off-season and a weak peak season, which is a major concern for downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers. Urea: Benefits extend beyond price labeling Data from China Fertilizer Network shows that as of the end of October, the operational rate of the urea industry was around 54.59% ； The prevailing ex-factory price for small-grain urea in Shandong region is 1,750–1,770 yuan per ton (the same unit applies thereafter); the price at Linyi factories for purchasing this product is 1,810–1,820 yuan per ton ； The prevailing factory price for small-grained urea produced in the Northeast region is 1,770–1,790 yuan ； The offshore reference prices for large and small particles are $265–270. This round of price increases began in mid-October; half a month has passed since then, and the increase is around 100 yuan. In the same period last year, the operating rate of the urea industry was around 50.95% ； The mainstream ex-factory price for small-grain urea in Shandong region is 1,670–1,710 yuan, while the price at factories in Linyi is only 1,670 yuan ； The mainstream factory price for small-grained urea produced in the Northeast region is 1,690–1,740 yuan ； The offshore reference prices for large and small particles are $251–255. On a year-on-year basis, the average increase in urea prices is currently also around 100 yuan. The peak price of urea in 2019 was in April, while the peak price in 2020 was in March. Taking the ex-factory prices in Shandong region as an example, the former was close to 2,100 yuan, and the latter was around 1,800 yuan. In other words, current urea prices have risen to levels close to their annual peak. Recently, in addition to a series of tenders issued by India, increasing environmental regulations and rising natural gas prices have further fueled the uptrend in urea prices. Therefore, although some fluctuations are inevitable, there should still be room for further price increases in the future. Phosphatic ammonium: Even more popular than in autumn. Data from Zhongfei Net shows that as of the end of October, the operation rates of the monoammonium and diammonium industries were 49.04% and 41.36% respectively ； The prevailing ex-plant price for 55% phosphate monoammonium in Hubei is around 1,900 yuan, while the price for 64% diammonium phosphate shipped to Heilongjiang in the southwest region, including delivery costs, is 2,750 yuan ； The offshore reference price for 64% diammonium is $357–360. The price increase for monoammonium nitrate in this round started at the beginning of October, while the price of diammonium nitrate has been rising in stages since the second half of the year; the prices of these two types of products increased by nearly 100 yuan and over 200 yuan respectively. During the same period last year, the operation rates of the monoammonium and diammonium industries were 45.38% and 45.14% respectively ； The mainstream ex-plant price for 55% phosphate monoammonium in Hubei is around 1,850 yuan, while the quote for 64% diammonium sent to Heilongjiang in the southwest region is 2,650 yuan upon arrival at the station ； The offshore reference price for 64% diammonium is $309–312. On a year-on-year basis, the price of phosphatic ammonium has increased by 50–100 yuan at present. The peak prices for phosphatic ammonium in 2019 occurred at the beginning of the year; the ex-factory price for 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in Hubei was around 2,250 yuan, while the ex-factory price for 64% diammonium phosphate in the southwest region was as high as around 2,650 yuan. The peak price for monoammonium phosphate in 2020 was in March, at nearly 2,000 yuan, while the current price of 64% diammonium phosphate represents the highest level for this year. It can be said that the current situation in the phosphatic ammonium market is much more dynamic than it was during the autumn season; back then, attempts to raise the price of monoammonium phosphate failed several times, while offers for a higher price for diammonium phosphate received no interest. Currently, monoammonium phosphate is in short supply, while diammonium phosphate already has fixed purchase prices set. Relatively speaking, diammonium is more competitive, which is closely related to the favorable export situation. Potash fertilizers: Leading players all entering the market. Previously, the major importers of potash kept raising prices, stopping sales, and then raising prices again; recently, China’s leading domestic potash producers have responded by increasing their prices by 100 while others increase theirs by 80. The price of potassium chloride has risen by almost 300 yuan in just three months – a truly impressive trend! Although the price of potassium sulfate has declined at one point, it has now stabilized and even seen some rebounds. Currently, the operating rate in the Mannheim region is as high as 82%, compared to 54% during the same period last year. Despite the rapid increase in prices, the current prices of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate have not yet reached their highest levels for the year; the gap compared to their peak prices at the beginning of 2019 is as high as 500 yuan ； Compared to the same period last year, the prices of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate are currently also about 200 yuan lower. Among the three key nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium – it can be said that the price of potassium fertilizers increased earliest and by the most. However, both nitrogen and phosphorus prices are already higher than they were during the same period last year, while there is still a significant gap in terms of prices for potassium fertilizers ； When comparing the prices of individual nutrients, the price of potassium chloride is also the lowest. Perhaps this is the reason behind the continuous rise in the price of potassium chloride? Compound fertilizers: It’s not a crime to cry. Currently, the price of compound fertilizers is generally 100-200 yuan lower compared to the same period last year. Without comparison, there is no harm – is there any need to say more? Too many words just bring tears! Of course, this article merely uses simple recollections and comparisons to describe and highlight the current difficulties faced by compound fertilizer companies; it contains no hints or implications in any other regard. Readers are requested to **pay attention to this**. If you want to understand the overall market situation, objective negative factors as well as future development prospects, please continue to follow Zhongfei Network. (Adu)