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The impact of printing labels is minimal; what will happen with rising potassium prices and falling ammonium prices? Author/Source: China Fertilizer Network Date: 2020-12-07 Clicks: 9 Recently, an auction was held in India, with the lowest bid price being $284.66 per ton on a CIF basis for the west coast. At present, the typical ex-factory price of urea in Shandong is between 1,780 and 1,810 yuan per ton. In most areas in the north, the current price of urea differs from this lowest bid price by 70–80 yuan. The demand for urea in the domestic market has also been weak recently; industry experts believe that urea prices might decline. However, due to environmental warning signals issued in places such as Linyi, there has been a slight increase in urea prices. Yet, compound fertilizer manufacturers are not very confident about this trend and have little intention to purchase urea, opting instead to buy only as needed. Overall, the atmosphere in the urea market is relatively sluggish. The auction results in India have not provided the expected positive impact on the domestic urea market; rather, they seem to have had a negative effect. Factors such as environmental warnings may bring some benefits, but the supporting force is still insufficient at present. The phosphorus compound fertilizer conference also has little to do with urea; however, in previous years it had a significant impact on the compound fertilizer market. This year, the situation is different – some compound fertilizer manufacturers introduced certain policies before the conference and held marketing meetings in various regions. After the conference, the trends regarding winter stockpiling of compound fertilizers became clearer. After several price adjustments, prices of compound fertilizers rose to varying degrees in different areas, with increases generally exceeding 100 yuan. Although acceptance by end-users is not high at present, compound fertilizer manufacturers are determined to maintain high prices. Apart from purchasing urea as needed, what is the attitude towards potassium fertilizers and monoammonium phosphate? The market price of monoammonium phosphate has eased slightly, with fewer transactions at high prices. However, due to the large inventory still available, manufacturers maintain firm pricing. Currently, the standard ex-factory price for 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in Hubei is around 2100 yuan. Recently, some traders who had been hesitant to sell in the past have started to sell monoammonium phosphate; the current ex-factory price in cash terms is between 2030 and 2050 yuan, with only a few low-quality products available at prices below 2000 yuan. The ammonium phosphate purchased by compound fertilizer manufacturers in total is sufficient for production until March; these companies have slowed down their purchases recently, waiting for the previously acquired ammonium phosphate to arrive at the plants, with no major new purchase plans at present. Following the introduction of the new prices for potassium chloride in salt lakes, the market quotes from agents have also become clearer. The prevailing price for 60% potassium chloride at delivery points is 2050 yuan; however, actual transaction prices are generally in the range of 2020–2030 yuan. In some areas, higher-end transactions occur at 2080 yuan. Due to supply constraints, agents prioritize serving their key clients and can only take on small orders. It is expected that the price of potassium chloride will remain relatively stable, and any significant increase would require additional driving forces. Potassium sulfate has seen price increases, driven by rising prices of potassium chloride and supported by ample inventory levels; however, its prices are already high, leaving little room for further increases in the future. Some compound fertilizer manufacturers say that the stock of potassium fertilizer purchased earlier is sufficient to support production through February and March, and they will restock as suitable supply becomes available in the short term. In summary, we are currently in the phase of producing winter storage compound fertilizers, and there is a high level of attention paid to raw materials. Although some companies have already stocked up on a certain amount of raw materials, there is still significant interest in nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium-based raw materials due to their high prices; they will replenish their stock when appropriate opportunities arise. (Zhao Hongye)