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Energy & Chemical Industry Daily (2026.05.25): Coal prices stabilize and rise; the energy and chemical sector shows alternating strength

2026-05-25View Original

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🔥Key highlights: Coal prices in production areas have stopped falling and stabilized, with some local rebounds; port spot prices have stabilized and started to rise; Support for coal chemical plant maintenance strengthens, with methanol leading the gains ; Crude oil rebounds from lows; petrochemical costs support recovery ; Divergence among energy materials persists; lithium prices show limited decline ; Regional price differences for industrial gases have stabilized, with steady demand in the southeast. ⛏️ Coal | Origin, Ports, Bohai Sea Region, and Local Prices 【Shenhua Batuta (price includes freight; latest update: a decrease of 5 yuan/ton as of May 21st)】 Imported coal: 5800 kcal: 572–576 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan from early May); 5500 kcal: 537–540 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan); 5000 kcal: 466–469 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan). Prices under medium- to long-term contracts (latest figures for May): 5500 kcal: 535–540 yuan/ton (no change); 5000 kcal: 465–470 yuan/ton (no change). 【Ports/Bohai Sea Region (price includes freight)】 Huanghua Port, Q5500: 870–874 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan); Qinhuangdao, Q5500: 867–871 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan). Bohai Sea region index: 864–867 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan). 【Local prices (at mines/upon delivery)】 Thermal coal, Q5500: Ordos – 590–594 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan); Yulin – 618–622 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan). Coking coal: Gujiao – 1325–1335 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan); Tangshan – 1595–1605 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan). Coal tar (Northwest region): 3400–3440 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan). 【Demand and plants】 Demand: Daily consumption of coal for chemical industries in North China increased by 1% compared to the previous period ; Inventory at ports in East China is around 25.5 million tons, a decrease of 16% year-on-year ; South China begins preparations for the peak summer period, with power plants’ daily consumption rising. Equipment: Capacity utilization in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 90%; security inspections continue ; Coking operation rate: 82% ; Efficient logistics in Beigang, with an increasing share of long-term contracts. Overall situation: Prices in the place of origin are rising, port inventories provide support at low levels; a rebound has begun at the end of the off-season, with prices expected to remain stable but on an upward trend in the short term. 🧪 Coal-based chemicals | Prices, demand, and production facilities 【Price ranges (ex-factory / delivered)】 Methanol: Northwest 2760-2780 (↑20), East China 3500-3520 (↑20). Coal-derived PE/PP: Northwest PE 8320-8360 (↑10), PP 8670-8710 (↑10). Ethylene glycol: Northwest 5080-5100 (↑10) ; Urea 2320-2340 (↑10) [Demand and Plants] Demand: Stable demand for formaldehyde and MTO ; Improvement in packaging tube orders ; Stockpiling of compound fertilizers is coming to an end, with increased support from industrial demand. Facilities: The utilization rate of methanol production facilities in the northwest is 88%, with multiple facilities under maintenance ; The operating rate of coal-based olefins is 92%, with partial maintenance work in progress. Overall situation: Maintenance efforts have led to a reduction in supply; supplies in the northwest are tight, while premiums in East China have recovered, sparking a strong rebound. 🛢️ Petrochemicals | Prices, Demand, Plants 【Price Ranges】 Crude oil: Brent at $103.5–104.1 per barrel (↑0.9%), WTI at $96.5–97.0 per barrel (↑0.7%). Propylene/phenol: Propylene in North China at 8820–8860 yuan per ton (↑20), phenol at 8220–8260 yuan per ton (↑20). PVC: 6120–6260 yuan per ton (↑20) ; Propane 7250-7270 (↑10) ; Fuel oil: 6,090 yuan/ton (↑10) 【Demand and Plants】 Demand: There is a recovery in necessary replenishments by downstream users, slight improvement in transactions in the real estate sector, and stable to positive trends in export orders. Equipment: The operating rate of refineries in East China is 92%, while that of local refineries is 80% ; The MDI plants are operating at full capacity, with low inventory levels. Overall situation: Crude oil has rebounded from its lows, with costs providing support for recovery; chemical products are showing moderate strength with fluctuations; the real estate sector is stabilizing and recovering. 🔋 Energy Materials | Prices, Demand, Equipment 【Price Ranges】 Battery-grade lithium carbonate: Jiangxi – 163,000–165,000 yuan/ton (↓1,000 yuan); East China – 166,000–168,000 yuan/ton (↓1,000 yuan). Industrial silicon: Northwest – 12,820–12,880 yuan/ton (↑20 yuan); East China – 13,520–13,580 yuan/ton (↑20 yuan). Electrolytic aluminum: 18,720–18,760 yuan/ton (↑20 yuan) ; Polysilicon: 16,660 yuan/ton (↓10) 【Demand and Applications】 Demand: Stable demand driven by new energy vehicles and energy storage ; Demand for polysilicon remains weak, and support from real estate completions is limited. Equipment: Lithium salt lakes at full production capacity, high inventory levels ; The operating rate of industrial silicon is 87% ; The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum production is 93%. Overall situation: The divergence between supply and demand persists; lithium prices show a slight improvement in weakness, while industrial metals fluctuate moderately supported by costs. 💨 Industrial Gases | Prices, Demand, and Equipment 【Price Ranges】 Liquid oxygen: Northwest 415-435 (↑5), East China 540-550 (↑5). Liquid nitrogen: Inner Mongolia 335-345 (↑5), Zhejiang 505-515 (↑5). High-purity helium: 161-163 yuan/m³ (↑1). 【Demand and Equipment】 Demand: Stable demand for use in metallurgy and chemical industries in the Northwest ; Demand for electronic semiconductors in East China is strong, with active purchasing activity. Facility: Northwest Air Separation at full capacity ; New production capacity in East China comes online, leading to stable supply ; The import of specialty gases is tight. Overall situation: Regional price differences have stabilized; bulk gases are showing signs of recovery, while specialty gases exhibit strong resistance to price drops due to import constraints. 📈 Industry trends and future outlook: Currently, the energy and chemicals sector shows a stabilization and recovery in coal usage, increased maintenance activities in coal-based chemical industries, a rebound in the petrochemical sector alongside rising oil prices, continued divergence among different material sectors, and a stable pattern in the gas industry on a regional level. Supply and demand landscape: Supply in the northwest remains firm, demand in East China is on the rise, and stockpiling has begun in South China; overall, the situation is shifting from a weak balance back to a tight balance. Competitive landscape: Increased price control power of state-owned coal enterprises ; Repair of the petrochemical cost-driven logic ; Increased differentiation in the materials industry ; Competition in gas distribution is intensifying. Short-term outlook: As the peak summer season approaches, coal prices are expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend; coal chemical prices will fluctuate at high levels; petrochemical prices will move in line with crude oil prices; there will continue to be variations among different materials; and gas price spreads will remain fixed. Pay close attention to production area safety inspections, geopolitical risks related to crude oil, and the pace of inventory replenishment at downstream levels. Shared from the WeChat official account 【Huayu Jingyan】: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_BiAxp0yv5NBdBC3GKwLaw

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